Covered in: The Loop
Average treatment effect on attitudes towards refugees.
Effects of UK Vaccination on EU attitudes.
ITT in standard deviations at the EU level (N = 26,502).
During crises, governments must justify extraordinary measures to maintain democratic legitimacy and public support, yet evidence on whether justifications affect public opinion remains limited. This paper studies this question by focusing on a particularly controversial and politicized case: the introduction and subsequent lifting of national border controls within the European Union in response to an increase or decrease in migration. In a pre-registered survey experiment (N=9,115) in Germany, France, and the Netherlands, we examined the impact of government justifications on public support. Building on analysis of German government communications (2013–2023), we manipulated justification aims (security, economic, administrative), process justifications (legal, effectiveness, solidarity), and individual cost information (cost, no cost). Overall, we found high baseline support for border controls. While providing a process justification increases political attitudes such as the perceived legitimacy of the policy and trust in the government actor, the differences between justification types are limited. We did not find an overall positive effect of providing a justification aim. Overall, treatment effects were largely homogeneous across subgroups. Instead, citizens were found to be most sensitive to the individual, practical costs of border controls, such as waiting times at the border and shortages of goods. This questions assumptions about political persuasion in polarized contexts. Concrete policy implications are more relevant than justificatory rhetoric once minimal procedural thresholds are met.
The European Union (EU) currently faces substantial challenges, including rising nationalist sentiments and contentious debates surrounding migration and intra-EU border controls. Despite open borders being celebrated as a key achievement of European integration, public support for reinstating border controls remains high. This paradox underscores the importance of examining how citizens define European identity and determine who belongs within this community. Our study moves beyond traditional categorisations of identity (exclusive national versus inclusive European) by investigating both individual self-identifications and the nuanced traits, values, and behaviors citizens associate with Europeanness. Employing an innovative mixed-methods approach, we analyze qualitative, open-text responses through latent semantic scaling (LSS), capturing identity dimensions that transcend the conventional civic-ethnic dichotomy. Comparative cross-national analysis in Germany, France, and the Netherlands further reveals how distinct political cultures and migration histories shape the meaning of European identity. By integrating self-identification with detailed explorations of identity content, we illuminate how identity influences public attitudes toward migration policies and intra-European border controls. This comprehensive approach contributes valuable insights to policymakers, enriches debates on European integration, and deepens our understanding of belonging and identity in an increasingly interconnected yet contested Europe.
Political trust reflects citizens’ evaluations of political actors, which is in part shaped by direct policy experience. Border closures during the COVID-19 pandemic offer an unusually salient policy encounter: they made state authority visible, interrupted routines, and also signalled who is protected and who is excluded. But the same measure may carry a different political meaning depending on its directionality, namely, whether one’s own government or a neighbouring state restricts entry. In this study, I argue that it is mainly the direction of a border closure that shapes how citizens interpret state action and update political trust. While one’s own government closing the borders can signal protection and control, the same action imposed by a neighbouring state may signal exclusion and loss of standing. Taking advantage of the geographically uneven and directionally asymmetric implementation of border controls across Germany’s nine international borders, I combine a three-wave panel survey of German residents (autumn 2020 to summer 2021) with residential proximity to affected borders. Results from change-score and two-way fixed effects models show that exposure to external-only closures, where neighbouring states restricted entry from Germany without German reciprocation, is indeed associated with a substantial and persistent decline in political trust. By contrast, exposure to closures initiated or reciprocated by the German government shows no comparable effect. The found patterns are not significantly stronger for political trust than for trust in science, pointing to a more general decline in trust. Taken together, the findings show that border closures function not only as epidemiological interventions but also as political acts whose directional asymmetry can influence how citizens evaluate state competence during crises.
Climate change is a global challenge that demands both individual action and coordinated policy responses. As a supranational body, the European Union (EU) is often viewed as a key actor in driving collective efforts to address the climate crisis. However, its effectiveness depends on the support and cooperation of its Member States. In this article, we explore whether exposure to an educational session emphasising the importance of EU coordination influences support for EU-led climate action. Partnering with the "More in 24" campaign -- an initiative designed to inform and engage young voters about the EU -- we conducted a randomised field experiment to assess the causal impact of an EU-educational workshop on high school students' attitudes towards climate change and the EU’s role in addressing it. Although perceived knowledge about the EU marginally increased, we find that the campaign did not increase students' opinion that the EU should have a greater role in fighting climate change, and had limited and insignificant effects on most related outcomes studied. These findings highlight the limits of short educational initiatives and the need for more sustained and intensive interventions to alter deeply held political attitudes.
Climate change is one of the greatest collective action problems we face as a society. Yet, the costs associated with reducing carbon emissions to address the changing climate continues to constrain the degree to which governments and voters make necessary changes. In this project, we study the conditions that induce voters to accept higher costs for collective climate action. Specifically, we are interested in how benchmarking the relative vulnerability to climate change and the relative costs associated with climate change policies vis-`a-vis other nations influence support for costly collective climate action in international organizations. Using a visual survey experiment fielded across all 27 European Union nations following the 2024 European Parliament elections, we examine the degree to which relatively vulnerability to the negative impacts of climate change and relative contribution to related costs shape voters’ support for costly climate change policies.
Do European Union funds affect voting behavior in local elections? Following the COVID-19 crisis, the European Union launched an unprecedented financial effort through the NextGeneration EU program, channeling billions of euros to support reforms and investments across different policy areas in all Member States. Using several empirical designs, including an observational, an RDDs and a DID strategy, this paper investigates whether these investments influenced electoral outcomes in Spain’s 2023 municipal elections. Despite the scale and policy relevance of the program and the opportunity to claim credit by mayors, we find no evidence that local allocations of recovery funds increased support for incumbent parties. These null results contrast with earlier works from other European funding programs, where EU-funded projects have yielded electoral rewards under favorable conditions, such as high visibility, political alignment, or clear attribution. In Spain, however, the political impact of EU spending appears to be absent, possibly due to the low visibility of projects, the complexity of fund administration, or the lack of clear political ownership. Our findings highlight the limits of top-down economic interventions in generating local political returns and call for a closer examination of the conditions under which supranational spending shapes electoral behavior.