Journal Publications
2025
Natural Resource Dependence and Monopolized Imports, with Rabah Arezki, Ana Margarida Fernandes, Federico Merchán, Tristan Reed. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 10339, accepted, Review of Economics and Statistics, VoxEU blog, World Bank blog [pdf]
Currencies in Turbulence: Exploring the Impact of Natural Disasters on Exchange Rates, with Anh Nguyen, IMF Working Paper No. 2024/186 accepted, Journal of International Money and Finance [pdf]
Rising Temperature, Nuanced Effects: Evidence from Seasonal and Sectoral Data, with Samuel Pienknagura, IMF Working Paper No. 2024/202 , accepted Environmental and Resource Economics [pdf]
2024
Beyond the Annual Averages: Impact of Seasonal Temperature on Employment Growth in US Counties, IMF Working Paper No. 2023/142, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management [pdf]
Data Transparency and Growth Forecast Error, with Roberta Gatti, Daniel Lederman, Asif Islam, Rana Lotfi, Menna Mousa, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 10406 [pdf] Journal of International Money and Finance, ERF blog
Contagious Protests with Rabah Arezki, Simeon Djankov, and Alou Dama, Empirical Economics [pdf], VoxEU blog
2023
Calamities, Debt, and Growth in Developing Countries (2023), with Daniel Lederman, Rachel Yutin Fan, and Claudio Rojas IMF Economic Review, [pdf], Let's Talk Development Blog
Borrowing to Keep Up (with the Joneses): Inequality, Debt, and Conspicuous Consumption, with Sheheryar Banuri (2023) Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization [pdf]
Productivity Loss and Misallocation of Resources in Southeast Asia, with Francesca De Nicola and Norman Loayza (2023) Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, [pdf]
Multi-generational effects of school access in a developing country: Evidence from a mass education program in Vietnam (2023) with Trung Hoang Economics of Education Review, Volume 97, [pdf]
2022
On the Role of the Collateral Constraint Friction in the North-South Transmission of the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis (2022) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol 54(2), pp 707-728 [pdf] [online appendix], link to publication
The Great Recession and Job Loss Spillovers: Impact of Tradable Employment Shocks on Supporting Services (2022) The Annals of Regional Science, vol. 68(3), pages 789-815, with Shawheen Rezaei and Divya Agarwal, link to publication
Collateralized Borrowing Around the World: Insights from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys (2022) with Rong Qian and Rachel Yuting Fan, International Journal of Finance and Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 2420-2437 [pdf]
2021
The Long-run and Gender-equalizing Impacts of School Access: Evidence from the First Indochina War (2021) with Trung Hoang and Hai-anh Dang, Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol 70(1) [pdf]
Technology Adoption and the Middle-Income Trap: Lessons from the Middle East and East Asia, with Rabah Arezki and Rachel Yuting Fan, (2021), Review of Development Economics, vol 25(3), pp 1711-1740, [pdf], link to publication
2020
Labor market impacts and responses: The Economic Consequences of a Marine Environmental Disaster (2020) with Trung Hoang, Duong Le, and Nguyen Vuong, Journal of Development Economics, [pdf]
The Financial Costs of the US-China Trade Tensions: Evidence from East Asian Stock Markets (2020) with Francesca de Nicola and Martin Kessler, Review of World Economics [pdf]
Oil Price Declines Could Hurt U.S. Financial Markets: The Role of Oil Price Level (2020) with Huong Nguyen and Anh Pham, The Energy Journal 41 (5), pp 191-212, [pdf]
Is Resource Misallocation Leading to Productivity Gaps in Malaysia’s Manufacturing Sector? (2020) with Norman Loayza and Lay Lian Chuah, Singapore Economic Review, [pdf]
The U.S. kick: impact of U.S. market access on local labor markets in Vietnam (2020) with Trung Hoang, Economics of Transition, 28(2), pp 315-343, [pdf]
2017
Transitioning from low-income growth to high-income growth: is there a middle-income trap? (2017) with Maya Eden and David Bulman, Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, volume 22, issue 1, pp 5-28, [pdf]
Reprinted as Chapter 14 in Bihong Huang, Peter J. Morgan, and Naoyuki Yoshino (eds.), Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap in Asia: The Role of Trade, Manufacturing, and Finance (Tokyo: ADB Institute, 2018).
2016
Euro currency risk and the Geography of debt flows to Peripheral EMU (2016), with Eylem Ersal, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 68, pages 1-20, [pdf]
Consumption Baskets and Currency Choice in International Borrowing (2016), with Julien Bengui, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 67, pages 287-304 [pdf]
The cyclical nature of fiscal policy in Sub-Saharan Africa (2016) with Cesar Calderon, Journal of African Economies, 1-32, [pdf]
2015
Does the Minimum Wage affect employment: Evidence from the Manufacturing Sector in Indonesia (2015), with Ximena Del Carpio and Choon Wang, IZA Journal of Labor and Development, 4:17, [pdf]
2014
2013
Global Imbalances: Origins and Prospects (2013), with Luis Serven, World Bank Research Observer, (28), 191-21, [pdf]
2011
Valuation Effects with Transitory and Trend Productivity Shocks (2011) Journal of International Economics, 85, pp 245-255,[pdf]
Book Chapters
Reforming energy subsidies in the Middle East and North Africa: Easy pickings for climate policy or a political bombshell? (2021) with Rabah Arezki and Rachel Yuting Fan, in No Brainers and Low-Hanging Fruit in National Climate Policy, edited by Francesco Caselli, Alexander Ludwig, Rick van der Ploeg
The state of tourism in Africa during Covid-19 and beyond: Evidence from big data (2021), with Rabah Arezki, Alice Froidevaux, Thanh-Long Huynh, and Nicolas Salez, in Shaping Africa’s Post-Covid Recovery, edited by Rabah Arezki, Simeon Djankov, and Ugo Panizza
Coping with a dual shock: A perspective from the Middle East and North Africa (2020), with Rabah Arezki and Rachel Yuting Fan, in COVID-19 in Developing Economies, edited by Simeon Djankov and Ugo Panizza
Novel coronavirus hurts the Middle East and North Africa through many channels (2020), with Rabah Arezki, in Economics in the Time of Covid-19, edited by Richard Baldwin, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, [link]
Reconciling micro and macro-based estimates of technology adoption lags in a model of endogenous technology adoption (2016) with Maya Eden, in Understanding the Income and Efficiency Gap in Latin America and the Caribbean, edited by Jorge Thompson Araujo, Ekaterina Vostroknutova, Konstantin M. Wacker and Mateo Clavijo
Institutions and firms’ return to innovation: Evidence from the World Bank Enterprise Survey (2016) with Patricio Jaramillo, in Understanding the Income and Efficiency Gap in Latin America and the Caribbean, edited by Jorge Thompson Araujo, Ekaterina Vostroknutova, Konstantin M. Wacker and Mateo Clavijo
“Global Imbalances: Past and Future”, 2011, with Luis Serven in Managing Openness: Trade and Outward Oriented Growth after the Crisis, edited by Mona Haddad and Ben Shepherd