๐๐๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌโ ๐๐๐๐ซ ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง, ๐๐๐ง๐ฎ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฎ๐ข๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐ฌ
One of the key discussion points in our recent Propulsion Strategies for the 21st Century Conference focused on whether, because the current administration and Congress are reducing or eliminating fuel economy and emissions regulations, manufacturers will be content to build and sell only internal combustion engines (ICE) over the next few years. Eric Anderson from S&P Global Mobility, like most of our other speakers, does not think these government actions will stop EV development and production.ย All the speakers see a reduction in EVs sales and more nuanced decisions about which segments will offer EV variants. In this clip, Eric describes his reasoning for a multi-energy (powertrain) near term market, rather than a pure ICE market.
Having said that, the 2024 automakers selling in the US sold 80 percent ICE vehicles, 11 percent hybrids, 3 percent plug-in hybrids, and 6 percent pure EVs. If one includes the 14 percent of hybrids that also have internal combustion engines, then the US market purchased 94 percent ICE vehicles.ย Though our speakers expect an uptick in hybrid and plug-in hybrid sales (along with a reduction in EV sales), the US will continue to be a market of new vehicles made up overwhelmingly of ICE vehicles. The EU is similar with 86 percent ICE sales in 2024; whereas, Chinaโs ICE sales were 53 percent and shrinking dramatically.ย
Of course, one can argue that hybrids and plug-in hybrids are an emissions improvement on pure ICE vehicles, but it seems like only China is acting with any sense of urgency in reducing CO2 emissions in the vehicle sector (the power sector is another story).ย They are leading because they decided about 15 years ago to seriously begin the transition to EVs by mining battery materials/minerals at home and abroad while also mastering processing these materials.ย The EU and the US only started within the last few years to build their own EV battery supply chains.ย With the US bowing out of the process, only the EU and China will continue mastering EV technology.
All the automakers that sell globally will have to design and build EVs in order to compete in China and the EU, but the big question will be if they will commit to mastering EV technology that is still in its early stage of development.ย ย
๐๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฉ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐งโ๐ญ ๐๐๐ข๐ญ
Alan Taub, Director of the University of Michiganโs EV Center thinks, โWe are at risk of losing our industry,โ if we do not keep up with the latest battery technology. Alan spoke at our recent Propulsion Strategies for the 21st Century conference at the University of Michigan. As this short video shows, Alan doesnโt think that the US battery industry is hopelessly behind in battery development, but he also thinks that the US must not allow itself to be left behind. Itโs interesting that most of the main battery developers in the US are Korean and Japanese with Tesla doing some development along with Korean and Japanese partners in the US and Chinese partners in China.ย ย
There are a number of US startup battery companies that are developing batteries but not at scale. Because the current administration is not supporting the EV industry, it will be up to auto manufacturers, suppliers, and universities to continue battery development.
Weโll be following Alanโs EV Center as they take on research projects with manufacturers and suppliers now and at their new Battery Center that will be built at the UM Transportation Research Center.ย ย
๐๐จ๐ฒ๐จ๐ญ๐ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ข-๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฒ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐ฌ ๐ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ซ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐
During last weekโs 17th Annual Propulsion Strategies for the 21st Century conference at the University of Michigan, Brian Schneidewind from Toyota North America spoke about his companyโs multi-energy propulsion systems, with the current focus on hybrids in the US yet at the same time building EVs in China. Both companies still sell primarily internal combustion engine vehicles in China and the US.
As Brian mentions in this clip, for the near future, major manufacturers must be able to master and continually improve all powertrain technologies in order to remain flexible globally. During our discussion with him, he discussed his role as Vice-President of Powertrain Design and R&D as supporting the organization to transition its engineers to use new technologies to shorten development time. He sees the Chinese competition as state-supported but also with very energetic engineers, continually testing new ideas that competitors must match.
๐ ๐จ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ข-๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ข๐ง ๐ ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐
During our recent Propulsion Strategies for the 21st Century hybrid conference at the University of Michigan, most of our presenters described a near-term US powertrain future that is multi-energy: internal combustion engines, hybrids (mild hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and full hybrids), and battery electric propulsion systems. This graph from Eric Anderson, MBA from S&P Global Mobility shows his group's propulsion forecast through 2032.ย ย
Surprisingly, EVs continue to grow during this time as do hybrids, and internal combustion engines slowly decrease over time. Itโs surprising for two reasons: 1) Nearly 80 percent of the vehicles US manufacturers currently sell have internal combustion engines, while another 10 percent of the vehicles are hybrids that also include internal combustion engines.ย 2) The current administration has cancelled the EV new and used vehicle incentives and changed the Corporate Average Fuel Economy program so that manufacturers will not owe any fines, even if they do not meet any of the goals set by the government.ย So, manufacturers have no incentive to change what they are currently doing, at least in the US.
