Lucyna Górnicka, PhD
Lucyna Górnicka, PhD
I am an Economist at the International Monetary Fund.
Welcome to my website!
Contact: lgornicka@gmail.com
Research interests: macrofinance, financial regulation, monetary policy
RePEc profile: here
Embedded Files
Work in Progress
Work in Progress
Monetary policy pass-through to consumer prices: Evidence from granular price data, ECB Working Paper 3003, joint with A. Allayoti, S. Holton, C. Martinez Hernandez
We document that about 33% of the core inflation basket in the euro area is sensitive to monetary policy shocks. We assess potential theoretical mechanisms driving the sensitivity. Our results suggest that items of a discretionary nature, as reflected in a higher share in the consumption baskets of richer households, and those with larger role of credit in financing their purchase, tend to be more sensitive. Non-sensitive items are more frequently subject to administered prices and include non-discretionary items such as rents and medical services. Energy intensity does not seem to drive our results and the sensitive items are not dominated by durable goods, but are relatively evenly split between goods and services. Estimations over different samples show that the impact of monetary policy shocks on sensitive core inflation has become larger recently.
presentations in 2024: 3rd ESCB CHAMP Workshop of Workstream 2: Transmission through the real economy (Frankfurt, Germany); BSE Summer Forum: Macroeconometrics and Policy Evaluation (Barcelona, Spain); Annual Conference of the International Association of Applied Econometrics (Thessaloniki, Greece); GRAPE Summer workshop on Macro and Finance 2024 (Warsaw, Poland); CEBRA 2024: State-dependence in Monetary Policy Transmission (Frankfurt, Germany); Bank of Finland and CEPR Joint Conference on Back to Basics and Beyond: New Insights for Monetary Policy Normalisation (Helsinki, Finland), CEPR Annual Monetary Economics and Fluctuations Symposium 2024 (Gerzensee, Switzerland), ECB-Cleveland Fed’s Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2024 (Cleveland, U.S.); CREI seminar (Barcelona, Spain); IMF seminar (Washington, D.C., U.S.)
Video with a 20-min presentation by Anastasia
2024 Jackson Hole speech by Phillip Lane featuring our research
Firm productivity, bank lending and government guarantees during COVID-19 , joint with D. Anreeva, V. Botelho, A. Ferrante and F. Lenoci (a draft coming up)
We study the impact of government guarantees on bank lending decisions during the COVID-19 guarantees. Using merged ECB bank supervisory database, Anacredit database on firm-bank loans, and Orbis database, we document that low-productivity firms were more likely to benefit from government-guaranteed credit during the pandemic, compared to their more productive peers. Banks with higher levels of non-performing loans and banks with lower capital ratios were more likely to lend to low-productivity firms.
ECB's November 2024 Financial Stability Review featuring our analysis
Optimal Macroprudential Policy and Asset Price Bubbles, joint with N. Biljanovska, J. Gali and A. Vardoulakis (a draft coming up)
Published Papers
Published Papers
Leakages from macroprudential regulations: The case of household-specific tools and corporate credit, Economic Modelling (forthcoming), joint with A. Bhargava and P. Xie
Central Banking blog (28 June 2021): here
Capital Flows at Risk: Taming Ebbs and Flows, Journal of International Economics, vol 134, January 2022, pages 1035-55, joint with G. Gelos, R. Koepke, R. Sahay and S. Sgherri
VOXEU blog (4 February 2020): here
Learning About Fiscal Multipliers During the European Sovereign Debt Crisis: Evidence From a Quasi-Natural Experiment, Economic Policy, vol. 35 (101), pages 5-40, January 2020, joint with Ch. Kamps, G. Koester and N. Leiner-Killinger.
VOXEU blog (23 January 2020): here
Banks and Shadow Banks: Competitors or Complements?, Journal of Financial Intermediation, vol. 27, pages 118-131, July 2016.
Too International to Fail? Supranational Bank Resolution and Market Discipline, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 65, pages 41–58, April 2016, joint with M.A. Zoican.
Book Chapters
Book Chapters
Brandão-Marques, L., L. Górnicka, and G. Kamber (2023), "Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Advanced and Emerging Economies: Same Shocks, Different Outcomes" in: Gelos, G. Sahay, R. (eds.) "Shocks and Capital Flows Policy Responses in a Volatile World", Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund
Gornicka, L., S. Ogawa, TT. Xu (2023), “Addressing Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities” in: Schipke, A., J. Turunen, N. Choueiri, A-M. Gulde (eds.) "India’s Financial System: Building the Foundation for Strong and Sustainable Growth", Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund
Working Papers
Working Papers
Central Bank Digital Currency and Bank Disintermediation in a Portfolio Choice Model, IMF Working Paper 23/236, joint with H. Chang, F. Grinberg, M. Miccoli and B. Tan
Biases in survey inflation expectations: Evidence from the Euro Area, ECFIN Discussion Paper 170/2022, joint with J. Chen and V. Zdarek
Corporate Sector Resilience in India in the Wake of the COVID-19 Shock, IMF Working Paper 21/278, November 2021, joint with S. Ogawa and TT. Xu
Stress-testing and Calibration of Macroprudential Policy Tools, joint with L. Valderrama, IMF Working Paper 20/165
Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time?, IMF Working Paper 20/24, January 2020, joint with J. Chen
Brexit Referendum and Business Investment in the UK, IMF Working Paper 18/247, November 2018
Measuring Concentration Risk - A Partial Portfolio Approach, IMF Working Paper 16/158, August 2016, joint with P. Grippa
Policy Work
Policy Work
Low firm productivity: the role of finance and implications for financial stability, Special Feature in the November 2024 Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank
November 2024 Financial Stability Review: Chapter 1, European Central Bank
May 2024 Financial Stability Review: Chapter 1, European Central Bank
A forward-looking tracker of negotiated wages in the euro area , ECB Occassional Paper No 338, January 2024.
