Almond Trees
The optimum temperature range for photosynthetic activity is between 25-30ºC, with a strong reduction due to temperatures below 15ºC or above 35ºC. Freshly sprout fruits are the most sensitive to frost, followed by swollen flowers and buds. The almond tree is one of the fruit trees that has an earlier flowering, so the frosts in the second half of March and the first week of April are disastrous.
Rainfall is one of the main productive limitations. The almond tree is a crop well adapted to rainfed conditions, although its production is significantly increased with irrigation.
Relative humidity is a factor of great importance, since very high or excessively low relative humidity (RH) values induce stomatal closure in the plant, negatively affecting vegetative and reproductive activity.
The wind enhances the negative effect of extreme temperatures, the minimum in winter and the maximum in summer. Tree formation is very difficult in areas with constant winds.
We will focus on the first three factors mentioned, to check if they affect the production of the almond tree.
In this case we can see how the production has not been homogeneous at all, the average is about 256 kg/ ha, but years like 2008 and 2013 the decrease in production was remarkable. The year in which it increased considerably was 2018. Let's try to determine if any of the meteorological factors can explain this behavior, but considering the results of the linear correlation coefficients between the variables, we can say that it is not good.
Production and Climate Factors
The regression line is
and the Correlation Coefficient is r=0.42.
We cannot affirm that it is a good relation, but the fact is that the rain is beneficial and the years in which it has rained more, the production has been good.
Prediction for 2019
Production =0.338x339.2 + 89.789 = 204.44 kg / ha (below the average).
In this case, it seems that years with frosts in spring and decreases in production coincide, although no linear relationship can be established as we can see with the scatter diagram.
The regression line is
and the Correlation Coefficient r=-0.1.
Prediction for 2019
Production= -7.5545 x 0 + 264.919 = 264.919 kg / ha (above the average).
The regression line is
and the Correlation Coefficient r=0.355.
According with the results, there does not seem to be a linear relationship between the two variables, even so let's try to make a prediction.
Prediction for 2019
Production =12.93 x 57.58 - 513.76 = 230.75 kg / ha (below average).
Summarizing,
