Climate and Environmental Economics
Beyond the Annual Averages: Impact of Seasonal Temperature on Employment Growth in US Counties (2024), IMF Working Paper No. 2023/142, [pdf] Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
Climate Change Negotiations under the Shadow of History, with Sheheryar Banuri and Ernest Sergenti. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper WPS11160 [link]
Understanding the Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Disasters (2025), with Alan Feng and Mercedes Garcia-Escribano, IMF Working Paper WP/25/46 [link] accepted IMF Economic Review
Shedding Light on the Local Impact of Temperature (2024), with Duong Le, Da Hoang, Nikola Spatafora, IMF Working Paper No. 2024/178 [link]
Currencies in Turbulence: Exploring the Impact of Natural Disasters on Exchange Rates (2025), with Anh Nguyen, IMF Working Paper No. 2024/186 [pdf] accepted, Journal of International Money and Finance
Rising Temperature, Nuanced Effects: Evidence from Seasonal and Sectoral Data (2025), with Samuel Pienknagura, IMF Working Paper No. 2024/202 [link] accepted, Environmental and Resource Economics
Reforming energy subsidies in the Middle East and North Africa: Easy pickings for climate policy or a political bombshell? (2021) with Rabah Arezki and Rachel Yuting Fan, in No Brainers and Low-Hanging Fruit in National Climate Policy, edited by Francesco Caselli, Alexander Ludwig, Rick van der Ploeg
Labor market impacts and responses: The Economic Consequences of a Marine Environmental Disaster (2020) with Trung Hoang, Duong Le, and Nguyen Vuong, Journal of Development Economics, [pdf]
Macro - Finance
Distributional Crowding Out Effects of Public Debt on Private Investment in Developing Economies, with Asif Islam, World Bank Policy Working Paper 10786 [link] R&R Journal of International Money & Finance
Demand-driven Propagation of Job Losses: Evidence from the Great Recession , with Jiaming Soh, R&R Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Data Transparency and Growth Forecast Error (2024) , with Roberta Gatti, Daniel Lederman, Asif Islam, Rana Lotfi, Menna Mousa, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 10406 [pdf] Journal of International Money and Finance
Calamities, Debt, and Growth in Developing Countries (2023), with Daniel Lederman, Rachel Yuting Fan, and Claudio Rojas [pdf] IMF Economic Review, link
Borrowing to Keep Up (with the Joneses): Inequality, Debt, and Conspicuous Consumption, with Sheheryar Banuri (2023) Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization [pdf]
On the Role of the Collateral Constraint Friction in the North-South Transmission of the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis (2022) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol 54(2), pp 707-728 [pdf] [online appendix]
Collateralized Borrowing Around the World: Insights from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys (2022) with Rong Qian and Rachel Yuting Fan, International Journal of Finance and Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 2420-2437 [pdf]
The Financial Costs of the US-China Trade Tensions: Evidence from East Asian Stock Markets (2020) with Francesca de Nicola and Martin Kessler, Review of World Economics [pdf]
How Oil Price Declines Could Hurt the Economy: the Aggregate Demand Channel, pdf with Anh Pham, Huong Nguyen, Caleb Cho, in progress
Oil Price Declines Could Hurt U.S. Financial Markets: The Role of Oil Price Level (2020) with Huong Nguyen and Anh Pham, The Energy Journal 41 (5), pp 191-212, [pdf]
Euro currency risk and the Geography of debt flows to Peripheral EMU (2016), with Eylem Ersal, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 68, pages 1-20, [pdf]
Consumption Baskets and Currency Choice in International Borrowing (2016), with Julien Bengui, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 67, pages 287-304 [pdf]
The cyclical nature of fiscal policy in Sub-Saharan Africa (2016) with Cesar Calderon, Journal of African Economies, 1-32, [pdf]
Demand Collapse or Credit Crunch? Evidence from the World Bank’s Financial Crisis Survey in Eastern Europe (2014), with Rong Qian, Journal of International Money and Finance, (47), 125–144, [pdf]
Global Imbalances: Origins and Prospects (2013), with Luis Serven, World Bank Research Observer, (28), 191-21, [pdf]
