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Senior Economist and Economic Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of ChicagoResearch, Policy & Public Engagement Dept.230 S. LaSalle Dr., Chicago, IL 60604Phone: (312) 322-5274email: jfaberman at frbchi dot org
Federal Reserve Bank of ChicagoResearch, Policy & Public Engagement Dept.230 S. LaSalle Dr., Chicago, IL 60604Phone: (312) 322-5274email: jfaberman at frbchi dot org
Visit my Chicago Fed webpage here
I am a Senior Economist and Economic Advisor in the Economic Research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. I am also a Research Fellow at the Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) and currently serve as a member of the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee (FESAC). I also occasionally teach adjunct at the Chicago Booth School of Business.
My research focuses on the labor market, at both the micro and macro levels, with a particular focus on the interactions between employers and workers. My projects have studied individual job search behavior; employer hiring, recruitment, and growth; and worker and firm dynamics as they relate to urban growth and agglomeration.
Prior to joining the Chicago Fed, I served as a senior economist with the Philadelphia Fed and as a research economist with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I received my B.S. and B.A. from Lehigh University, and my M.S. and Ph.D. in economics from the University of Maryland, College Park.
Labor Market Pictures!
Labor Market Pictures!
Here are some useful labor market charts collected from my research. I occasionally update the time-series data depicted here. The underlying estimates for many of these charts are available under each related publication in my 'Publications' tab.
Hiring and Vacancies in the Cross Section
Hiring and Vacancies in the Cross Section
- Hiring, vacancies, and the job-filling rate all increase sharply with a business' growth rate (job creation)
- Hiring, vacancies, and the job-filling rate are roughly constant (but positive) with respect to the size of a business' employment contraction (job destruction)
Source: Davis, Faberman, and Haltiwanger, "The Establishment Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring" (2013 Quarterly Journal of Economics)
Job Separations in the Cross Section
Job Separations in the Cross Section
- Layoffs rise strongly with the size of a business' employment contraction (job destruction)
- Quits rise strongly with smaller business contractions, but are roughly constant with respect to larger contractions
- There a sizable amount of layoffs, and especially quits, among expanding businesses.
Source: Davis, Faberman, and Haltiwanger, "Labor Market Flows in the Cross-Section and over Time" (2012 Journal of Monetary Economics)
Hiring and Job Creation over the Business Cycle
Hiring and Job Creation over the Business Cycle
- Hiring and job creation rates are strongly procyclical
- The hiring rate is considerably more volatile than the job creation rate
Source: Updated estimates based on Davis, Faberman, and Haltiwanger, "Labor Market Flows in the Cross-Section and over Time" (2012 Journal of Monetary Economics)
Separations and Job Destruction over the Business Cycle
Separations and Job Destruction over the Business Cycle
- Layoffs and job destruction rates are strongly countercyclical. They both spike sharply during recessions and track each other closely
- Quits are strongly procyclical. The track hiring and job creation more closely than layoffs and job destruction over time.
- Together, these facts imply that total separations (layoffs + quits) are somewhat acyclical.
Source: Updated estimates based on Davis, Faberman, and Haltiwanger, "Labor Market Flows in the Cross-Section and over Time" (2012 Journal of Monetary Economics)
Vacancies and Job-Filling over the Business Cycle
Vacancies and Job-Filling over the Business Cycle
- Hiring and vacancy rates are strongly procyclical
- The job-filling rate is strongly countercyclical.. It is harder for businesses to fill their vacancies when labor markets are tight
Source: Updated estimates based on Davis, Faberman, and Haltiwanger, "The Establishment Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring" (2013 Quarterly Journal of Economics)
Quits, Wage Growth, and Inflation
Quits, Wage Growth, and Inflation
- The quit rate is a strong predictor of (nominal) wage and salary growth
- The quit rate is a nearly-as-strong predictor of (core) inflation.
Source: Updated estimates based on Faberman, and Justiniano, "Job Switching and Wage Growth" (2015 Chicago Fed Letter)
Job Search Effort and Job Offers
Job Search Effort and Job Offers
- The unemployed search intensely for work: they make up 4 percent of employment but account for 34 percent of all job applications sent
- Yet, the employed receive the majority (72 percent ) of job offers, with 33 percent going to the employed who are not looking for work
Source: Faberman, Mueller, Şahin, and Topa, "Job Search Behavior among the Employed and Non-Employed" (2022 Econometrica)
Job Search Effort and the "Job Ladder"
Job Search Effort and the "Job Ladder"
- Job search effort among the employed (measured as job applications sent) falls with their current wage
- The evidence is consistent with declining returns to job search as workers move up the "job ladder" over their careers
Source: Faberman, Mueller, Şahin, and Topa, "Job Search Behavior among the Employed and Non-Employed" (2022 Econometrica)
The Aggregate Hours Gap and Labor Market Underutilization
The Aggregate Hours Gap and Labor Market Underutilization
- The Aggregate Hours Gap measures labor market underutilization as the difference between (all) individuals' desired work hours and actual work hours over time
- Since the Great Recession, the Aggregate Hours Gap implies a greater degree of cyclicality than the unemployment rate, driven primarily by changes in the (potential) labor supply of those out of the labor force
Source: Updated estimates based on Faberman, Mueller, and Şahin, "Has the Willingness to Work Fallen during the Covid Pandemic?" (2022 Labour Economics)
Desired Work Hours over the Business Cycle
Desired Work Hours over the Business Cycle
- Potential work hours, measured as the average desired weekly work hours across all individuals, provides a broader measure of labor supply than the labor force participation rate.
- During the Covid pandemic, potential work hours fell twice as much as the labor force participation rate, suggesting a considerably tighter labor market. The decline was driven by a sharp drop by those out of the labor force who were willing to consider at least part-time work
Source: Updated estimates based on Faberman, Mueller, and Şahin, "Has the Willingness to Work Fallen during the Covid Pandemic?" (2022 Labour Economics)
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