Climate - Structural
Persistent Temperature, Capital Structure, and the Long-run Level of Output, IMF Working Paper 2026/115 [pdf] NEW
Climate Change and the Erosion of Capital [pdf]
The Growth Effects of Natural Disasters: Evidence From A Novel Global Dataset Over 1970-2023, with Mehdi Raissi, Bruno Versailles, Alice Tianbo Zhang, IMF Working Paper 2026/106 [pdf] NEW
Climate Change Negotiations under the Shadow of History, with Sheheryar Banuri and Ernest Sergenti. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper WPS11160 [link]
Shedding Light on the Local Impact of Temperature, with Duong Le, Da Hoang, Nikola Spatafora, IMF Working Paper No. 2024/178 [link]
The Impact of House Prices on Internal Migration: The Case of Spain, with Ashwini Arulrajhan, Carlo Pizzinelli, and Ippei Shibata, IMF Working Paper WP/26/65 [pdf], NEW
AI
The Aggregate and Distributional Gains from AI: Global Evidence from Usage Data [pdf], with Rachel Yuting Fan NEW
Innovation in the Age of AI and Robots: Cross-Country Evidence on Firm Performance [pdf]
Aging economies and AI adoption: Firm-level evidence from the World Bank Enterprise surveys [pdf] NEW
Political Economy
The Political Costs of Oil Price Shocks, CESifo Working Paper Series 9763, CESifo, with Rabah Arezki, Simeon Djankov, and Ivan Yotzov, [pdf]
Reform Chatter and Democracy, with Rabah Arezki, Simeon Djankov, and Ivan Yotzov, VoxEU blog [pdf]