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Welcome
I am an applied economist at the World Bank's Development Research Group. This is my research page with links to publications and working papers.
My core objective is to be an honest broker. My analysis is attuned to political interests but not swayed by them.
** Throughout my career I’ve been drawn to questions about how economies grow, namely, how they build new capabilities, when demand limits their growth, and how policy can close the gap.
I am open to talk about:
* Education and preference revelation about economic policy, through presentations and follow-on workshops.
* Measurement and evaluation of reforms and public investments, especially at the state and local level.
* Building delivery units that coordinate the public- and private-sectors to achieve shared goals.
* Scientific research, especially with junior researchers asking novel questions.
New book!
Industrial Policy for Development: Approaches in the 21st century, with Ana Margarida Fernandes. March 17, 2026. This report helped the World Bank move beyond decades of skepticism toward industrial policy and gave governments a practical playbook for building strategic industries. Featured in The Atlantic, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, La Nacion, Valor Econômico, Roosevelt Institute, The Washington Post.
"This is a fantastically useful book. The unique focus on industrial policy realities on the ground, given countries’ own fiscal conditions and state capacities, shines throughout." - Dave Donaldson
"An unusual act of institutional candor" - Joseph Stilgitz
"Policymakers and practitioners would benefit from reading the book." Arkebe Oqubay
"This book restores structural transformation and diversification to the center of the development agenda, without nostalgia for a single canonical model. It makes the conversation about how countries do new things, not merely how they do more of existing things." - Ricardo Haussman
"An important contribution." - José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs
Working papers
Public-private Dialogue and Growth with Yi Jie Gwee. [New May 2026]
Quality Regulation Creates and Reallocates Trade with Lucas Zavala, Ana Fernandes, Ryan Haygood, and Jose-Daniel Reyes. [Revised April 2026]
Cartels, Antitrust Enforcement, and Industry Performance: Evidence from Mexico with Mariana Pereira Lopez, Ana Urrutia Arrieta, and Leonardo Iacovone. Policy Research working paper no. 10269; Impact Evaluation series. Presented at Forty-Sixth BREAD conference. 2023.
Assessing the Value of Market Access from Belt and Road projects, with Alexandr Trubetskoy. Policy Research working paper no. 8815. 2017.
Reallocation of Capital Across Space: The Case of Place-Based Industrial Policy in India. 2017.
Journal articles
Long-run Returns to Private Equity in Emerging Markets, with Shawn Cole, Martin Melecky and Florian Mölders. Management Science, vol 72, no. 3, March 2026, pp. 2041–2063. Blog with implications for EM investors in All About Finance.
Natural Resource Dependence and Monopolized Imports with Rabah Arezki, Ana Fernandes, Federico Merchán, and Ha Nguyen. Policy Research working paper no. 10339. Review of Economics and Statistics, July 14 2025. pp. 1-36.
Export-Led Industrial Policy for Developing Countries: Is There a Way to Pick Winners? Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol 38, no. 4, Fall 2024, pp. 3-26. [Lead Article]. Summary in Vox-Dev asking whether there is a "new growth model?". Summary Interview.
The High and Falling Price of Cement in Africa with Fabrizio Leone and Rocco Macchiavello. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, vol. 17, no. 2, April 2025, pp. 1–40. [Lead Article]
Presidential Address: Demand Side Constraints in Development: The Role of Market Size, Trade, and (In)Equality, with Pinelopi K. Goldberg. Econometrica, vol. 91, no. 6, November 2023, pp. 1915-1950. Paper was the basis for Goldberg's Presidential Address to the Econometric Society in 2021. Non-technical summary in Vox-Dev
Is the Global Economy De-globalizing? And if so, why? And what is next?, with Pinelopi K. Goldberg. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Spring 2023. Slides for BPEA Conference.
Financing Vaccine Equity, with Ruchir Agarwal. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 38 no. 4, October 2022. Summary by Glassman et al. for 2nd Global COVID-19 Summit. Summary in Devex. Video Policy Research Talk.
Using Individual-level Randomized Treatment to Learn about Market Structure, with Lorenzo Casaburi. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 58-90. October 2022. Relation to RCT methodology literature in Development Impact
Relationships on the Rocks: Contract Evolution in a Market for Ice, with Tarek Ghani. American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, vol. 14 no. 1, pp. 330-65. February 2022.
The Effects of the Coronavirus Pandemic in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: An Optimistic Preliminary Account, with Pinelopi K. Goldberg. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Summer 2020. December 2020 Update
Chiefs: Economic Development and Elite Control of Civil Society in Sierra Leone, with Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson. Journal of Political Economy, vol. 122 no. 2, pp. 319-368. April 2014. Online Technical Appendix. Data. Supplementary history of The Chiefdoms of Sierra Leone. Relation to literature on local government reform in Vox-EU
Disclosed policy work
Leveraging Foreign Direct Investment in Indonesia: Assessing Foreign Investor’s Use of Domestic Suppliers, with Mochamad Pasha and Alvaro Gonzalez. November, 2024
Policy Actions to Increase the Supply of Covid-19 Vaccines in the Short Term, with Mamta Murthi. August, 2021.
How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022, with Ruchir Agarwal. Slides from June 2, 2021 Presentation at Center for Global Development. Previously presented April 14 at the G20 High Level Independent Panel Small-Group discussion on R&D, Procurement and Manufacturing for Pandemic Preparedness and Response. World Bank Policy Research working paper no. 9632. Press references: Economic Times April 25. Financial Times April 25. Project Syndicate May 13. The Economist May 27.
Five Ways that COVID-19 Diagnostics Can Save Lives : Prioritizing Uses of Tests to Maximize Cost-Effectiveness with William Waites, David Manheim, Damien de Walque, Chiara Vallini, Roberta Gatti, and Timothy B. Hallett. March 2021. Earlier version prepared for the ACT-A Diagnostics Working Group in April 2020.
Creating Impact: The Promise of Impact Investing. International Finance Corporation. This will tell you all you need to know about ESG and Impact Investing. 2019.
The Large-Firm Wage Premium in Developing Economies, with Trang Thu Tran. Policy Research Working Paper No. 8997. 2019.
Bamako: An Engine of Growth and Service Delivery. World Bank. 2018
Cameroon City Competitiveness Diagnostic. World Bank. 2018.
Enhancing Economic Development and Job Creation in Addis Ababa: The Role of the City Administration. World Bank. 2018
From Regulators to Enablers: Role of City Governments in Economic Development of Greater Kampala. World Bank. 2017
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