Valuation Effects with Transitory and Trend Productivity Shocks (2011) Journal of International Economics, 85, pp 245-255,[pdf]
Valuation Effects and External Adjustments [pdf]- Ph.D. Dissertation at the University of Maryland, College Park
Labor/Gender/Education Economics
Female-Worker Representation Effect : Gender Pay Variation in the Kuwaiti Civil Service (2023) with Mohamed Ihsan Ajwad, Simon Bilo, Ebtesam AlAnsari, Lama AlHumaidan and Faleh Alrashidi, Policy Research Working Paper Series 10509 [pdf] R&R Middle East Development Journal
Multi-generational effects of school access in a developing country: Evidence from a mass education program in Vietnam (2023) with Trung Hoang, Economics of Education Review [pdf]
The Great Recession and Job Loss Spillovers: Impact of Tradable Employment Shocks on Supporting Services (2022) The Annals of Regional Science, vol. 68(3), pages 789-815, with Shawheen Rezaei and Divya Agarwal, link to publication
The Long-run and Gender-equalizing Impacts of School Access: Evidence from the First Indochina War (2021) with Trung Hoang and Hai-anh Dang, Economic Development and Cultural Change, [pdf]
The U.S. kick: impact of U.S. market access on local labor markets in Vietnam (2020) with Trung Hoang, Economics of Transition, 28(2), pp 315-343, [pdf]
Does the Minimum Wage affect employment: Evidence from the Manufacturing Sector in Indonesia (2015), with Ximena Del Carpio and Choon Wang, IZA Journal of Labor and Development, 4:17, [pdf]
Economic Growth and Private Sector Development
Productivity Loss and Misallocation of Resources in Southeast Asia, with Francesca De Nicola and Norman Loayza (2023), Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, [link]
Technology Adoption and the Middle-Income Trap: Lessons from the Middle East and East Asia, with Rabah Arezki and Rachel Yuting Fan (2021), Review of Development Economics, [pdf]
Is Resource Misallocation Leading to Productivity Gaps in Malaysia’s Manufacturing Sector? (2020) with Norman Loayza and Lay Lian Chuah, Singapore Economic Review, [pdf]
Transitioning from low-income growth to high-income growth: is there a middle-income trap? (2017) with Maya Eden and David Bulman, Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, volume 22, issue 1, pp 5-28, [pdf]
Reprinted as Chapter 14 in Bihong Huang, Peter J. Morgan, and Naoyuki Yoshino (eds.), Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap in Asia: The Role of Trade, Manufacturing, and Finance (Tokyo: ADB Institute, 2018).
Resource Misallocation in Turkey, with Temel Taskin and Ayberk Yilmaz, Policy Research Working Paper No. 7780. [pdf]
Institutions and firms’ return to innovation: Evidence from the World Bank Enterprise Survey (2016) with Patricio Jaramillo, in Understanding the Income and Efficiency Gap in Latin America and the Caribbean, edited by Jorge Thompson Araujo, Ekaterina Vostroknutova, Konstantin M. Wacker and Mateo Clavijo
Political Economy
Natural Resource Dependence and Monopolized Imports (2025), with Rabah Arezki, Ana Margarida Fernandes, Federico Merchán, Tristan Reed. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 10339, [pdf] accepted, Review of Economics and Statistics
Contagious Protests with Rabah Arezki, Simeon Djankov, and Alou Dama (2024) Empirical Economics [pdf], VoxEU blog
The Political Costs of Oil Price Shocks, CESifo Working Paper Series 9763, CESifo, with Rabah Arezki, Simeon Djankov, and Ivan Yotzov, [pdf]
Reform Chatter and Democracy, with Rabah Arezki, Simeon Djankov, and Ivan Yotzov, VoxEU blog [pdf]
Covid Economics
The state of tourism in Africa during Covid-19 and beyond: Evidence from big data (2021), with Rabah Arezki, Alice Froidevaux, Thanh-Long Huynh, and Nicolas Salez, in Shaping Africa’s Post-Covid Recovery, edited by Rabah Arezki, Simeon Djankov and Ugo Panizza
Novel coronavirus hurts the Middle East and North Africa through many channels (2020), with Rabah Arezki, in Economics in the Time of Covid-19, edited by Richard Baldwin, Beatrice Weder di Mauro
Coping with a dual shock: A perspective from the Middle East and North Africa (2020), with Rabah Arezki and Rachel Yuting Fan, in COVID-19 in Developing Economies, edited by Simeon Djankov and Ugo Panizza