midterms again: will the republicans flip control of the government

by Jonah Rand, Editor

National News, Politics

If you asked my AP Government class what the top issues on the ballot for the 2022 midterms were, you would get three answers: climate change, abortion, and the economy. These answers do not represent the views of Americans as a whole or even all teenagers at Kamiak, but they do offer a glimpse into the views of young Washington students who are highly connected to the political and global issues around them.

Republicans were projected to ride a red wave this year, given that Congress has shifted to the non-presidential party in nearly every midterm election for the past several years. In the Senate, Republicans were favored to win a majority in early to mid-2022, but Dobbs v. Jackson, the landmark Supreme Court case giving the right to regulate abortion to the states rather than the federal government, flipped the projections: Democrats were predicted a net 1 pick up in the Senate, most likely in the state of Pennsylvania. Still, Democrats and Republicans were predicted to have a narrow battle for Senate seats in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona.

Democrats played all their cards, especially when it came to the issue of abortion. With Roe v. Wade overturned by the 6-3 conservative majority of the Supreme Court, pro-choice women across America felt that their bodily autonomy—their right of choice—was threatened. Republicans used their classic but reliable strategy of focusing on economic policies—appealing positions for voters concerned about inflation—and crime reduction. These same issues played out in our Senate race between Tiffany Smiley and Patty Murray in Washington State.

With one-third of the Senate, all of the House, and several local seats up for grabs, there is a lot to unpack in the 2022 midterm election results.

Florida continued its trend toward the Republican Party. Marco Rubio, the Republican nominee for Senator in Florida, had a major success in Miami-Dade county, winning 54.3% of the vote. After large canvassing efforts and outreach to Cuban and other Latino communities across the county, Republicans were able to flip the former Democratic stronghold and sought-after political powerhouse of Florida.

Ron Desantis (R), a 2024 presidential hopeful running for re-election as Governor of Florida, decisively won the state with a similar platform to Donald Trump but a larger margin of victory.

Gen Zers had a welcome sight when Maxwell Frost (D), the first ever Gen Z federal lawmaker, won Florida’s 10th congressional district, just outside of Orlando. Frost is known for his work on March for Our Lives — a gun control advocacy organization born out of the devastating Parkland High School shooting.

Florida’s neighbor to the north — Georgia — held a Senate race to reinstate current Sen. Rafael Warnock (D) for a six-year term, or elect former football player and Trump-backed candidate Herschel Walker (R). With over 99 percent of the vote counted, neither received the vote of over 50% of the state, so the election will go to a run-off on December 6th. The run-off is sure to gain national attention.

In the Southwest, both Arizona and Nevada held highly competitive Senate races. In Arizona, Mark Kelly (D) was running for re-election against competitor Blake Masters (R). On Friday night, after an influx of 80,000 — votes mostly delegated to Kelly — he was finally projected as the winner. In Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto (D), the first Latina elected to the Senate ran for re-election and won against competitor Adam Laxalt (R). Both races are vitally important to the Republicans and Democrats, with the former party seeking to regain power from the Democrats in Congress and restore the economy — the latter party hoping to continue its spending agenda and ensure Joe Biden a successful presidency.

Washington State — our home — held a Senate election between Patty Murray, a longtime Senate Democrat up for reelection, and Tiffany Smiley, a Republican. Murray faced one of her toughest races yet in her bid for her sixth term in office: her race was forecasted as “likely Democrat” rather than the typical “safe” rating given to Democrats in almost every election cycle in Washington. Even so, Murray beat Smiley with a 14% lead across Washington State.

Our House delegation was up for a change as well. In our home district of WA-2nd, Rick Larsen (D), a long-time congressman for northwestern Washington, won against Republican challenger Dan Matthews. In WA-3rd, where Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez (D) narrowly beat Trump-backed Joe Kent (R), who ousted incumbent Jamie Hererra Butler in the Republican primaries. Gluesenkamp Pérez won by 0.6% or just around 4,600 votes, with the majority of her support coming from Vancouver, WA and the coastal cities of Aberdeen and Ocean Shores. Washington's other hotbed House race was WA-8th (spanning from Marysville to Ellensburg and Sammamish to Chelan), where Kim Schrier (D) beat former King County official Matt Larkin ® by just over 6.5% of the vote.

While Republicans succeeded in regaining control of some parts of the government, they performed poorly compared to the precedent. The Republicans have succeeded in gaining a majority in the House, but this majority is comparable to the margin some Republicans mocked the Democrats for having earlier this year. 

While the Democrats and Republicans were both on the edge of their seats for the duration of election week waiting for the results determining the Senate majority, Cortez Masto’s marginal win in Nevada brought good news for the Democrats, who only need 50 out of 100 seats for a Senate majority with VP Kamala Harris breaking the tie. Georgia will still hold a nail-biting run-off election projected to be crucial to the final Senate majority either giving Democrats a larger majority with their 51st seat thus enabling them to circumvent West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin’s conservative requests or handing over more power to the Republicans.

With seemingly no end to political tension across the nation, the stakes for Republicans and Democrats are equally high as they compete for the power to fulfill their promises — or break them.

DISCLAIMER: The opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints expressed by the various authors in this paper do not necessarily reflect the opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints of Kamiak High School or The Gauntlet. 

Sources

New York Times Politics Staff. “Washington Election Results.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 8 Nov. 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-washington.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=election-results&context=election_recirc®ion=StateNavMenu.