There may be some emissions regulations that affect the type of internal combustion engines sold, but these regulations are also being made less stringent by the current administration. Thus, we will have to see if manufacturers continue on their current path of selling high levels of internal combustion engine-based vehicles, or if they decide that the reprieves from fuel economy and emissions regulations are temporary, and that they need to continue to develop EVs for the future (though much more slowly than in the recent past).ย
๐๐ข๐๐ก๐ข๐ ๐๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ ๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ
Alan Taub, Director of the University of Michigan Electric Vehicle Center, discussed the importance of EV charging at our 17th Annual Propulsion Strategies for the 21st Century hybrid conference last week at the UM. Itโs striking how much the Level 3, DC fast chargers have increased in Michigan, as shown on this chart.
Since the federal funding for more chargers throughout the US has been cut, it will be important for the states, the auto companies, third party charging companies, and utilities throughout the US to pick up where the previous administration left off. There are a number of projects that have been initiated by all these actors, so we will be following how the charging rollout continues. One way of tracking the roll out is through the following government website: https://lnkd.in/gbTm-R9V
As of Sunday, July 20th, the combination of public and private charging sites the US includes:
79,346 Charging Stations
243,754 Charging Ports
Of those ports:
2,622 are Level 1 Chargers
181,827 are Level 2 Chargers
59,282 are Level 3 DC Fast Chargers
One thing the government doesnโt track is at home charging, which represents 80 percent of all charging currently.ย The combination of at home and public charging is what makes EV ownership unique. The gap in research that needs to be addressed is determining exactly how many public chargers are needed to meet future demand as EVs become a larger part of the fleet but also after they have reached their maximum fleet penetration in the future.
๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐ฐ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ ๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ ๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ซ๐ฌ
At this weekโs Propulsion Strategies for the 21st Century hybrid conference at the University of Michigan, Bruce Belzowski provided results from Automotive Futures Groupsโ Future of EV Charging expert survey. The experts were asked how many of each type of charger will be needed at major freeway charging stations in 2030. Though technology may change by 2030, especially as battery manufacturers begin to develop batteries that can accept greater amounts of electricity, the need to mirror or exceed gasoline fillup times will be one of the benchmarks for the transition to EVs. Accordingly, the experts think that 11 DC fast chargers will be needed to meet this goal by 2030. Interestingly, they also think there will be 7 Level 2 chargers needed. It will probably be the case that DC fast chargers will be more expensive to use than Level 2 chargers, so providing options for drivers will be a reasonable option.
A major question is the location of all these chargers. Will current freeway gas stations transition to EV charging stations, or will completely new stations, like Tesla Superchargers, take over? Whichever model or mixed model occurs, utility experts say that electric companies will need significant lead time to support the amount of electricity needed for all the DC fast chargers that will be needed. This may be one of the bigger barriers to meeting freeway charging needs in the future.
๐๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ข๐๐ฅ
Our recent Propulsion Strategies for the 21st Century Survey focused on EV charging. One of our questions asked our industry experts: How important is it for auto manufacturers to support EV charging infrastructure? As this graph shows, the overwhelming response is that OEMs have an extremely important role to play in the future of EV charging. Some OEMs have already formed consortiums to work together to develop charging infrastructure, and some individual companies have started their own charging networks, following Teslaโs strategy that allows EV owners to drive across the country, always finding accessible chargers. Some of the charging stations are being designed as luxury EV stops, while some companies are working with charging companies such as ChargePoint, EVgo, or Blink to develop their supporting charging networks.
We asked many more questions about the role and development of chargers in the US over the next 5 years, and weโll be presenting these results at our upcoming 17th Annual Propulsion Strategies for the 21st Century hybrid conference on July 16th at the University of Michigan.ย
๐๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ข๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ซ? ๐๐จ๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ง๐
From our first looks at EVs in 2010s, we knew they would have to meet or exceed customer expectations for charging. Our recent 2025 Propulsion Strategies for the 21st Century Survey on the Future of EV Charging focused on future EV sales, charging regulations/policies, station strategies, consumer options, and future considerations.ย One question we asked our group of industry experts was how long should drivers have to wait to charge at a public charger.ย As this graph shows, the experts think consumers will not wait longer than five minutes.
