Publications
Peer-Reviewed Articles in Academic Journals
Has the Willingness to Work Fallen during the Covid Pandemic? (with Andreas Mueller and Ayşegül Şahin), Labour Economics (December 2022), 79, 102275.
Data: Baseline and counterfactual Aggregate Hours Gap series, 1994-2021 [Excel file]
More Data! Updated Aggregate Hours Gap and potential hours estimates (latest data: June 2023) [Excel file]
Job Search Behavior among the Employed and Non-Employed (with Andreas Mueller, Ayşegül Şahin, and Giorgio Topa), Econometrica (July, 2022), 90(4), pp. 1743–79. Journal Online Appendix Supplemental Appendix
Link: Access to public micro data for the New York Fed SCE Job Search Supplement (survey developed for this paper)
The Shadow Margins of Labor Market Slack (with with Andreas Mueller, Ayşegül Şahin, and Giorgio Topa ), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (December 2020), 52(S2), pp. 355-391.
Data: Updated Aggregate Hours Gap time series (latest data: August 2021) [Excel file] (more recent estimates available for "Has the Willingness to Work Fallen During the Covid Pandemic?" here.)
The Intensity of Job Search and Search Duration (with Marianna Kudlyak), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (July 2019), 11:3, pp. 327-57
Evidence on the Relationship between Recruiting and the Starting Wage (with Guido Menzio), Labour Economics, (March 2018), 50, pp. 67-79
Job Flows, Jobless Recoveries, and the Great Moderation, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, (April 2017), 80, pp. 152-170
Data: Spliced time-series of manufacturing job flows, 1947-2016 [Excel file]
Data: Extended BED job flow rates back to 1990 (private sector and manufacturing) [Excel file]
The Urban Density Premium across Establishments (with Matthew Freedman), Journal of Urban Economics (May 2016), 93, pp. 71-84
The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring (with Steven Davis and John Haltiwanger), Quarterly Journal of Economics (May 2013), 128(2), pp. 581-622
Data: Hiring, vacancy, and job-filling rate measures by establishment growth rates (also has worker flow rates from Davis et al., 2012, below [Excel file]
Data: Time series of job-filling rates, recruiting intensity, and vacancy duration, 2001-2023 (latest data: July 2023) [Excel file]
Recruiting Intensity During and After the Great Recession: National and Industry Evidence (with Steven Davis and John Haltiwanger), American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings (February 2012), 102(3), pp. 584-88
Earlier version (with additional results): NBER Working Paper No. 17782
Labor Market Flows in the Cross-Section and Over Time (with Steven Davis and John Haltiwanger), Journal of Monetary Economics, Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy special issue (January 2012), 59:1, pp. 1-18
Data: (Quarterly) Adjusted JOLTS worker flow estimates, 1990-2023 (latest data: 2023:Q2) [Excel file]
Note: See Excel file from Davis et al., 2013, for worker flow estimates by establishment growth rates from this paper.
