Survey

Methodology of the survey

A total of 394 surveys were carried out among the inhabitants of Alto Minho, including people from different municipalities, ages, gender, etc., representing 0.16% of the population. The surveys were answered personally, one by one, between the months of June and September 2019.

Survey example

This is one example of the survey conducted.

You can find the translation below.

In the following graph we show where it was carried out and how many people responded in each municipality.

Inquerito-EntregableIII V7[4305].docx

Quantitative Analysis of the Survey

Description of the data used in the study

The objective of this section is to model the preferences and estimate the willingness to pay of the people surveyed towards certain policies that aim to improve the response capacity in case of fire, as well as establish improvements in preventive actions.

To analyze the preferences of the inhabitants in the Intermunicipal Community of Alto Minho, the methodology known as choice experiments is used. Choice experiments consist of presenting the respondent with a series of sets of options, described by a set of characteristics or attributes, one of which is monetary, but with different levels, in order for them to choose the option they prefer. The objective is to statistically identify the underlying utility or preference functions for each of the attributes presented. To achieve greater efficiency in the sample, each individual makes several choices.

The basic assumption of the theory of random utility is that individuals act rationally, selecting the alternative that produces the greatest utility. Consequently, the probability of selecting a certain alternative will be higher if the utility provided by that alternative is the highest among the different options.

One of the advantages offered by choice experiments is that they are very similar to the habitual behavior of individuals, since they consist of choosing an alternative from a set of available alternatives. Therefore, in addition to being easy to answer, they also encourage proper disclosure of preferences. In addition, they allow a good to be characterized in terms of its characteristics and their levels, so that we can estimate the value of the good or the proposed policy, but also the relative importance of each of its components. Finally, the probability of bias is also eliminated, since it is very difficult for the respondent to intuit how his answer may influence the final decision on the policy to be implemented.

In practice, respondents were offered the option of participating in prevention and rapid action policies in the event of fires. Specifically, it was about increasing the number of firefighters and professional volunteers, increasing the number of sapadores florestais for which an annual economic cost per family member had to be assumed. Respondents had the option of choosing between three types of policy (policy A, policy B, or policy C), which carry different levels for the attributes used. In addition, the participants also had the option of not participating in any of the contracts and staying with the current situation

The selected attributes were the following: the number of fire-fighters and professional volunteers, the number of sapadores florestais and the annual economic cost per family member. All attributes consisted of three levels. The following table shows the attributes with their respective levels:

Uma vez definidos os atributos e os seus níveis, estes são combinados a fim de os apresentar aos inquiridos. O desenho do conjunto de eleição foi realizado através de um desenho factorial fraccional com o programa JMP da SAS. Isto proporcionou 4 conjuntos de escolhas por indivíduo. A eficiência final do desenho seleccionado é de 90,22%.

Estimation of a conditional logit model

A conditional logit model has been estimated that can represent the probability that the farmer i select program option j, since the conditional logit model is a conditional choice on the attributes of the choice.

For the estimation of the model, the protest responses have been eliminated, that is, the responses of those people who systematically chose the option of doing nothing, specifically, 26% of the sample. The results obtained show how all the coefficients are statistically significant. Thus, it is obtained that increases in the number of professional and volunteer firefighters produce increases in the level of utility associated with this policy, as well as increases in the number of forest sapadores. On the contrary, the economic cost would have a negative effect on the level of associated profit.

Through the results obtained, the WTP of the respondents can be estimated by the two proposed policies: a rapid action policy and a prevention policy.

As can be seen, the WTP for a preventive action is higher than the WTP for a rapid and professionalized action.

Specifically, the surveyed citizens show that they would be willing to pay a total of 0.97€ to increase the teams of sapador florestais by 1%. The WTP for rapid action amounts to 0.81€ for an increase of 1% in the number of professional firefighters and the number of volunteers.

Based on the levels of increases proposed in each policy, specifically, increases of 20%, 50% and 70%, the WTP would be around 19€ for an increase of 20% in the number of sapadores florestais, around 47. 50€ for an increase of 50% reaching 66.50€ for an increase of 70%. In the case of rapid action, the results show that the citizens of Alto Minho would be willing to pay around 16.20€ to increase the number of firefighters and volunteers by 20%, around 40.50€ for an increase of 50% and up to 56.70€ if it were an increase of 70%.