Charging stations are different from gas stations because more than 80 percent of EV owners charge at home.ย Because EVs have ranges of over 200 miles per charge, most consumers will only need to charge often on longer trips or long commutes.ย This should mean there is less need for public chargers.ย But urban EV owners and long distance drivers will need access to public chargers, nearly as much as they need gas stations. While Level 2 home chargers offer relatively slow charging times, public charging infrastructure is increasingly focused on DC fast chargers, which can deliver up to an 80% charge in just 10โ15 minutes. Also, auto manufacturers, public utilities, and third parties are slowly building out the charging infrastructure.ย EVs and charging will be part of our discussion at our 17th Annual Propulsion Strategies for the 21st Century Hybrid Conference at the University of Michigan on July 16th.ย Join us to discuss where the automotive propulsion industry is heading.ย
๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐ก๐๐ข ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ก๐จ๐ฐ
We always expect a high number of EVs at any Chinese auto show.ย But the 2025 Shanghai Auto Show also included just as many PHEVs.ย Whatโs sometimes missed in the discussion of Chinaโs continuing increase of New Energy Vehicles is that they include EVs, PHEVs, and fuel cell vehicles.ย With a market share of 40-50 percent and growing, NEVs put EVs and PHEVs on equal footing, which they are not.ย PHEVs, though they tend to get better fuel economy than gas vehicles, still have engines with exhaust emissions, and some recent research from the EU says that PHEV owners do not plug in their batteries regularly, thus relying on their engines that are not optimized to drive the vehicle without the support of the battery.ย ย
These slides show that even Chinese manufacturers are hedging their bets by providing a PHEV option along with their EV option for the same vehicle.ย BYD has done this for years, where sometimes half of their sales are PHEVs.ย All this is a response to range and charger anxiety in China as well as in the US and the EU, though China has thousands, if not millions, more chargers available.ย ย
Weโre tracking EVs and charging in China, the US, and the EU at our EV Evolutions research program.ย ย
๐๐ง๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐๐ก๐ข๐ ๐๐ง ๐๐/๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ก ๐๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌย
Recent research from University of Michigan student Alexander Villagomez shows the differences and similarities of EV policies in the US and the EU.ย As Alex states in his conclusion, โThe EU and U.S. have reached comparable milestones in EV adoption, but they reflect fundamentally different approaches. The EUโs progress stems from regulatory consistency โ its binding emissions standards and mandated infrastructure targets provide a stable policy environment that holds automakers accountable across member states. The U.S.โs success has been more volatile โ driven by large-scale financial incentives like those in the IRA, but vulnerable to political shifts and federal-state conflicts over implementation. Their strategies toward China also differ. The U.S. has pursued supply chain decoupling aggressively, limiting access to tax credits for vehicles with Chinese components. The EU, while also concerned about supply chain independence, is taking a more gradual approach focused on building domestic capacity. In the end, the EU offers a more rule-based and enforceable path to EV adoption, while the U.S. highlights the potential and fragility of incentive-driven market acceleration.ย These differences not only shape national EV trajectories but also reveal contrasting views on industrial sovereignty and global competition.โ
All policies are subject to change.ย The new US administration goals prove the point about the fragility of incentive-driven markets, while the EU recently granted a 3 year extension for EU manufacturers to meet their CO2 emissions goals.ย Changes may also occur with each regionโs dealings with China.ย The US may eventually focus on reducing tariffs on Chinese vehicles imported into the US, or the Chinese, like the Japanese before them, will begin building vehicles in the US.ย In the EU, the Chinese are already building EV and battery factories in the EU, and there are hints that there may be joint ventures with EU manufacturers in the offing.
These are the types of analyses we develop as part of our EV Evolutions research program, and we thank Alex for his work on US/EU EV policies over the past school year.ย ย
๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ก๐๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ก ๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ง๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐๐ก๐ข๐ ๐๐งย
Recent research from University of Michigan student Nitya Wanchoo shows the impact of Biden Administration support for the US EV supply chain through the Bi-Partisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act.ย Though many of the provisions of these laws are in danger of cancellation, the many EV and battery plants, and the redesign of many existing auto manufacturer and supplier plants are already near or at completion.ย Nityaโs poster, as shown here, covers the details of the EV and battery manufacturing plants, shows the location and size of the investments across the US, and displays the many relationships of auto manufacturers and battery suppliers in the US.ย
Itโs an impressive set of information and analysis that we support at Automotive Futures through our research on the EV industry in the US, EU, and China.ย Nitya spent two sememsters with us developing her understanding of the US EV supply chain, but also learning about the global auto industry.ย Weโre continuing to update our EV databases and measure the effects of the new administration on the EV industry in the US through our EV Evolutions research program.
๐๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ฐ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ข-๐๐ข๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐
As part of our EV Evolutions research program, we track company strategies related to EV technology, including charging.ย GM Energy, a subsidiary of General Motors, recently is taking a more Tesla-like approach to highway and home EV charging.
GM Energy, Pilot Company, and EVgo expanded their EV fast-charging network to over 130 Pilot and Flying J on popular interstate corridors, similar to Teslaโs original Supercharger network that showed that an EV can travel across America with an EV.ย GM is also part of the IONNA initiative that combines the efforts of multiple manufacturers to build charging stations that support all vehicles.
GM Energy recently joined a pilot project with Pacific, Gas, and Electric to test the capability of bi-directional and home energy storage to help manage loads on the grid as well as acting as backup electricity in case of power outages, similar to Teslaโs Powerwalls.
