Research

Published Articles

1.   Macroeconomic Policy, Product Market Competition, and Growth: The Intangible Investment Channel   (with JaeBin Ahn, Romain Duval)  (forthcoming: International Journal of Central Banking)  (Working Paper)

2.   Electoral Cycles in Tax Reforms   (with Antonio David)  (forthcoming: Empirical Economics)  (Slides)   (Brookings Summary)   (Working paper)

3.   Does Informality Hinder Financial Development Convergence?  (with Emekcan Yucel)  Economic Systems, 48(2), 101174, 2024.  (Slides)  (Working paper) 

4.   Gendered Laws and Labor Force Participation   Applied Economics Letters, 30(19), 2681-2687, 2023.  (Working paper)

5.   Population Aging and Convergence of Household Credit   The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 23(1), 497-520, 2023.  (Working paper) 

6.   Financial Structure Convergence   International Finance, 25(1), 65-83, 2022.   (Working paper)

7.   Financial Crises and Institutional Quality   International Journal of Finance and Economics, 27(1), 1510-1525, 2022.    

8.   The Effects of Elections on Macroprudential Policy  (with Emekcan Yucel)   Journal of Comparative Economics, 50(2), 507-533, 2022.   (Working Paper circulated as Macroprudential Policy and Elections: What Matters? )  (Slides)

9.   Political Booms and Currency Crises   Journal of Macroeconomics, 70, 103373, 2021.   (Working paper)

10.   Financial Crises and Innovation  (with Bryan Hardy)   European Economic Review, 138, 103856, 2021.   (Working paper)

11.   Reserves and Currency Crises: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime   Applied Economics Letters, 28(19), 1677-1681, 2021.

12.   The Myth of Economic Recovery: The Case of Crises in Neighboring Countries,  Economics Letters,  164,  65-69, 2018.

13.   Systemic Risk and Heterogeneous Leverage in Banking Networks  (with Burak Saltoglu, Umut Kuzubas),  Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,  462, 358-375, 2016. 

Working Papers

1.   Frayed Societies: Decoding the Interplay between Conflicts and Gender Inequality   (coming soon)  (with Paola Ganum)

2.   Unraveling the Wage-Output Disconnect: The Role of Labor Market Power  (with Melih Firat)  IMF Working Paper, Jul 2024   (Slides) 

3.   Conflicts and Growth: The R&D Channel  (submitted)  IMF Working Paper, May 2024   (Slides)

4.   Innovation Convergence   (with Bryan Hardy)  (submitted)  BIS Working Paper, Jul 2023

5.   Unpleasant Surprises? Elections and Tax News Shocks   (with Antonio David)  (R&R)  IMF Working Paper, Jun 2023   (Slides)

6.   Firm Leverage and Boom-Bust Cycles  (submitted)  IMF Working Paper, Jun 2023   (Slides) (ASSA 2024 poster)

7.   Legal Gender Equality as a Catalyst for Convergence  (submitted)  IMF Working Paper, Jul 2022   (Slides)

8.   Climate-Related Stress Testing: Transition Risk in Colombia   (with Manuel Perez-Archila)  IMF Working Paper, Nov 2021

9.   Electoral Cycles in Inequality   (with Emekcan Yucel)  (R&R)  Bogazici University Working Paper, Mar 2021  (Slides)

10.   Effects of Emerging Market Asset Purchase Program Announcements on Financial Markets During the COVID-19 Pandemic    (with Dimitris Drakopoulos, Rohit Goel, Evan Papageorgiou)  IMF Working Paper, Dec 2020   (Slides)

11.   Gender Inequality and Economic Growth: Industry Level Evidence   (with Ata Can Bertay, Ljubica Dordevic)  (R&R)  IMF Working Paper, Jul 2020

Book Chapters and Short Pieces

1.   A Causal Story: Gender Equality and Economic Growth,  in the IMF Book "Gender Equality and Economic Development in Sub-Sharan Africa",  Apr 2024  (with Ata Can Bertay, Ljubica Dordevic) 

2.   Does Innovation Converge?,   SUERF The European Money and Finance Forum Policy Brief, Oct 2023 (with Bryan Hardy) 

3.   Emerging Markets During Covid-19: Unconventional Policies and Financial Markets,  in the CEPR e-Book "Monetary Policy and Central Banking in the Covid Era", Jun 2021  (with  Dimitris Drakopoulos, Rohit Goel, Evan Papageorgiou, Dmitri Petrov, Patrick Schneider)  

4.   Managing volatile capital flows in emerging and frontier markets,  VoxEU Column, Aug 2020  (with  Reinout De Bock, Dimitris Drakopoulos, Rohit Goel, Lucyna Gornicka, Evan Papageorgiou, Patrick Schneider)  

Contribution to External Policy Reports and Papers

1.   IMF Mozambique Selected Issues Papers 2024, Chapter: State-Owned Enterprises in Mozambique: Current Situation and Policy Options

2.   IMF Mozambique Staff Report: Article IV and Fourth Review Under the ECF Arrangement 2024, including the Annex on Strategy for Poverty Reduction and Growth and Social Protection 

3.   IMF WAEMU Selected Issues Papers 2024, Chapters:  (1) Climate Change in the WAEMU: Trends, Macro-criticality and Options Going Forward, (2) Gender Inequality in the WAEMU: Current Situation and Opportunities 

4.   IMF Mozambique Staff Report: Third Review Under the ECF Arrangement  2023 

5.   IMF Kingdom of Eswatini Article IV Staff Report 2023, including Annexes on (1) The Macroeconomic Relevance of Gender Inequality in Eswatini, and (2) External Sector Assessment 

6.   IMF WAEMU Article IV Staff Report 2022, including the Annex on Financial Inclusion in the WAEMU  

7.   IMF WAEMU Selected Issues Papers 2022, Chapter: Revamping the WAEMU Fiscal Framework

8.   IMF Niger Selected Issues Papers 2022 , Chapter: Financial Inclusion in Niger: Challenges and Opportunities

9.   IMF Niger Staff Report 2022: First Review Under the ECF Arrangement

10.   IMF WAEMU Article IV Staff Report 2021, including Annexes on (1) Impact of the Pandemic on Financial Inclusion, and (2) Capacity Development

11.   IMF WAEMU Selected Issues Papers 2021, Chapter: Damage Control: Quantifying the Medium Term Scarring Effects of Covid-19 in the WAEMU    

12.   IMF Colombia Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) 2021, Climate Transition Risk Stress Testing 

13.   IMF Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) April 2021: Preempting a Legacy of Vulnerabilities, Chapter: Global Financial Stability Overview: An Asynchronous and Divergent Recovery May Put Financial Stability at Risk

14.   IMF Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) October 2020: Bridge to Recovery, Chapter: Emerging and Frontier Markets: A Greater Set of Policy Options to Restore Stability

15.   IMF Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) June 2020 Update

16.   IMF Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) April 2020: Markets in the Time of COVID-19, Chapters: (1) Global Financial Stability Overview: Markets in the Time of COVID-19,  (2) Risky Credit Markets: Interconnecting the Dots,  (3) Emerging and Frontier Markets: Managing Volatile Portfolio Flows

17.   IMF Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Outlook (REO) October 2018: Asia at the Forefront: Growth Challenges for the Next Decade and Beyond. Chapter: Productivity Growth in Asia: Boosting Firm Dynamism and Weeding out the Zombies

18.   World Bank Global Financial Development Report (GFDR) 2017/2018: Bankers without Border