Flávio Riva

Hi, my name is Flávio Riva. Welcome to my website!

I am an applied researcher at Instituto Mobilidade e Desenvolvimento Social (Imds).

I am interested in:

using causal inference tools to study the impacts of human capital formation policies;
Plataforma Impacto, an evidence repository on the design and impacts of policies implemented around the world;
learning how policy-makers extract meaning from diagrams —such as logic theories of change and problem trees— and the policies they implement.

Doctoral studies, Public Administration and Government (EAESP-FGV, 2022)

B.A. and an M.A. in Economics (EESP-FGV, 2016)

B.A. in Sociology/Anthropology (FFLCH-USP 2013)

Here are my Google Scholar and LinkedIn.

flavio.riva@imdsbrasil.org

Academic research

Artificial Intelligence, Writing Achievement, and Pedagogy: Evidence from High Schools in Brazil

with Bruno Ferman and Lycia Lima

October 2025, Submitted

Other materials: J-PAL Evidence to Policy | J-PAL Summary | AEA RCT Registry

Media Coverage: Nexo | Valor Econômico | O Globo | Porvir

Educational technologies with different mixes of inputs from artificial and human intelligence had similar effects on writing scores in a large-scale field experiment in Espírito Santo, Brazil. Teachers reacted by providing more of the individualized inputs they use to foster the development of complex skills.

Jovem Aprendiz Program, Employability, and Formal Labor Income: An Analysis of the First Generations Exposed to the Apprenticeship Law of 2000

with Raphael Corbi, Sergio Guimarães, Matheus Leal and Paulo Tafner

Imds Technical Note, 2025, non peer reviewed

Local labor markets in Brazil were differentially affected by a law that incentivized the adoption of formal apprenticeship contracts for teenagers. Leveraging age elegibility rules in a difference in difference framework, we find evidence that apprenticeships increase employment and earnings when participating individuals have 25 to 29 years.

Probability of Causation with Sample Selection: A Reanalysis of the Impacts of Jóvenes en Acción on Formality

with Vitor Possebom

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2024

Other materials: Arxiv ungated version.

This article identifies the probability of causation in the presence of sample selection. We show that the probability of causation is partially identified for individuals who are always observed regardless of treatment status, and derive sharp bounds under three increasingly restrictive sets of assumptions. We use experimental data from the Colombian job-training program Jóvenes en Acción to empirically illustrate the usefulness of our approach.

Technical Education, Non-Cognitive Skills and Labor Market Outcomes: Experimental Evidence from Brazil

with Juliana Camargo, Lycia Lima, and Andre Portela Souza

IZA Journal of Labor Economics, 2021

This paper describes the results of an evaluation of a public policy that offers scholarships to current and former public high school students to attend technical and vocational education courses free of charge. We used a waiting-list randomized controlled trial across four municipalities in a southern Brazilian State (Santa Catarina) to quantify the program's effects on school progression, labor market outcomes, and non-cognitive skills.

In progress

Parenting Interventions and Learning in Middle Childhood: Evidence from Brazil

with Carolina Melo

Effects of Childhood Access to Primary Health Care on Learning: Evidence from Brazil's Family Health Program

with Leticia Nunes and Pedro H. Chaves Maia

Formal Dual Apprenticeships and Teenagers' School-to-Work Transition: Evidence from Brazil's Jovem Aprendiz

with Raphael Corbi and Matheus Leal

Delivering Health at School and Learning: Evidence from Public Schools in Brazil

with Lia Braga and Rudi Rocha

Policy-related work

Plataforma Impacto is a collaborative Imds project to build standardized narratives of impacts of policies with potential impacts on human capital accumulation and social mobility, using friendly language and easy-to-use search tools. The website collects evidence of the field of empirical development economics, translating them in a simplified and organized way. Our dataset currently includes information on more 500 policies implemented around the world.

Support our work by sharing or by providing critics!

Policy goal... Where, when?

Details on design

Detailed narrative on impacts