GM sees these as supporting consumersโ decisions to purchase EVs by offering a total cost of ownership approach.ย In the future, bi-directional charging should reduce electric utility bills by either using less energy at home and/or selling energy back to the grid.ย As a subsidiary, GM Energy has some freedom to experiment, but it also can be sold off or disbanded like Cruise was last year.ย Yet charging, especially long distance charging, is one of the major factors holding some buyers back from purchasing EV.ย As more chargers become available, potential buyers will no longer see them as one of a number of roadblocks to purchasing EVs.ย
๐๐จ๐ง๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐จ๐ฒ๐จ๐ญ๐โ๐ฌ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ
Managing the need for local batteries to avoid tariffs, Honda inked an agreement with Toyota Motor Corporation to purchase batteries for their hybrid vehicles from Toyotaโs new battery plant in North Carolina.ย Both Honda and Toyota have pushed for hybrids over pure EVs, yet Toyota recently took over EV battery orders from a former GM/LGES plant in Lansing, Michigan as well as building their own battery plant in North Carolina.ย It sure looks like they are positioning themselves for a near-future EV world.ย This also includes their building of an EV plant near Shanghai to support their Chinese sales.ย Weโll be keeping an eye on these continuing EV battery factory developments with the largest global automaker through our EV Evolutions research project.ย
๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ ๐๐๐ก๐ข๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ง ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐% ๐๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐ซ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ง ๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฌ
Itโs interesting that we usually find that lab results donโt always translate to real world use, but a study published in Nature Energy by SLAC-Stanford Battery Center found that EV batteries can last up to 38% longer in real-world conditions than laboratory tests predict, challenging prior assumptions about battery longevity.
The research analyzed data from EVs in actual use and found that batteries degrade more slowly in real-world driving, likely due to more varied driving patterns and charging behaviors compared to controlled lab conditions.ย Current lab tests, used by automakers and regulators to estimate battery lifespan, may not fully capture the effects of real-world conditions, leading to underestimations of battery durability.ย This is a result that needs more verification across multiple battery chemistries and EV makers.ย Understanding how EVs actually work in everyday use will be extremely important in marketing EVs going forward.
๐๐๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐ ๐๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐๐ฒ๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐ฌ, ๐๐จ๐ญ ๐๐๐๐ฌ, ๐๐๐ค๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ฌ๐, ๐๐จ๐ฒ๐จ๐ญ๐ ๐๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ฐ๐จ ๐๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ฌ
Toyota has spent the last couple of years trying to convince people that BEVs are not ready for consumers, despite the growth of Tesla and the Chinese BEV makers.ย They are correct that it is difficult for auto companies to make BEVs profitably, with many of the Chinese BEV-only companies still not profitable.ย And Tesla would not have survived in the US without the ability to sell fuel economy credits to the Big 3 automakers.ย BYD is profitable because of the long term support of NEVs by the Chinese government and now their export capability.ย But to say that the technology is not ready for consumers is just not true, and Toyota knows this.
To their credit they developed a RAV4-styled compact SUV BEV, though it does not provide enough range to compete with the Model Y.ย But other BEVs are in the works.ย In order to compete in China where it seems 40 percent of new car buyers think EV technology is ready, Toyota is building a Lexus electric vehicle and battery company in Shanghai, their first Chinese factory that does not require a Chinese joint venture partner.ย Production is slated to begin in 2027.
In the US, Toyota took advantage of investment support from the Inflation Reduction Law to build a $14 billion electric vehicle battery plant in North Carolina that is expected to create about 5K jobs and will be Toyotaโs 11th production plant in the US and the first fully owned battery plant outside of Japan.
Both of these industrial moves have interesting reasonings.ย In China, Toyota is losing market share like the other traditional automakers, so they have a sense of urgency to meet consumer (and government) demand.ย Coming out with a luxury BEV allows them to separate themselves from the low end of the BEV market.ย The major question is where will the batteries come from:ย China or Japan?
For the US, the US government investment support played a big role in their decision, but the plant is now ready to produce batteries for hybrids, PHEVs, and BEVs.ย This allows them to continue to market hybrid technology while developing more competitive batteries.ย Toyota plays the long game, but their late arrival to BEVs requires them to compete against BEV companies that have batteries that are a generation or more ahead of their technology.ย We will see how fast they can catch up.ย As Sherlock Holmes stated, โThe game is afoot!โ
๐๐ก๐ ๐ ๐ข๐ซ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ฒ-๐๐ซ๐๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐๐๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ค๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐ค๐ฅ๐๐ก๐จ๐ฆ๐
This article from Electrek.co, https://lnkd.in/gFNhFVYx, reports that Stardust Power in Muskogee, OK officially broke ground on the only battery-grade lithium refinery in the US.ย The Inflation Reduction Act supported this company because the US lacks refining capabilities for lithium, which is dominated by China.ย State and federal economic incentives will total $257 million of the total $1.2 billion for the plant.ย We are waiting to see if the new administration will delay or cancel their portion of the incentives based on their intentions to eliminate anything having to do with climate change.ย Weโll be discussing this issue at our April 22nd conference on the effects of the new administration on the automotive industry.ย Weโre sure it will be an interesting discussion.
๐ ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ ๐๐จ๐๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฉ๐ฌ ๐ ๐ฅ๐๐๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ ๐๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐๐๐ฌ
Ford Pro has been a success for Ford Motor Company in the US and the EU.ย Theyโve been in the forefront in developing fleet systems for both their gas and EV offerings.ย Now Ford offers companies a software program called Ford Pro E-Switch Assist to help companies decide if their fleets can benefit from purchasing and running EVs.ย This article in Auto Remarketing, https://lnkd.in/gANWuGRb, provides the details of the program, but it taps into offerings Ford Pro presented in one of our past conferences:ย providing chargers for drivers who take their vehicles home and helping them with the best times to charge, while also managing reimbursement.ย These programs are exactly what fleets need to make it easier to decide if and when to transition to EVs.
๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ค ๐๐ง ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฉ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ข๐ซ ๐๐ฐ๐ง ๐๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฌ
General Motors and Volkswagen are following Tesla in developing their own battery cells.ย Tesla has been building their own battery cells for their vehicles for years (though they, like all the other major auto companies, except BYD, also purchase batteries from Asian battery suppliers).ย Now General Motors and VW want to do the same.ย General Motors recently announced it is planning to build a $145 million battery cell prototype factory at its Global Technical Center campus in Warren, Michigan.ย This facility will help GM accelerate the development of electric vehicle battery cells, reduce costs, and address manufacturability issues before mass production. Battery cell production is expected to begin in 2027.ย Volkswagen also is building plants in Germany and Spain to build their own batteries with plans to begin producing batteries in 2025.ย Whatโs important to note is that these plants are also R&D labs for testing new battery technology.ย Batteries are not in their final stage of development, and nearly all OEMs are partnering with battery development companies to work on the next generation of batteries, including solid state batteries.ย Whatโs interesting is that the leading battery companies are based in Asia and are selling their batteries to these OEMs for their vehicles today.ย Yet the OEMs feel they need to be in the game, understand it, and maybe become one of the leaders in battery technology, similar to their dominance in internal combustion engines.ย What we will be tracking as part of our EV Evolutions project will be how the major battery suppliers react to the challenge of their customers competing with them on batteries.ย OEMs already play the battery suppliers against each other in order to get the best technology at the best price, but a company needs to know where the technology is headed to make the best battery choice, which is where their own battery development comes in.
๐ ๐๐ฐ๐๐ซ ๐ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐, ๐.๐. ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ซ ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ
Public charging for electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States is showing measurable signs of progress in 2025, with failed charging attempts falling to their lowest level in four years, according to J.D. Powerโs latest EVX Public Charging Study. Despite delays in National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) funding, the industry has moved forward with improvements in reliability, underscoring the role of automakers and charging providers in strengthening networks even without federal support. Overall satisfaction, however, continues to lag, with scores for DC fast charging and Level 2 charging declining to 654 and 607, respectively, as costs and payment processes drag down the experience.
The share of EV owners unable to charge during a visit has fallen to just 14%, down from 19% in 2024โa meaningful improvement that highlights better station uptime and service quality. Yet, satisfaction with charging costs has declined sharply, reflecting both rising electricity rates and the end of widespread free charging incentives. Non-Tesla drivers using Superchargers report particularly low value relative to cost, underscoring the challenges of extending a brand-driven ecosystem to a wider customer base. At the same time, OEM-branded networks from Mercedes-Benz, Rivian, and Ford are beginning to achieve Tesla-level satisfaction, even if their smaller footprints kept them from ranking formally this year.
Performance varies widely across regions and cities. The Pacific region leads in non-charge visits, with one in five EV owners reporting failed attempts, while the East South Central region reports the lowest rates. Seattle and Los Angeles stand out for high failed-charging rates, while San Francisco and Denver report more frequent wait times for available chargers. Out-of-service hardware remains the top cause of failed visits, affecting 60% of incidents. These patterns point to ongoing challenges in scaling infrastructure evenly across the country.
Notably, first-time EV owners are more satisfied with charging than veteran owners, suggesting that expectations rise with experience. While newcomers rate both Level 2 and DC fast charging more positively, longer-term drivers are increasingly critical of costs and technology gaps. The findings highlight that building more stations or faster chargers is not enough: customer trust depends on delivering reliable, cost-effective, and seamless charging experiences. Tesla continues to lead in both Level 2 (Tesla Destination) and DC fast charging (Tesla Supercharger), but competition is intensifying as automakers move to replicate its vertically integrated approach.
๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ ๐๐๐ก๐ข๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฉ๐ฉ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ ๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐ ๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ, ๐.๐. ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ซ ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ
Mobile apps are becoming an essential part of the electric vehicle (EV) ownership experience in the United States, with engagement levels hitting new highs in 2025, according to J.D. Powerโs latest U.S. OEM EV App Report. Nearly one-third of non-Tesla owners now use their app every time they driveโup from just 17% in 2024โwhile Tesla users show even greater reliance at 79%. Apps have become indispensable for functions like charging management, climate control, and route planning, but overall satisfaction continues to be constrained by slow response times, connectivity issues, and inconsistent feature performance. As expectations rise, the speed and reliability of remote commands are emerging as decisive factors for customer trust.
Speed remains the biggest differentiator: almost half of EV owners expect apps to respond to remote commands in under five seconds, while 40% of Tesla users expect responses in just one to two seconds. Teslaโs performance in this area has translated into higher satisfaction scores (7.9 out of 10 vs. 5.5 for non-Tesla users), giving it a competitive edge. Connectivity also shows improvement, with Tesla cutting its complaint rate nearly in half year-over-year, while over a third of non-Tesla owners still report lost connections or delayed updates. These gaps highlight the need for manufacturers to make consistent app updates and improve communication about app functionality.
