Available services and models

Climate-Lab offers a number of services in several field of climate, and water science, and possesses a number of physically based models.

Services offered from Climate-Lab

Climate-lab possesses and is purchasing a network of instruments, some located in Politecnico di Milano (permanent test sites) and others with temporary location in relevant case study sites (temporary test sites). All instruments will be connected in network and data gathered in a proper HUB. In resume available tools are:

1) Tools for non conventional measurements of variables of interest in the field of climate change.

2) Fine resolution measurements of precipitation, stream flows, and sediment transport, and temperatures, ice and snow cover dynamics in the mountains.

3) Measurement tools (optical bands, mm) for atmospheric components measurements (gas and precipitation)

4) Radiometric instruments to evaluate optical-radiative properties of urban and building surfaces.

5) Micro-climatic analysis of green covers in urban environment.

6) Mobile analysers to survey pollutants emissions and concentration.

Services offered from Climate-Lab include

1) Downscaling, and operation of climate scenarios.

2) Assistance for climate based due diligence.

3) Hydro-climatic modeling, and flood assessment also under climate change.

4) Erosion, and sediment transport measuring, and modeling under climate change.

5) Simulation of avalanche dynamics, and avalanche hazard zoning.

Available models for water systems

Politecnico di Milano possesses a suite of proprietary, internally developed models, POLI-SUITE, usable for hydrological modeling in high altitude catchments, reservoirs’ multipurpose management, weather projections/forecast downscaling. The main model is POLI-HYDRO, including several sub-models, namely

POLI-HYDRO. A tool usable for catchment based, spatially distributed hydrological modeling, and stream-flow projections/forecast, and lake/reservoirs’ management. It includes sub-models as

Poli-Snow. A tool for snowpack, and snow melt evaluation in high altitude catchments.

Poli-Ice. A tool able to simulate ice melt, accumulation, and gravity driven flow, in glacierized catchments.

Poli-Power. A tool able to simulate multi-purpose reservoirs’ management.

Poli-Price. A tool able to simulate time/weather dependent evolution of energy/water price in support of optimal operation.

Poli-Downscale. A tool able to downscale locally projections/forecast of climate, in support of hydrological projections/forecast.

Poli-DRusle. A tool able to implement (dynamic) RUSLE equation for distributed erosion potential assessment.

Poli-Aval. A 1-2D simulator for spatially distributed avalanche dynamics, including along-track snow entrainment, soil erosion, wood entrainment.

Poli-Glide. A 1-D simulator of snow gliding.

Poli-Crop. A tool usable for catchment scale. spatially distributed modeling of crop (wheat, maize, rice, etc..) growth, and yield simulation.

Poli-Pasture. A tool usable for catchment scale, spatially distributed modeling of pasture grass growth, and yield simulation.

Poli-Wat.Temp. A tool usable at catchment scale, spatially distributed modeling of water temperature in regulated, and natural rivers.

Poli-HE. An energy and hydro balance model, usable for assessment of thermal and hydrologic conditions ad the urban scale

The POLI-HYDRO model, and sub-models thereby run in MATLAB environment, are intended for use of Polimi, and Climate-Lab personnel, and can only be shared upon proper agreement, in the form of routines in a MATLAB environment.

The POLI-HYDRO model, and sub-models thereby are referenced and adopted in a number of studies, reported in several peer reviewed papers, e.g.

1) Bombelli, G., Soncini, A., Bianchi, A., Bocchiola, D. Potentially modified hydropower production under climate change in the Italian Alps, Hydrol. Proc., 33(17), 2355-2372, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.13473.

2) Bombelli, G.M., Soncini, A., Bianchi, A., Bocchiola, D., Influence of climate change scenarios on energy price in the 21st century: a case study in Italy. Climate, 7(10), 121, 2019. doi:10.3390/cli7100121.

3) Duratorre, T., Bombelli, G.M., Menduni, G., Bocchiola, D. Hydropower Potential in the Alps under Climate Change Scenarios. The Chavonne Plant, Val D'Aosta. Water, 12, 2011, 2020.

4) Groppelli, B., Bocchiola, D., Rosso, R., Spatial downscaling of precipitation from GCMs for climate change projections using random cascades: A case study in Italy, Water Resour. Res., 47, W03519, doi:10.1029/2010WR009437, 2011

5) Maruffi,L., Stucchi, L., Casale, F., Bocchiola, D., Soil erosion and sediment transport under climate change for Mera River, in Italian Alps of Valchiavenna, Science of The Total Environment, 806(2), 150651.

6) Bombelli,G.M., Confortola, G., Maggioni, M., Freppaz, M., Bocchiola, D., Modeling of Snow Gliding: A Case Study in the NW Italian Alps, Climate 9(12):171, 2021.

