Research Aims
Understand future ecological drought in drylands
Drylands are widespread across the western U.S. and around the world. Plant communities and animal populations in drylands are strongly linked to patterns of water availability and will be altered by climate-driven shifts in soil moisture. But, accurately projecting ecologically-relevant drought in drylands is difficult because soil moisture conditions that plants experience are shaped by complex interactions among weather, vegetation and soils. To address this challenge, we utilize water balance modeling to estimate patterns of ecological drought in space and time. Results are applied by scientists and managers in scenario planning, climate impact and adaptation frameworks, and vulnerability assessments.
Projects: Future dryland resistance and resilience
Support:
USGS Climate Adaptation Science Centers
National Park Service
Inform long-term planning under climate change
Climate change will impact ecosystems and natural resources in ways that vary across the western U.S. Anticipating the variable impact of climate change across landscapes and regions is critical to inform planning that maximizes the benefits of investments in conservation, restoration and vegetation treatments. However, ecological dynamics in dryland ecosystems are notoriously heterogeneous in space and time, and difficult to predict. Therefore, we use ecological simulation models, field measurements and remote sensing to assess how dryland ecosystems and ecosystem services will be impacted by global change in coming decades. We work with resource managers to integrate the results to inform conservation and restoration investments at local, landscape and regional scales.
Projects: PJ climate suitability - Future Sagebrush Habitat
Support:
US Fish and Wildlife Service
Bureau of Land Management
USGS Ecosystems Mission Area
Develop & evaluate climate adaptation actions
Natural resource managers recognize the challenge of climate change. Managers, and policy-makers, need information about the effectiveness of management actions that show potential to sustain ecosystem services in the face of climate change. Potential actions include assisted migration, grazing management, forest and woodland thinning, and targeted restoration practices. However, the effectiveness of these options is often unknown. Thus, we partner with resource managers to evaluate the outcomes of these actions in dryland ecosystems, and integrate the results into management operations.
Projects: PJ demography - Drought forecaster
Support:
USGS Climate Adaptation Science Centers
Bureau of Land Management
USGS Ecosystems Mission Area