Publications

Do Alternative Work Arrangements Substitute Standard Employment? Evidence from Worker-Level Data, with Fanfani. International Journal of Manpower, May 2025. [IZA][LAVOCE]

Concentration and Mergers: Evidence from Italian Labor Markets. Oxford Economic Papers, December 2024. [WP]

Monopsony and Rent Sharing: Evidence from Italian Hiring Subsidies, with Pacelli. Economics Letters, October 2024. [WP]

Employment Protection, Workforce Mix and Firm Performance, with Ardito, Berton and Pacelli. The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, June 2022. [WP]

Working Papers

Inverting the Chain? VAT Collection Regimes and Tax Compliance, with Cipullo, Gamannossi Degl'Innocenti, and Le Moglie. 

Ongoing

Negative Emotions and the Sex Market; Evidence from Market Transactions and Football Matches, with Ciacci, Corvasce, and Dragone.

Abstract We study the impact of emotional responses to professional football match outcomes on transactions and prices in the commercial sex market. Our findings indicate that football matches lead to an increase in sex work activity while prices and durations decrease. We decompose this effect into two components: the pure game effect and the emotional channel, observing substantial heterogeneity depending on the different emotions of home and away fans. We then develop a model to rationalize all the possible channels through which emotions affect demand for market sex.

The Effect of Opening a New High-Speed Railways Station on University Student Flows, with Bratti and Lippo. 

Abstract We exploit a quasi-experiment induced by the opening of a new high-speed rail station in Northern Italy (Mediopadana in Reggio Emilia) to examine how enhanced accessibility to and from a peripheral city affects student mobility, particularly college enrollment choices. Using a gravity model and a triple-difference strategy, we find that the new station significantly increased student mobility from origin municipalities to higher education destinations along the newly connected routes, primarily boosting inward mobility and fostering a “brain gain” effect. The impact was strongest for low-SES students, those who attended vocational secondary school tracks. Additionally, the new station increased both inward and outward mobility among the least academically oriented students.

The More, the Merrier? Scaling Up and Firm Performance, with Maida and Sonedda. 

Abstract This paper examines the effect of small firms' scaling on productivity and profitability using firm-level data combined with matched employer-employee data. To address endogeneity, we apply an instrumental variable approach, leveraging the 2012 Fornero apprenticeship reform, which introduced a mentoring scheme for apprentices and incentivized firms to have a specified percentage of employees as apprentices based on pre-reform size. Exploiting the reform’s exogenous thresholds, we find that scaling leads to increased hiring and apprenticeship contracts. However, value added, revenues, and capital rise less proportionally while operational measures and total factor productivity are unaffected, indicating no efficiency improvement.

Firm Recruitment under Guaranteed Minimum Income: Evidence from Italy’s Online Job Vacancy Data, with Bratti and Maida. 

Abstract This paper studies the potential distortive effects of Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) schemes on firm recruitment, using Italy as a case study. Leveraging rich Online Job Vacancies (OJV) data, we examine how the introduction of the GMI affects the number, duration, and characteristics of job postings. We implement a difference-in-IV strategy following Alsan et al. (2025), exploiting municipal variation in GMI exposure after its introduction. This approach allows us to identify the causal impact of a GMI on formal firm recruitment behavior. We find that firms more heavily exposed to the GMI experience an increase in the number and duration of postings, as well as in the likelihood of disclosing wages. We also find that the effects of the GMI are highly heterogeneous depending on the firm- and province-specific characteristics. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of how GMI schemes affect firm recruitment dynamics.

"Stay Away from Me:" Femicides and College Choices, with Bratti and Lippo. 

Abstract We investigate whether short-run exposure to femicide events influences students' decisions of tertiary education mobility and enrollment. Combining data from the Casa delle Donne NGO and the Anagrafe Nazionale degli Studenti, we construct a novel granular dataset describing enrollment flows by students' characteristics and destinations, distinguishing between movers (students enrolling out of their residence province) and stayers from each Italian municipality between 2009 and 2022. Leveraging the staggered occurrence of femicides across municipalities, we compare incoming students who are treated and those who are not over the years in municipalities with the same trends in social capital and organized crime incidence. Preliminary results indicate that experiencing a feminicide triggers an increase in movers, particularly towards female-populated courses, while leaving unaffected stayers. The strongest effects are observed among female students from technical institutes and are not driven by top-performing students. 

Local Labour Markets and Training Contracts, with Berton and Sonedda. 

Abstract We study agglomeration economies and knowledge spillovers as a route to long-term jobs started with training contracts. We break down macro-areas into quartiles of the number of active firms and the PISA maths test scores. Within these areas, we compare workers aged 29, who can be hired as apprentices, with those aged 30 who cannot, before and after a 2012 reform. We find that many firms close to each other help start open-ended jobs as apprentices because of lower transfer costs from and to firms. Yet, areas with many firms do not have more advantages in long-term jobs than others. A training contract to build long-term careers needs knowledge spillovers.

Is Temporary Work a Safety Risk? Analyzing the Impact on Workplace Accidents, with Navarini and Nisticò. 

Abstract This paper investigates the impact of temporary employment on work-related injuries. We leverage a 2018 Italian labor market reform that restricted temporary employment and adopt a Difference-in-Differences approach combined with a synthetic control method to address endogeneity concerns. Using granular administrative data on injuries and employment contracts, our results show no significant overall effect of the reform on injuries but reveal reductions in mild injuries, among high-risk individuals, such as men and foreign workers, and in highly concentrated local labor markets. The investigation of the potential mechanisms indicates that improved working conditions, and not reporting biases, drive the reductions. Overall, our findings suggest that policymakers should address other aspects of the labor market and not solely contract types to reduce accidents.

Workplace Accidents and Alternative Work Arrangements, with Mastrobuoni and Nisticò.

Abstract This study estimates the effect of extremely flexible labor market contracts (labor vouchers) on work-related injuries. We use administrative microdata on work injuries (INAIL) for the Tuscany region, leveraging the introduction of vouchers for the agricultural sector in 2008. Serious work-related injuries increase when more flexible labor contracts become available. We also exploit several other data sources to investigate the underlying mechanisms. Preliminary results suggest that the effect is driven by injuries of undeclared workers who sign vouchers right after the injury, in a last minute attempt to gain insurance coverage. Our findings are in line with those of Di Porto et al. (2022), who find that firms use vouchers to cover undeclared work

Other

Promoting Health and Wellness: A Survey on Corporate Wellness Practices in Emilia-Romagna, Italy, with Dragone, Barbieri, and Scrutinio. [link]

Per ogni fine c'è un nuovo inizio, with Amenta and Stagnaro. [WP] 

Directionality of spillovers in the EMU: Evidence from the EU sovereign debt Crisis, with Bombrezzi. 9th Giorgio Rota Best Paper Award. Published on the Quaderni del Premio «Giorgio Rota», n. 9, 2021 ISBN 978-88-94960-19-8. [SLIDES] [LAVOCE.INFO]

Voucher: uso e contestualizzazione alla luce del Covid-19, with Conte, Cavallotti, Inferrera, Navarini e Zufacchi. 2020, Working Paper, No 8. [WP]