At the same time, many EV owners remain under-engaged with advanced features. While more than 70% of users express strong interest in services like charge scheduling, trip planning, and in-app payment for public charging, large shares of non-Tesla owners have never used them. This gap between interest and use points to both awareness and availability issues. Feature desirability itself is evolving, with growing demand for driver profile customization, remote window controls, smartphone key access, and in-app security alerts, while core functions like vehicle status checks and over-the-air updates remain must-haves for nearly all owners.
In rankings, Tesla once again leads overall and among premium EV apps with a score of 864, followed by Mercedes-Benz (839) and My BMW (833). In the mass market category, MyHyundai with Bluelink ranks highest at 820, ahead of Kia Access (808) and MINI (797). The findings reinforce that EV apps are no longer optional extensions of the ownership experience but are now central to it. Automakers that can deliver fast, reliable, and feature-rich mobile experiences will strengthen customer satisfaction and loyalty as the EV market matures.
๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ก๐๐ฌ๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ญ๐๐๐๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐ก๐ข๐๐ญ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐ข๐๐ข๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ, ๐.๐. ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ซ ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ
Electric vehicle (EV) purchase consideration in Canada remains stable in 2025 at 28%, according to J.D. Powerโs latest Canada Electric Vehicle Consideration (EVC) Study. While essentially unchanged year over year, Canadian shoppers are still less than half as likely to consider an EV as U.S. shoppers, where consideration holds at 59%. Beneath the steady topline number, however, the market is shifting. The federal pause of the $5,000 Incentives for Zero Emissions Vehicles (iZEV) rebate program has influenced buyer attitudes, with 42% of likely EV shoppers saying the change reduced their intent to purchase. In Quebecโwhere provincial rebates were briefly paused earlier in the yearโconsideration dropped eight percentage points, while it rose modestly elsewhere in Canada.
Brand preferences are undergoing a dramatic reshuffle. Hyundai, Kia, Toyota, Ford, and Chevrolet are now the top five most-considered EV brands, reflecting a tilt toward established automakers with broader dealer and service networks. Tesla, which consistently ranked in the top two in prior years, has fallen to eighth place, down 16 percentage points year over year. By contrast, all other brands combined gained only half a percentage point, highlighting the scale of Teslaโs decline relative to peers.
Confidence in Canadaโs long-term electrification targets remains weak. Three-quarters of new-vehicle shoppers say they are not confident the federal government will meet its goal of 100% zero-emission vehicle sales for new light-duty vehicles by 2035. This skepticism, coupled with shifting brand dynamics and the uncertainty of incentive programs, underscores the fragility of EV adoption momentum in the Canadian market.
The findings highlight that while consumer interest in EVs is not collapsing, it is increasingly shaped by policy signals and brand trust. Automakers that can offer reliable dealer support, competitive pricing, and visible progress toward charging and ownership convenience will be best positioned to capture Canadian buyers as incentives ebb and consumer preferences evolve.
๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ก๐๐ฌ๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ญ๐๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ฒ, ๐.๐. ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ซ ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌย
Consumer demand for electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States has remained stable in 2025, according to J.D. Powerโs U.S. Electric Vehicle Consideration (EVC) Study. This year, 24% of new-vehicle shoppers say they are โvery likelyโ to consider an EV and 35% say they are โsomewhat likely,โ unchanged from 2024. The findings suggest that despite market volatility and affordability concerns, EVs have secured a solid foundation of consumer interest. To build on this base, the industry must continue to deliver affordable products and expand education around EV ownership, especially in areas where consumer concerns may be overstated.
Cross-shopping activity underscores the opportunity for automakers. EV shoppers who are โvery likelyโ to consider an EV explore an average of 2.9 brands, while โsomewhat likelyโ shoppers cross-shop 2.8 brands. This aligns with broader sales data showing EV buyers shop more dealer brands than gasoline vehicle buyers. The trend demonstrates strong potential for mass-market and premium brands alike to capture buyers outside their traditional customer base.
Charging access remains the biggest barrier, cited by 52% of shoppers rejecting EVs. However, concerns about purchase price and cost of ownership are easing, with rejection due to price falling 4 percentage points to 43% and cost of ownership concerns dropping 2 points to 33%. The affordability gap remains pronounced: younger consumers (ages 25-49) are most open to EVs but often lack the income to afford them, while older consumers typically have the means but show lower levels of interest. This tension highlights the importance of mass-market EVs to bridge affordability and demand.
Regional variation persists. Midwest statesโincluding Wisconsin, Kentucky, Minnesota, and Ohioโreport the lowest EV consideration levels, influenced by cold-weather performance concerns and stronger loyalty to traditional automakers. By contrast, coastal regions continue to show stronger interest, pointing to an uneven adoption landscape across the country.
Now in its fifth year, the U.S. EVC Study reaffirms that while EV demand has plateaued, it remains resilient amid economic uncertainty. Automakers that prioritize affordable pricing, expand consumer education, and improve perceptions around charging will be best positioned to convert steady consideration into stronger adoption.
๐๐ญ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐ ๐๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐ฌ: ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ?
