Drylands are widespread across the western U.S. and around the world.  Plant communities and animal populations in drylands are strongly linked to patterns of water availability and will be altered by climate-driven shifts in soil moisture.  But, accurately projecting ecologically-relevant drought in drylands is difficult because soil moisture conditions that plants experience are shaped by complex interactions among weather, vegetation and soils.  To address this challenge, we utilize water balance modeling to estimate patterns of ecological drought in space and time.  Results are applied by scientists and managers in scenario planning, climate impact and adaptation frameworks, and vulnerability assessments. 

Projects: Future dryland resistance and resilience 

 Future ecological drought projections   

Natural resource managers recognize the challenge of climate change.  Managers, and policy-makers, need information about the effectiveness of management actions that show potential to sustain ecosystem services in the face of climate change.  Potential actions include assisted migration, grazing management, forest and woodland thinning, and targeted restoration practices.  However, the effectiveness of these options is often unknown.  Thus, we partner with resource managers to evaluate the outcomes of these actions in dryland ecosystems, and integrate the results into management operations. 

Projects: Future Pinyon-Juniper demography   
      Drought forecaster to enhance dryland restoration outcomes