ECB press release with a link to the website where you can download wage tracker series developed by our team
A closer look at consumers' inflation expectations - evidence from ECB's Consumer Expectations Survey, ECB Economic Bulletin Issue 7/2022
Does the tail wag the dog? A closer look at recent movements in the distributions of inflation expectation, ECB Economic Bulletin Issue 6/2022
Colombia: Financial Sector Stability Assessment, IMF Country Report No. 22/98
Emerging and Frontier Markets: Managing Volatile Portfolio Flows, Global Financial Stability Report, April 2020, Chapter 3
VoxEU blog (19 August 2020) here
Austria: Financial Sector Stability Assessment, IMF Country Report No. 20/35.
Implications of Nordea's Redomicile to Finland, in: Finland Selected Issues Paper 2018, IMF Country Report No. 19/7, joint with A. Scott
House Prices and Labor Mobility in Norway: A Regional Perspective, in: Norway Selected Issues Paper 2018, IMF Country Report No. 18/280, joint with S. Zhang
Regional Disparities in Labor Productivity in the United Kingdom, in:United Kingdom Selected Issues Paper 2017, IMF Country Report No. 18/43, joint with N. Arregui
Finland's Labor Market, in: Finland Selected Issues Paper 2017, IMF Country Report No. 17/371, joint with Ch. Henn
Short Bio
Short Bio
January 20242024-December 2024: Senior Financial Sector Expert, Systemic Risk and Financial Institutions Divisions, Macroprudential Policy & Financial Stability Department, European Central
January 2022-December 2023: Senior Economist, Prices and Costs Division, Economics Department, European Central Bank
September 2018-January 2022: Monetary and Macroprudential Policies Division, Monetary and Capital Departments, IMF
March 2017-August 2018: European Department, IMF (UK, Norway and Finland desks)
September 2015-February 2017: Financial Regulations Division, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF
2012-June 2015: PhD at University of Amsterdam, Netherlands
2010-2012: MPhil in Economics at Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands
2014 July-September: Trainee at the European Central Bank (Fiscal Policies Division), Frankfurt, Germany
2014 June: Research visit at University of Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
2005-2010: Master in Economics at Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland
External Presentations
External Presentations
CREI Brown Bag Seminar, Barcelona, 5 November 2024
Bank of Finland and CEPR Joint Conference on Back to Basics and Beyond: New Insights for Monetary Policy Normalisation, Helsinki, 12-13 September 2024
Barcelona School of Economics Summer Forum 2024, Workshop on Macroeconometrics and Policy Evaluation, 6-7 June 2024
7th Annual Workshop of the ESCB Research Cluster on on Financial Stability, Macroprudential Regulation and Microprudential Supervision, Saariselka, 23-25 Noember 2023
JVI/BdF Course on Financial Stability Policy of Central Banks, Joint Vienna Institute, Vienna, 26 May 2023
EEA-ESEM Annual Congress, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy, 22nd August 2022
10th Summer Workshop on Macroeconomics and Finance, Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland, 4 July 2022
FINMA Seminar on Macroprudential Supervision, Austrian Central Bank, 23 March 2022 (virtual)
CEMLA Workshop on Growth-at-Risk applications, hybrid meeting, 3 March 2022, Mexico City, Mexico (virtual)
European Central Bank DGMF External Seminar, 20 December 2021 (virtual)
CEBRA 2021 Annual Meeting 7-9 July 2021 (virtual)
Bank of Lithuania Economics seminar, 23 April 2021 (virtual)
European Central Bank-Review of Financial Studies Macro-Finance Conference, 22-23 March 2021 (virtual)
European Commission ECFIN Economics seminar, 25 November 2020 (virtual)
Central Bank of Ireland Economics seminar, 19 November 2020 (virtual)
University of Richmond, Economics Department seminar, 22 October 2019, Richmond, USA
European Central Bank, external seminar, 18 September 2019, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
EEA-ESEM Annual Meeting, 26-30 August 2019, Machester, the UK
IMF, IMF Economic Review and Central Bank of Chile Conference "Current Policy Challenges Facing Emerging Markets", 24-25 July 2019, Santiago, Chile
The Society for Computational Economics 25th International Conference, 28-30 June 2019, Ottawa, Canada
University of Toronto, Rotman School of Management Brown Bag seminar, 5 December 2018, Toronto, Canada
European Systemic Risk Board, Working Group on Shadow Banking, 6 October 2016, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
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