Research

Job Market Paper

Demand Estimation for Weight-Loss Pharmacotherapy: Structural Evidence on Treatment Substitution, Preference Heterogeneity, and Welfare Implications of Cost-Sharing Design. 

Link to full paper.

Abstract

As weight-management (WM) therapies grow, so does the need for the empirical characterization of this market. This paper models patients’ demand for WM pharmacotherapy, in which baseline results indicate limited responsiveness to prices. The preferred model shows that patients’ demand for WM pharmacotherapy is relatively elastic. Own-price elasticity magnitudes are the largest for Adipex-P at -7.23, Lomaira at -6.19, and Xenical at -5.17. The lowest elasticity magnitudes are found for liraglutide at -0.64, naltrexone/bupropion at -1.26, and Wegovy at -1.61, with the remaining medications ranging from -2.15 to -4.74. Cross-price elasticities and diversion ratios indicate relatively strong within-class substitution among WM-indicated GLP-1s and among phentermine-based appetite suppressants, where lower prices for generic phentermine divert demand away from brand names. With price perturbations, all medications, including GLP-1s, gain most market share from the outside option. Moreover, income and the presence of diabetes are statistically significant determinants of preference for GLP-1 medications, indicating higher valuation among these patient segments. Income is also found to moderate price disutility. There is limited evidence for unobserved heterogeneity in price sensitivity. Additionally, willingness-to-pay (WTP) for GLP-1s increases with income, with the steepest marginal WTP at the 90th percentile. Counterfactual simulations show that a budget-neutral reference-pricing design is not welfare-enhancing relative to the status quo, but frameworks in which patient-borne costs are disciplined could improve outcomes.

Works in Progress

The Effects of Gentrification on Student Achievements in Philadelphia

Link to full paper.

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of gentrification on student performance in Philadelphia. I exploit the 2014 Actual Value Initiative (AVI), a property tax reform that triggered neighborhood change as an exogenous shock, in a difference-in-differences design, utilizing school-level test scores data, linked to census tracts. Estimates show that “very-weakly-gentrifying” areas experience gains in advanced and proficient scores, whereas more intense gentrification areas experience declining performance. Effects are also shown to vary by grade, where third- and fourth-graders are negatively affected, but fifth-graders benefit. These findings highlight the unintended consequences of gentrification and provide the motivation for sustainable neighborhood investments particularly in the context of education.

Assessing the Impact of Medicare on Cancer Detection

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of Medicare eligibility on cancer screening and detection. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data from 2000 to 2017, and leveraging a regression discontinuity design around the Medicare eligibility age of 65, this study estimates causal effects on cancer diagnoses and early detection. Results reveal heterogeneous effects across cancer sites and demographics. Medicare eligibility increased breast and rectal cancer detection for White and Native individuals. Additionally, the policy improved early detection for breast and colorectal cancers. These findings underscore the role of insurance coverage in improving public health outcomes, offering empirical support for the effectiveness of such policies.