Evaluation of forest fires in Alto Minho
Project led by:
Universidade de Santiago de Compostela
Reference:
2018-CP021
Financing entity:
CIM do Alto Minho
Summary
Forest fires are a major problem that threatens the ecosystem services of our forests. In the Alto Minho region, which consists of 10 municipalities in the north of Portugal, forest fires are very intense, being especially relevant the 2017 forest fires, which burned a total of 6,586 hectares.
Forests provide us with a large number of ecosystem services. Therefore, after a forest fire, these services are lost or diminished, hence the need to account for this type of loss. It is important to take into account that some of these ecosystem services do not have an associated market value or price, which does not mean that they do not imply an economic loss. Hence the need to economically value all the goods and services that we obtain from natural resources.
In this study, we intend to analyze in detail what losses these areas have suffered, not only in their burnt area, but also in the ecosystem services that have been affected by this disaster. In more detail, the services that we will analyse here are: provisioning services, cultural services, and regulation and maintenance services.
For the analysis of each of these ecosystem services we will use a different method, as there are more appropriate methodologies to evaluate each of the services studied, recommending InVEST to estimate the economic losses from timber and carbon sequestration. InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Services and Ecosystem Compensation) is a set of models used to map and value the goods and services of nature that sustain and satisfy human life. Using market prices, we have approximated the timber loss per Ha burned to about 3328.57€.
The loss of ecosystem services resulting from the absence of carbon sequestration was estimated using two different methods: First, the total ten-year carbon sequestration output from this burned forest was estimated at 66$/ton (60€/ton), as indicated in the InVEST manual for calculating the loss from the social cost of carbon, and second, a much lower value was used that is much closer to the cost of emission permits, estimated at 26$/ton (23.63€/ton). These two extreme values indicate that carbon capture losses range from 4584.42€/ha/year to 1810.35€/ha/year.
Finally, cultural services were evaluated using the meta-analysis technique: compiling data obtained from a large number of studies to draw general conclusions about them, i.e. to transfer the benefits. To do this, we built a database of 62 studies at an international level, although in the end we worked with 31, as some did not have complete information. Using linear regression, we estimated each of the mean values of the ecosystem services reported in this database. For the specific case of cultural services, these were evaluated at 4042.85€/Ha in the upper range and 1841.93€/Ha in the lower range.
A survey was also carried out among the inhabitants of the region in order to model preferences and estimate the willingness to pay of respondents for certain policies designed to improve fire response capacity, as well as to establish improvements in preventive measures. The willingness to pay for preventive action proved to be higher than the respondents' willingness to pay for rapid and professionalised action, being about 19€ for a 20% increase in the number of foresters and only 16.20€ for a 20% increase in the number of fire fighters and volunteers.