Forecasting dryland restoration success

Background: In the western US, federal agencies manage millions of acres of drylands that experience frequent disturbance from fire, land use, and environmental change. Active restoration practices, such as direct seeding, are frequently used by land managers, and require support for and investment in the personnel and infrastructure needed for seed sourcing, production, and field seedings. But plant regeneration from seed remains a major bottleneck in reestablishing dryland plant communities from seed because rates of success are highly variable and may include complete failure. Federal agencies conduct restoration seedings over large spatial areas and in regions that exhibit high temporal variability. Therefore, we are (1) synthesizing existing research on the environmental variables that influence plant establishment in the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau and (2) building forecasts of plant establishment in the study regions. The literature synthesis will survey what is known about the environmental variables that drive regeneration and form the evidence base for forecasts of plant establishment.

Objectives:

1. Survey and synthesize existing research about the environmental variables that control germination, emergence, survival, and growth for species that are used in restoration in western US drylands.

2. Develop models for plant establishment that leverage the literature synthesis in objective 1. These models will predict establishment as a function of the environment.

3. Translate models developed in objective 2 into operational forecasts that use medium-range weather forecasts to predict the outcome of restoration seedings.

Approach: Early life history stages play a central role in determining successful plant establishment and germination. We aim to synthesize knowledge about the environmental variables that influence plant regeneration in the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau. Specifically, we seek to describe the state of knowledge about components of the regeneration niche: germination, emergence, survival, and growth. We will use the synthesis to build models for plant establishment, which we will combine with existing water balance models to predict when seeding species will lead to successful establishment. Forecasts for sagebrush establishment already form part of a decision support tool for restoration, the Land Treatment Exploration Tool, and we plan to expand the species that are represented in the tool to include perennial grasses and forbs.

Coming soon...