Weโve been talking about solid state batteries for years now, hoping they would be the holy grail for EVs so that range would increase to match gas vehicles, fewer batteries would catch on fire, and charging would take less time. Stellantis is now testing batteries in its fleet of Daytona cars in real world situations using solid state batteries from Factorial Energy. (https://lnkd.in/gvWtZ8ri)ย We heard the CEO of Factorial speak at the recent SAE North American International Propulsion Conference in Chicago.ย She seemed very confident in her technology, and now we will follow Stellantisโ on-the-road experiment to see if her confidence is validated.ย All the major global battery makers are working on solid state batteries, but this is the first publicly announced road test of this battery technology.ย
Our own recent expert survey of the Future of Batteries predicted solid state batteries would only capture 6 percent of EV production by 2035, though semi-solid state would also have another 6 percent of production.ย One issue weโve run into when discussing solid state battery manufacturing is that this technology requires a very different manufacturing platform than lithium ion batteries, which means companies would have to transition their current battery plants at great cost in order to manufacture solid state batteries.ย
Cost also continues to be the main driver of EV pricing.ย Auto companies are getting closer to selling EVs at close to comparable gas vehicle prices, but this includes the $7,500 government incentive.ย Though solid state batteries offer some great advantages, how will the cost of transitioning and manufacturing these batteries affect the cost of an EV?ย In the end, US manufacturers will need to be profitable selling EVs in order to survive competitive global pressures, while customers will need to be able to afford the price of these new EVs.
๐๐๐ฌ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ก ๐๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐ก๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ง๐ญ-๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ ๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฒ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐๐ก๐๐ง ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ก๐ข๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฒ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ
The University of Michigan Departments of Mechanical Engineering and Economics released a report recently in the Journal Nature Communications (https://lnkd.in/eRmg2aP4) that shows that labor intensity in US BEV plants at startup can be up to 10 times higher than US internal combustion plants, while in a maturing BEV plant, labor intensity can be 3 times higher.ย This result contrasts with some early estimates that BEV production would lead to a smaller workforce.ย The authors, Andrew Weng, Omar Ahmed, Gabriel Ehrlich, and Anna Stefanopoulou report that one of three BEV plants in the study was considered a maturing plant, about 10 years old, while the other two plants are much newer.ย They estimate that it will take about 15 years for BEV production employment to mature to the point that makes it equal to ICE production employment.
๐ช๐ฎ๐๐บ๐ผ ๐๐๐๐ผ๐ป๐ผ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐ฒ๐ต๐ถ๐ฐ๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐จ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ๐ฟ ๐๐ฉ ๐ ๐ถ๐ป๐ถ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ฉ ๐ฆ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐บ
Waymo has used a number of vehicles in its autonomous vehicle development program over the years.ย Its six generation AV system will use Chinaโs Geely Zeekr brand for its minivan robotaxi program.ย Because Geely also owns the Volvo Group brand with R&D in Sweden, built by Geely in China, but AV software and hardware are designed and installed in the US.ย This version of the Waymo AV system purports to address one of the main constraints on AVs, bad weather.ย Waymo says that the more advanced sensor suite has been designed to better cope with bad weather, including freezing temperatures and snowy conditions. Some of the sensors can also clean themselves to ensure they can โseeโ even in adverse weather.ย If this is true, itโs a major breakthrough for AVs, one that we were not sure if we would ever see.ย Weโre ready for the Waymo Takes On Minneapolis YouTube video!ย
๐๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐งโ๐ญ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ญ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐ก๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ค๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐ ๐จ๐ซ๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ
This article from Carscoops.com (https://lnkd.in/gchjX2rA)ย provides some important context for the US 125 percent tariff on Chinese vehicles as well as the ban on Chinese and Russian vehicles that have certain connected vehicle technologies.ย The tariffs and ban may not be forever, but it gives US, EU, Korean, and Japanese companies some breathing room to develop their own competitive EVs.ย The Inflation Reduction Act provides massive amounts of investments for developing a US battery supply chain that will take many years to complete, while at the same time providing short term subsidies to companies to retool and consumers to purchase EVs.ย That being said, how the companies use their time will be key.ย Will they put forth the effort needed to design and build competitive EVs in terms of price and capability, or will they relax and live off the profits from selling gas vehicles.ย The next 10 years will be crucial in determining if traditional car companies will survive into the future.
๐๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ป๐ ๐ผ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น ๐๐ถ๐๐ต๐ถ๐๐บ ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฑ๐๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ป๐๐ฎ๐ ๐ง๐ผ ๐ฆ๐๐ฝ๐ฝ๐น๐ ๐ฆ๐ ๐ข๐ป ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ฒ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ด๐ถ๐ฎ
As weโve been tracking new battery production facilities in the US as part of our EV Evolutions project, one of the main concerns, especially for companies that want to take advantage of the full $7,500 EV incentive that is part of the Inflation Reduction Act, is how to obtain lithium from inside the US or one of our trading partners. Electrek reports that SK Onโs (South Korea battery company) agreement with ExxonMobil who will provide up to 100K metric tons of lithium via its lithium extraction project in Arkansas for its plants in Georgia is a win for both companies.ย It provides SK On with the needed local lithium, and it provides ExxonMobil with a partner with high volume lithium needs that helps establish the economies of scale that an oil/gas company is used to. ExxonMobil's Arkansas project aims to extract lithium from underground saltwater deposits, aiming to produce battery-grade material with greater efficiency and reduced environmental impact compared to traditional mining methods.
