Publications
"Even with infinite computing power insufficient understanding limits its application; With finite computing power we have to understand things that we could in principle compute."
Rudolf Clausius.
Embedded Files
Peer-Review Articles
Casallas, A., Steffens, B., Antezana-Lopez, F.P., Rodriguez-Villamizar, L.A., Belalcazar, L.C., Lopez-Barrera, E.A., Aranda, J.M., Plata, C., Pozzer, A., Submitted, GeoHealth.
Silvestri, L., Biagioli, G., Casallas, A., Saraceni, M., Cimarelli, A., Bongioannini Cerlini, P., Muller, C., Tompkins, A.M., Submitted. Predicting deep convective self-aggregation using water vapor and buoyancy length-scales. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.176804784.44385486/v1
Biagioli G., Mandorli G., Freischem L.J., Casallas A., Tompkins A.M. Submitted Revision 1. Spatial Patterns of Shallow Clouds: Challenging the Concept of Defined Regimes. Geophys. Res. Lett.
Bustos D., Garcia D., Rojas N., Lopez-Barrera E.A., Peña-Rincón C.A., Casallas A. 2026. Ozone Trends and Mortality Risk: The Growing Need for Machine Learning Predictions in Bogotá, Colombia. Earth Syst. Environ. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-026-01052-3
González Y., Malagón N., Benavides K., Belalcázar L.C., Lopez-Barrera E.A., Casallas A. 2026. Spatio-Temporal Trends of Urban Air Pollution in Six South American Cities. Earth Syst. Environ. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-026-01068-9
Casallas A., Tompkins A.M., Muller C., 2026. Moisture and Wind Effects of Rossby Waves on Western Pacific ITCZ Breakdown Events. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., e70131, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70131 - (From Ph.D. Thesis, Chapter 5)
Ibarra-Espinosa S., …, Casallas A., et al. 2026. A Century of Vehicular Emissions in Brazil: Unveiling the Impacts of Unique Fuel Mix on Air Quality. Environ Sci Technol. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c08400
Antezana-Lopez F.P., Casallas A., Guanhua Z., Zhang K., Jing G., Ali A., Lopez-Barrera E.A., Belalcazar L.C., Rojas N., Jiang H., 2025. High-Resolution Anthropogenic Emission Inventories with Deep Learning in Northern South America. Remote Sens. Environ. 324, 114761, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2025.114761
Casallas A., Tompkins A.M., Muller C., Thompson G., 2025. Sensitivity of Self-Aggregation and the Key Role of the Free Convection Distance. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 17, e2024MS004791, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004791 - (From Ph.D. Thesis, Chapter 3)
Tompkins A.M., Casallas A., De Vera M.V. 2025. Drivers of Mesoscale Convective Aggregation and Spatial Humidity Variability in the Tropical Western Pacific. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 8, 69, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00848-2 - (From Ph.D. Thesis, Chapter 4)
Quishpe-Vásquez C., Oliva P., López-Barrera E.A., Casallas A. 2024. Wildfires Impact on PM2.5 Concentration in Galicia Spain. J. Environ. Manage., 367, 122093, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122093
Cabrera A., Ferro C., Casallas A., López-Barrera E.A., 2024. Wildfire Scenarios for Assessing Risk of Cover Loss in a Megadiverse Zone within the Colombian Caribbean. Sustainability, 16, 3410, https://doi.org/10.3390/su16083410
Casallas A., Cabrera A., Guevara-Luna M.A., Tompkins A., Gonzalez Y., Aranda J., Belalcázar L.C., Mogollon-Sotelo C., Celis N., Lopez-Barrera E.A., Peña-Rincon C.A., Ferro C., Online: 2023, Issue: 2024. Air Pollution Analysis in Northwestern South America: A New Lagrangian Framework. Sci. Total Environ., 906, 167350, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167350
Celis N., Casallas A., López-Barrera E.A., Felician M., De Marchi M., Pappalardo S., 2023. Climate Change, Forest Fires, and Territorial Dynamics in Amazon Rainforest: an integrated analysis for mitigation strategies. ISPRS Int. J. Geoinf., 12, 436, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi12100436
Guevara-Luna M.A., Guevara-Luna F., Casallas A., Belalcazar L.C., 2023. Exposure risk to Carbon Monoxide concentrations inside a diesel-based Bus Rapid Transport system. A CFD-Monte Carlo modeling approach. Model Earth Syst. Environ., 9, 3403-3414, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01688-4
Casallas A., Castillo-Camacho M.P., Celis N., Belalcazar L.C., Ferro C., et al., 2023. Surface, satellite Ozone variations in Northern South America during low anthropogenic emission conditions: a Machine Learning approach. Air Qual. Atmos. Health., 16, 745-764, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-023-01303-6
Guevara-Luna M.A., Ramos L., Casallas A., Guevara-Luna F., Online: 2022, Issue: 2023. Design of an energy vulnerability index - spatial and temporal analysis: Case of study Colombia. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res., 30, 31977-31997, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-24480-w