Results

Recent Fires

Fires that have occurred in your area of residence in the past

Remember any fire near where you live occurred in recent years?

Where?

Selection of the places chosen by the interviewees on 4 or more occasions

When?

Selection of the years chosen by the respondents from the year 2000 to the present

Have forest fires of 2017 affected you in your area?

Fires of 2017

Did you feel affected?

In what way?

How the inhabitants of Alto-Minho feel about

I live in an area with a high probability of fire risk compared to the rest of Portugal
If a fire occurs (in the next 5 years) the consequences in my community will be severe
Local resources will be able to suppress a nearby forest fire before it gets out of control
It is the responsibility of private property owners to take precautionary measures against the risk of fire.
It is the responsibility of the community to take preventive action against the risk of fire in a public space.

It is the responsibility of the community to take preventive action against the risk of fire, whether on a private or public property because the environment is critical to our survival.
A forest fire is unlikely to occur in the next 5 years in my home area


My house is not in danger of fire



Increasing

Do you think the number of fires has increased in recent years in Portugal?

Main causes of fire

What do you think are the main causes of fires?

Losses

‣ Economic

What are the main economic losses caused by forest fires?

‣ Environmental

And what are the main environmental losses?

Reasons of the fires

Do you find that a large percentage of fires are planned?

Who do you think is the reason for this?


Survey translation

Good morning, my name is Ana and I work with a team of professionals who collaborate with the Alto Minho Inter-Municipal Community in the assessment of the economic impact caused by forest fires in this area. We would like to know your latest opinion on some specific problems. Responses will be kept anonymous.

1. Do you specifically remember one or more specific fires that occurred in your area of ​​residence in the past?

” Yes

” No

” Do not know

If so, where?

________________________________________________________________________________________________

When?

________________________________________________________________________________________________

2. Now let's talk about the fires of the year 2017:

a) In your opinion, what was the biggest loss suffered in this area?

______________________________________________________

b) Did you feel affected?

” Yes

” No

In what way?

_____________________________________________________________________________

d) Could you quantify your loss economically (in physical or economic terms)?

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Next, we would like to know your opinion about the different policies that aim to improve the response capacity in case of fire, as well as to improve preventive actions. Specifically, they aim to achieve two goals by incorporating more staff and the means necessary to carry out their tasks. However, these measures are expensive and need to be paid for through additional income taxes. • Number of existing professional firefighters and volunteers: there are currently 9133 professional firefighters and 18,524 volunteers in Portugal. The proposed policies propose different increases for this team in different percentages (from 20 to 70%). • number of forest sappers: Currently, the Portuguese administration has 500 teams of sappers.These measures are expensive and need to be paid through taxes. Therefore, depending on the policy, the cost will vary.

• annual economic cost per household:this cost will be borne by portuguese families with an annual payment that can vary between: € 10, € 30 and € 50. Below are the different policy options. You choose the policy option you’d like if implemented. Remember that you have the option of choosing to remain in the current situation, without increasing operating costs or the means to fight fires, or assume any financial cost.

3.Given these options, what policy would you choose?

4. And if these were the options, which policy would you choose?

5. In this case, what policy would you choose?

6. Finally, choose one last time:

7. Indicate your level of agreement with the following statements. Please select the most convenient option:



8. Do you consider that the number of fires has increased in recent years in Portugal?

” Yes

” No

” Do not know

9. What months of the year do you think forest fires are most likely to occur?

________________________________________________

10.In your opinion, what are the main economic losses caused by forest fires?

” Damage to farms, plantations, houses and other private and public property.

” The environmental effects of fires and recover the areas affected by them.

” Losses in the forestry business (eg cellulose, wood, etc…)

” Decrease in tourism

11.What is the main environmental loss caused by forest fires?

