Lesson 10
Following on from Lesson 9, why is it correct to pass in this match when we win 22% of the time from from this position but when we pass our match equity is only 9% at 7a-1a Crawford?
Lets examine the match equity. In this game black has a 21.91% chance of winning and if black wins the score will be 2a-3a with an equity of 40.05%. As black has to win this game (which black will double next turn) and then win from there, the Match Winning Chances are 21.91% * 40.05% = 8.77%. That is worse than the 9.28% that black would have by passing now and the score being 7a-1a Crawford.