Casallas A., Jimenez-Saenz C., Lopez-Barrera E.A., Celis N., Ferro C., Arenas R., et al., 2022. Design of a forest fires early alert system through a deep 3D-CNN structure and a WRF-CNN bias correction. Sensors., 22, 8790, https://doi.org/10.3390/s22228790
Casallas A., Castillo-Camacho M.P., Guevara-Luna M.A., Gonzalez Y., Sánchez E., Belalcázar L.C., 2022. Spatio-temporal analysis of PM2.5 and policies in Northwestern South America. Sci. Total Environ., 852, 158504, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158504
Casallas A., Córdoba T., Sánchez-Cardenas L., Guevara-Luna M.A., Belalcázar L.C., Online: 2022, Issue: 2023. Understanding the atmospheric characteristics of high polluted events in a tropical megacity. Rev. EIA. Esc. Ing. Antioq., 107, 53-65, https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.redin.20220682
Celis N., Casallas A., Lopez-Barrera E.A., Martínez H., Peña-Rincón C.A., Arenas R., Ferro C., Online: 2021, Issue: 2022. Design of an early alert system for PM2.5 through a stochastic model and machine learning. Environ. Sci. Pol., 127, 241-252, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2021.10.030
Casallas A., Ferro C., Celis N., Guevara-Luna M.A., Mogollon-Sotelo C., Guevara-Luna F., Merchan M., Online: 2021, Issue: 2022. Long short-term memory artificial neural network approach to forecast meteorology and PM2.5 local variables in Bogotá, Colombia. Model Earth Syst. Environ., 8, 2951-2964, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-021-01274-6
Sokhi R., …, Casallas A., et al., 2021. A global observational analysis to understand changes in air quality during exceptionally low anthropogenic emission conditions. Environ. Int., 157, 106818, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2021.106818
Casallas A., Hernández-Deckers D., Mora-Paez H., Online: 2021, Issue: 2023. Understanding convective storms in a tropical, high-altitude location with in-situ meteorological observations and GPS-derived water vapor. Atmosfera., 36(2), 225-238, https://doi.org/10.20937/ATM.53051 - (From MSc thesis)
Colón-González F.J., Odhiambo M., Tompkins A.M., Sjödin H., Casallas A., Rocklöv J., Caminade C., Lowe R., 2021. Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study. Lancet Planet. Health, 5, e404-e414, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00132-7
Mogollón-Sotelo C., Casallas A., Vidal S., Celis N., Ferro C., Belalcázar L.C., Online: 2020, Issue: 2021. A support vector machine model to forecast ground-level PM2.5 in a highly populated city with complex terrain. Air Qual. Atmos. Health, 14, 399-409, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-020-00945-0
Guevara-Luna M.A., Casallas A., Belalcázar L.C., Clappier A., 2020. Implementation and evaluation of WRF simulation over a city with complex terrain using Alos-Palsar 0.4s topography. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res., 27, 37818-37838, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09824-8
Casallas A., Celis, N., Ferro C., Peña-Rincón C.A., Lopez-Barrera E.A., Corredor J., Ballen-Segura M., 2020. Validation of PM10 and PM2.5 early alert in Bogotá, Colombia, through the modeling software WRF-CHEM. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res., 27, 35930-35940, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-06997-9
Book Chapters and Technical Reports
Cabrera A., Casallas A., González Y., Celis N., Mogollon C., Belalcazar L.C., 2024. Informe del estado actual de la calidad del aire en Colombia 2022. Chapter 1, section 1.2.3: Análisis espacial de la calidad del aire en Colombia por medio de Reanálisis e información satelital. Technical Report. IDEAM (Colombian Government). Available here (only in Spanish).
Mogollon C., Casallas A., Gonzalez Y., Celis N., Cabrera A., Belalcazar L.C., 2024. Informe del Estado del Ambiente y los Recursos Naturales Renovables 2022. Chapter 2, section 2.1.4.2: Análisis espacial de la calidad del aire en Colombia por medio de Reanálisis e información satelital. Technical Report. IDEAM (Colombian Government). Available here (only in Spanish).
Acevedo J., Cabrera A., Casallas A., Belalcazar L.C., Camelo E., Ferro C., 2023. Informe del estado actual de la calidad del aire en Colombia 2021. Chapter 6: Análisis espacial de la calidad del aire en Colombia por medio de datos de satelitales. Technical Report. IDEAM (Colombian Government). Available here (only in Spanish).
Castillo M.P., Sanchez E.R, Celis N., Gonzalez Y., Casallas A., Belalcazar L.C., 2022. Informe del estado actual de la calidad del aire en Colombia 2020. Chapter 6: Impacto de las restricciones asociadas a la pandemia por Covid-19 en la Calidad del aire. Technical Report. IDEAM (Colombian Government). Available here (only in Spanish).
Casallas A., Lopez-Barrera E.A., Zarate J.D., Aragon J.P., Celis N., Camelo E., Martinez H., 2022. Efectos del confinamiento por pandemia en la contaminación atmosférica de Bogotá, Colombia. Book Chapter. Editorial Universidad Sergio Arboleda. Available here (only in Spanish).
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