” Destruction of vegetation cover

” Death of animals

” Loss of fertile soil

” Lost wood

” Increased erosion

” Greenhouse gas emissions, among others

12.What are the main causes of fires? (mark the three most important causes with 1, 2, 3 respectively)

” Deficient or no vegetation cleaning

” Climatic drying conditions (high temperature, low relative humidity, dry)

” Neglect (land abandonment and rural depopulation)

” Accident (poor control of fires)

” Incendiary performances

” Natural (caused by sparks and lightning)

” Not determined

13.Do you think that forest fires in your region are caused by a high percentage?

” Yes

” No

If so, who do you think is the reason?

________________________________________________

14.Do you usually talk about the problem of forest fires?

□ Yes

□ No

a) If yes, with whom?

□ Friends

□ Family

□ Neighbors

□ Community members

b) Indicate how much these people influence their decisions about fire prevention attitudes

From 1 Nothing to 5 Very

15.Do you know anyone who consciously or unconsciously may have caused a forest fire?

” I'm not sure, but I think so

” Yes, I'm sure.

” No

16.If you eventually knew of such a case, would you report it?

” Yes

” No

Because?

_____________________________________________

17.Have you ever been threatened by forest fires?

” Yes

” No

18. Have you ever had to be evacuated from your home due to a forest fire?

” Yes

” No

19. Do you know anyone who has suffered the consequences of forest fires?

” Yes

” No

Specific problems: actions

20.Prevention actions: Which of the following actions do you consider most relevant when it comes to preventing fires?

” Fuel management network (strips without afforestation)

” Prevention awareness program

” Neighborhood surveillance in times of high risk

” Mountain cleaning tasks by neighbors

” Opening of forest paths to facilitate access and surveillance

” Selection of species and forestry methods

” Landscapes with a heterogeneous mosaic

” Reporting human risk behaviors

21.Do you have agricultural or forest land in your household?

” Yes

” No (go to question 25)

22. If so, what size?

________________________________

23.Do you know the location of all your land?

” Yes

” No

24.Which of the following actions do you take directly on your properties to prevent fires?

” Selection of local species and forestry methods

” Fuel management (strips without afforestation around houses)

” Neighborhood surveillance in times of high risk

” Mountain cleaning tasks by neighbors

” None of the above, my properties are abandoned

” Others________________________________________

25.Did you know that in order to burn fires you must ask the authorities for authorization and also that you can only do so during a certain period established by law?

” Yes, I knew of both situations

” I just knew that authorization was needed

” I only knew that there was a deadline for the burning

” No

26.Did you know that all homeowners must have a clean 50 meter area around their homes?

” Yes

” No

27.Did you know that people who carry out unauthorized fires or do not keep their properties clean are subject to very high fines?

” Yes

” No

28.Are you in favor of these fines?

” Yes

” No

Because?_________________________________________

Sociodemographic:

29. Year of birth

__________

30. Usual place of residence (Address)

________________________________________________

31.Postal Code

______________

32. Sex

” Male

” Feminine

33.If you live in an urban area, how often do you frequent rural areas in your spare time?

1 = None 5 = Too much

34.Approximately how far is your home from the forest?

______________ _ ______

35.Do you have a family in rural areas?

” Yes

” No

36. Do you or your family have fire insurance?

” Yes

” No

37. Work situation

” Autonomous

” Full time employee

” Part-time employee

” Student

” Unemployed

” Housework

” Retired

” Unable to work due to illness or disability

” Other_____________________

38. What sector does your profession belong to?

” Manufacturing

” Fishing

” Agriculture / Forestry

” Management

” Tourism

” Trade

” Public services

” Other ________________________________________

39. How many people make up your household (including you)? _______

40.How many people in your household contribute to wages? _______

41. Do you have underage children who live at home?

” Yes

” No

How many? ______

42.Do your children think of dedicating themselves to farming or exploring the land?

” Yes

” No

43.Please indicate your level of education.

” No studies

” Primary school

” 2nd cycle of basic education

” 3rd cycle of basic education

” Secondary education aimed at pursuing higher studies

” Secondary education obtained by double certification or internship

” Post-secondary specialization course

” Graduation

” Master's

” Doctorate

44.Which of these values ​​is your salary among?

” ≤499 €

” € 500-999

” € 1000-1499

” € 1500-1999

” € 2000-2499

” € 2500-2999

” € 3000-4999

” ≥5000 €