7) Confortola, G., Maggioni, M., Freppaz, M., Bocchiola, D., Modelling soil removal from snow avalanches: A case study in the North-Western Italian Alps, Cold Regions Science and Technology, 70, 43-52, 2012.

Examples of applications of Poli-Suite models

Modelling the effects of potential climate change on the dynamics of multi-species mountain pastures: A case study in Gran Paradiso National Park, ItalyPasture dynamics of Alpine areas are linked to the complex cryospheric hydrology of Alpine catchment and to the interspecies competition, which are in…

Mapping snow avalanches hazard in poorly monitored areas. The case of Rigopiano avalanche, Apennines of ItalyAbstract. Hazard mapping is carried out in Italy according to the AINEVA guidelines, which require (i) data driven avalanche dynamic modelling to assess end mark and pressure, and (ii) assessment of maximum yearly three-day snow depth increase h72 for 30 to 300 years return period. When no historical avalanche data are present, model tuning and data based assessment of avalanche return periods are hardly feasible. Also when (very) short series of h72 are available, station based quantile estimation for such high return periods is very uncertain, and regionally based approaches can be used. We apply an index value approach for the case study avalanche of Rigopiano, where a 105 m3 snow mass hit the Rigopiano Hotel killing 29 persons on January 18th 2017. This area is poorly monitored avalanche wise, and displays short series (max 14 years) of snow depth measurements, no historical avalanche maps are available on the avalanche track, and no hazard maps have been developed hitherto. First, we tune the recently developed Poly-Aval dynamic avalanche model (1D/q2D) against the 18th January event data (release zone, release depth, end mark) from different sources. We then use snow data from 7 snow stations in Abruzzo (75 equivalent years of data) to tune a regionally valid distribution of h72. We then calculate the 30-years, 100-years, and 300-years runout zone and flow pressures, including confidence limits. We demonstrate that (i) properly tuned 1D/quasi2D models can be used for avalanche modeling even within poorly monitored area as here, and (ii) the use of regional analysis allows hazard mapping for large return periods, reducing greatly the uncertainty against canonical, single site analysis. Our approach is usable in poorly monitored regions like Abruzzo here, and we suggest that (i) avalanche hazard mapping needs to be pursued with regional approaches for h72, and (ii) confidence limits need to be provided for the proposed zoning.

Hydropower from the Alpine Cryosphere in the Era of Climate Change: The Case of the Sabbione Storage Plant in ItalyGreenhouse gas reduction policies will have to rely as much as possible upon renewable, clean energy sources. Hydropower is a very good candidate, since it is the only renewable energy source whose production can be adapted to demand, and still has a large exploitation margin, especially in developing countries. However, in Europe the contribution of hydropower from the cold water in the mountain areas is at stake under rapid cryospheric down wasting under global warming. Italian Alps are no exception, with a large share of hydropower depending upon cryospheric water. We study here climate change impact on the iconic Sabbione (Hosandorn) glacier, in the Piemonte region of Italy, and the homonymous reservoir, which collects water from ice melt. Sabbione storage plant has operated since 1953 and it was, until recently, the highest altitude dam of Europe at 2460 m asl, and the former second largest dam of the Alps with 44 Mm3. We use two models, namely Poly-Hydro and Poly-Power, to assess (i) present hydrological budget and components (i.e., ice/snow melt, rainfall), and (ii) hydropower production under optimal reservoirs’ management, respectively. We then project forward hydrological cycle including Sabbione glacier’s fate, under properly downscaled climate change scenarios (three General Circulation Models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, nine scenarios overall) from IPCC until 2100, and we assess future potential for hydropower production under the reservoir’s re-operation. Mean annual discharge during 2000–2017 is estimated at 0.90 m3 s−1, with ice melt contribution of ca. 11.5%, and ice cover as measured by remote sensing changing from 4.23 km2 in 2000 to 2.94 km2 in 2017 (−30%). Mean hydropower production during 2005–2017 is estimated as 46.6 GWh. At the end of the century ice covered area would be largely depleted (0–0.37 km2), and ice melt contribution would drop largely over the century (0%–10%, 5% on average at half century, and null in practice at the end of century). Therefore, decreased ice cover, and uncertain patterns of changing precipitation, would combine to modify the future stream fluxes (−22% to −3%, −10% on average at half century, and −28% to 1%, average −13%, at the end of century). Power production, driven by seasonal demand and water availability, would change (decrease) in the future (−27% to −8%, −15% on average at half century, and −32% to −5%, −16% at the end of century). Our results demonstrate potential for decrease of cold water in this area, paradigmatic of the present state of hydropower in the Alps, and subsequent considerable hydropower losses under climate change, and claim for adaptation measures therein.

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