Apple Trees
The apple tree has become one of the best known fruit trees due to its adaptation to the climate mainly, and other characteristics.
It is resistant to cold and tolerates a wide range of temperatures. Between hot and cold the apple tree prefers cold, since he tolerates it very well, especially in the winter season. Late frosts in early spring can only be a problem as flower damage can occur. The cold-hour requirements are abundant and maybe, depending on the variety, this number of hours is not reached in some areas.
After talking with farmers in the area, we decided that the variables we were going to study were:
- Rains
- Temperatures in Winter.
- Late frosts (early spring).
In this case, apple tree production has been quite homogeneous in these 20 years. There was a decrease in 2013, but afer that year it stabilized. The average is about 21,400 kg / ha. In 2013 there was a significant decline and the cause was a hailstorm in May that spoiled the harvest. Factors like these are impossible to collect by observing only the amount of rain.
Production and Climate Factors
The regression line we get is
and its correlation coefficient is r=0.114. It is an irrigated crop, so it is normal that the relation between the production and rainfalls is practically nil.
The regression line is
and the correlation coefficient r=0,004.
The relation between the two variables practically does not exists, so it does not make sense to make a prediction for 2019.
In this case the correlation between the variables is negative, confirming what farmers told us: the lower the temperatures in winter, the better is the production.
The regression line is
and the correlation coefficient is r=0.433.
Prediction for 2019
Production= -1245’87·2’09 +24855’25=22251’44 kg/ha (over the average).