messy midterms: an election after trump
by Jonah Rand, Reporter/Treasurer
Current Events
While other nations would not usually see a murmur campaign rivalry more than ten months from an election, American politics hastily began our democratic tradition. After what seems like endless political turmoil, is it possible there could be calmer seas in 2022? Or will it heighten again to be the most heated midterms in the 21st century?
Though the president is not up for reelection, his popularity will shape the 2022 midterms. Biden’s popularity fell to around 42% and stabilized in the first quarter, as seen in the 2018 midterms with a blue wave that brought the house, and narrowly the Senate, into Democrat control. Pundits have foretold that the political tides will follow its pattern and result in a red wave year.
The 2022 midterms are not only a testament to Biden’s and Democrats' performance under a trifecta but also the first for the Democrats in a decade during a year with a new electoral college map. Republican redistricting efforts have been struck against by Democrats in the courts and blatantly gerrymandering themselves. However, as it appears, the Republicans seemingly will not be as cut and dry as many Democratic house seats as predicted.
The 117th session of the House of Representatives was not at the forefront of headlines— Congressional politics swept through the House to the Senate where most of the negotiations occurred. There has been a flood of retirements out of Congress: 26 democrats and 14 republicans, making Democrat control inch further towards the edge of the cliff. However, the House is home to the further radical sides of both the Republican Party and Democratic Party. The most significant split, though, is over narratives of the January 6th attack on the Capitol and Donald Trump’s involvement between democrats with “The Squad” in the 116th congressional session, and Republicans.
Liz Cheney has become the face of the anti-Trump Republicans in the House, working with Democrats on the January 6th Committee. The Republicans who voted to impeach Trump have not been as vocal as Cheney, yet they still face mass outrage by Trump loyalists nationally and locally in their districts. In Washington state specifically, two Republicans face Trump loyalist primary competitors: Dan Newhouse (WA-4) and Jamie Herrera Beutler (WA-3). Newhouse will face Loren Culp (R), who ran against Jay Inslee in the 2020 Washington gubernatorial election. Joe Kent (R) will run against Beutler; he publicly recanted his denial of Joe Biden's electoral victory. Unlike Beutler, he did not connect Trump and the January 6th attack. This is only the story of two Republican incumbents who rarely, if not at all, voted outside their party line in their voting history.
The Senate: what seems to be the traffic light of modern-day American politics and where a bill goes to die. Democrats have struggled with their razor-thin 50-50 Senate margin to pass their stacked legislative agenda. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has been a significant roadblock as Democrats aim to tiptoe around him. Yet in turn, the progressives have stirred upheaval in the House, especially members of “The Squad,” who demand items they sought on their agenda. However, Manchin is not the only moderate force in the Senate; there must be another honorable mention for Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ). She was elected in a swing state that shyly went to Biden, and Manchin represents one of the reddest states in the U.S. Therefore, there is more leeway for her moderate view as in some cases, they go against her state party’s view.
The Democrats snuck in two unexpected Senate victories in the Georgia senatorial runoffs of 2021. Both Jon Ossoff and Rafael Warnock won over their incumbent competitors on 1.2% and 2% margins, respectively. Now, Warnock is up to defend his seat for a full, six-year term. He faces Herschel Walker (R), a political newcomer who was previously a football player. Partisan polling from the National Republican Senatorial Committee shows that Walker is ahead by 1%. Still, old, yet bipartisan polling from Redfield and Wilton Strategies shows that Warnock is 6% ahead. Warnock will be given a run for his money in what is, politically predicted, to be a red wave year. Much like his win, he may lose by a razor-thin margin.
Moving up the East Coast, Pennsylvania has an open seat with Republican Patrick Toomey’s retirement. The Republican Party has found at least two contenders to be their primary picks. The spotlight is upon Dr. Oz, Mehmet Oz, a known TV personality. The Democrats, equally eager for a primary, have a front-runner: John Fetterman, the state's current Lieutenant Governor. He has competition from a rising young moderate Democrat, Conor Lamb, known for being one of the only young moderates for the party in a sea of millennial and Gen-Z progressives. Pennsylvania— a swing state that was the marker for the end of the 2022 election, pushing Biden beyond the 270 electoral votes needed— has the opportunity to turn towards its Republican swing status or return as a tilt blue state that the Democrats need for an unlikely win.
The southwest is home to two swing states Biden won in 2020 due to only one county: Nevada’sClark County (Las Vegas), and Arizona’s Maricopa County (Phoenix). Nevada faced two solid opponents and the other still is scouting their opponent on the horizon. Catherine Cortez-Masto (D), the first woman from Nevada and nationally the first Latina to be elected into Senate, will run for her second term in the Senate. Her opponents took two separate paths to be the Republican primary winners: Sam Brown, a purple heart recipient after a bomb blast in Afghanistan, has stuck to grassroots fundraising and is making impressive advancements as the non-establishment. Adam Laxalt, the former Attorney General of Nevada who missed out on the past three years of politics, has rejoined the game with establishment support. Laxalt, a military vet, was at the forefront of aiding the Trump campaign’s challenges to the election results in 2020 but failed to fully answer what his voting patterns would look like in office. With Laxalt as the front runner, Cortez-Masto will, like other Democrat senators, need to ardently defend her position.
Arizona has Democrat Mark Kelly, former astronaut and gun rights activist, re-running after his temporary term the past year to extend his seat by six years. He is currently scraping ahead as multiple candidates are seeking to win his seat in a Republican favored year—yet his true opponent will be revealed in what looks to be an interesting Republican primary.
We are approaching the event horizon of the 2022 midterms, and before we get sucked into the black hole of political campaigns in the fall of 2022, there are many challenges for Democrats ahead. Biden, while overseeing a dysfunctional trifecta, it is still a trifecta that can guarantee him a smoother ride of his agenda through Congress. This year is a test for American politics without the voice of Trump as a sitting politician, but rather as a political voice guiding many in the Republican party. Democrats will need to stand the test of political patterns, and unless they can win over Americans, a red wave will ensue.
DISCLAIMER: The opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints expressed by the various authors in this paper do not necessarily reflect the opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints of Kamiak High School or The Gauntlet.