The Relationship between the Establishment Age Distribution and Urban Growth, Journal of Regional Science (August 2011), 51:3, pp. 450-470
Business Volatility, Job Destruction and Unemployment (with Steven Davis, John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, and Javier Miranda), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (April 2010), 2:2, pp. 259-287
The Flow Approach to Labor Markets: New Data Sources and Micro-Macro Links (with Steven Davis and John Haltiwanger), Journal of Economic Perspectives (Summer 2006), 20:3, pp. 3-24
Academic Book Chapters
Adjusted Estimates of Worker Flows and Job Openings in JOLTS (with Steven Davis, John Haltiwanger, and Ian Rucker), in Labor in the New Economy, Katharine Abraham, Michael Harper, James Spletzer (eds.), Chicago Press (2010), pp. 187-216
Studying the Labor Market with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, in Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data, Timothy Dunne, J. Bradford Jensen and Mark J. Roberts (eds.), Chicago Press (2009), pp. 83-108
Chicago Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and BLS Publications
What Does Everything Besides the Unemployment Rate Tell Us About Labor Market Tightness? (with Levi Bognar, Elizabeth Kepner, and Emma LaGuardia), Chicago Fed Letter (December 2023), No. 491
The Relationship between Race and Ethnicity, Type of Work, and Covid-19 Infection Rates (with Daniel Hartley), Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Perspectives (July 2022), No. 2022-2
Earlier version: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Working Paper No. 2020-18 (August 2020)
How Do Unemployment Benefits Relate to Job Search Behavior? (with Ali Haider Ismail), Chicago Fed Letter (June 2020), No. 441
What Does Online Job Search Tell Us about the Labor Market? (with Marianna Kudlyak), Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Perspectives (May 2016), Vol. 40, No. 2016-1
Wage Growth, Inflation, and the Labor Share (with Lisa Barrow), Chicago Fed Letter (December 2015), No. 349
Job Switching and Wage Growth (with Alejandro Justiniano), Chicago Fed Letter (April 2015), No. 337
Note: See Labor Market Flows in the Cross-Section and Over Time above for the latest quit rate data series
Unemployment among Recent Veterans during the Great Recession (with Taft Foster), Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Perspectives, (2012), 37(1): 1-13
Is there a Skills Mismatch in the Labor Market? (with Bhashkar Mazumder), Chicago Fed Letter (July 2012), No. 300
How do Businesses Recruit?, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review (Fourth Quarter, 2011), pp. 9-17
Hiring, Job Loss, and the Severity of Recessions, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review (Second Quarter, 2010), pp. 16-24
Studying the Labor Market with BLS Labor Dynamics Data (with Zhi Boon, Charles Carson, and Randy Ilg), Monthly Labor Review (February 2008), pp. 3-15
Business Employment Dynamics (with James Spletzer, Akbar Sadeghi, Richard Clayton, and David Talan), Monthly Labor Review (April 2004), pp. 29-42
Job Flows, Establishment Characteristics, and Labor Market Dynamics in the U.S. Rust Belt Region, Monthly Labor Review, (September 2002), pp. 3-10
Job Creation and Job Destruction within Washington and Baltimore, Monthly Labor Review (September 2001), pp. 24-31
Blog Posts and Other Publications
Has the Willingness to Work Fallen during the Covid Pandemic?, IZA World of Labor, August 2022 (summary of paper by same name with Andreas Mueller and Ayşegül Şahin)
Recruiting Intensity: Why it's Critical for Understanding Fluctuations in the Labor Market, IZA World of Labor, July 2020 (Original version: April 2014)
Is the Unemployment Rate a Good Measure of People Currently Out of Work? (with Aastha Rajan), Chicago Fed Insights Blog (May 5, 2020)
Data: Updated time-series of the U-Cov measure and its components (last updated October 2021) [Excel file]
Potential Jobs Impacted by Covid-19 (with Dan Aaronson and Helen Burkhardt), Chicago Fed Insights Blog (Original post: April 1, 2020. Revised April 9, 2020)
Predicting the Unemployment Rate in a Time of Coronavirus, Chicago Fed Insights Blog (April 7, 2020)
Do the Employed Get Better Job Offers? (with Thomas Haasl, Andreas Mueller, Ayşegül Şahin, and Giorgio Topa), New York Fed Liberty Street Blog (April 4, 2018)
The Challenges Facing Veteran Workers (with Thomas Haasl), in Investing in America’s Workforce: Improving Outcomes for Workers and Employers, Upjohn Institute (2018)
How Do People Find Jobs? (with Andreas Mueller, Ayşegül Şahin, Rachel Schuh, and Giorgio Topa), New York Fed Liberty Street Blog (April 5, 2017)
Analyzing the JOLTS Hires and Separations Data, 2005 Proceedings of the American Statistical Association
Longitudinal Analysis of Economic Impacts: A Case Study of the Rust Belt, 2002 Proceedings of the American Statistical Association
A Benchmarking Study of the Lehigh Valley (with Stephanie Laski), University Avenue Undergraduate Journal of Economics (1999), 3(1), Article 1