How successful this project will be is something we will be tracking, but it provides one of the best examples of the oil/gas companies trying to transition to supply EVs as they supply gas vehicles.
๐๐ฎ๐น๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฑ: ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ฉ ๐๐น๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ ๐ช๐ถ๐น๐น ๐จ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ถ-๐๐ถ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ด๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ง๐ผ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐๐ฉ ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ด๐ถ๐ป๐ด
This recent article in the NY Times talks about bi-directional charging as a way to balance the grid when millions of EVs are in the US fleet (https://lnkd.in/gahc5K2a).ย It also talks about General Motors and Ford offering a battery storage service for home charging.ย Whatโs missing from the article is the research from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) that has already established the balancing the grid protocol for EVs on the West coast but also in some other states.ย Our Affiliate representative Michael Kintner-Meyer from PNNL will present his recent analysis of this topic at our upcoming July 17th Propulsion Strategies for the 21st Century that will focus on the Future of EV Charging.ย He recently completed work for the US Department of Energy on this topic, so weโll get the most recent information about his research and how we may see charging playing out in the future.
๐๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ป ๐๐ฑ๐บ๐ถ๐ป๐ถ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฃ๐๐๐ ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ณ๐ณ๐ ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐๐ฒ ๐ฉ๐ฒ๐ต๐ถ๐ฐ๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐น๐๐ผ ๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น๐
Most automotive people know about the 100 percent tariffs of Chinese EVs by the Biden Administration, but there are also tariffs on EV batteries and battery materials:ย As noted on this White House Fact Sheet, the tariff rate on lithium-ion EV batteries will increase from 7.5%% to 25% in 2024, while the tariff rate on lithium-ion non-EV batteries will increase from 7.5% to 25% in 2026. The tariff rate on battery parts will increase from 7.5% to 25% in 2024. The tariff rate on natural graphite and permanent magnets will increase from zero to 25% in 2026. The tariff rate for certain other critical minerals will increase from zero to 25% in 2024.ย All of these tariffs are designed to provide the US the time it will take to develop its EV industry within North America and with its preferred trading partners.ย With the large lead China has on the rest of the world in battery technology, materials, and processing, it is estimated that the US will need nearly 10 years to catch up.ย The tricky part will be that China will not stand still.ย It will continue its R&D to develop EVs and batteries that will dominate in the interim.ย We are seeing the EU struggle to manage Chinaโs exporting of EVs that are now 20 percent of EU EV sales.ย China may decide to build plants in the EU, but it is unclear if they then will have the cost advantage they have now, though they may still have the technical advantage.ย We shall see.ย This Analysis is part of our EV Evolutions project that tracks policy, technology, and sales in China, the US, and the EU.ย
๐๐ผ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฉ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐ฐ๐๐น๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐ฝ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ป๐๐๐บ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ข๐๐ ๐๐ผ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ป ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ๐ป ๐๐ฉ/๐ฃ๐๐๐ฉ
Argonne National Laboratory, a division of the US Department of Energy, offers a tool that estimates, at the zip code level, how much they will save by driving a plug-in hybrid or pure EV compared to gas costs in their area.ย The tool called, Driving Electric:ย Local Fuel Savings Calculator, is free and can be tested at: https://lnkd.in/gF2FQQqB.ย This post is part of our EV Evolutions research project that tracks key issues related to EVs in the US, China, and the EU.
๐๐ง๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐๐ก๐ข๐ ๐๐ง ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ก ๐๐ก๐จ๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ก๐ข๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐จ๐ญ๐๐ฅ ๐๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ง๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐ก๐ข๐ฉ ๐๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ
A recent report by researchers at the University of Michigan- School for Environment and Sustainability provides some important insights into the total cost of ownership (TCO) of electric and gas vehicles.ย The authors, Maxwell Woody, Shawn Adderly, Rushabh Bohra, and Gregory Keoleian, take into account a variety of cost inputs such as purchase price, financing, taxes, fees, insurance, refueling, maintenance, repair, and home charging equipment for EVs as well as other parameters such as vehicle miles traveled, discount rate, and age of the vehicle.ย They develop a comprehensive TCO model comparing across five vehicle classes, three powertrains, and three EV ranges. Using 14 cities in the United States and multiple charging scenarios, they investigate TCO variability based on location and use pattern.ย They include adjustments for local gasoline prices, electricity rate plans, home charging access, and the impact of local temperatures and drive cycles on fuel economy, among other factors.ย See the overview of the results at https://lnkd.in/d9iMtpuW and the report itself at https://lnkd.in/dZtQZV3S.
๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ ๐๐ญ๐๐ญ๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ง๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฌ-๐๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐๐ ๐๐๐ก๐ข๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐
As part of our EV Evolutions research program, we provide updates on major announcements and technology innovations taking place in China, the US, and the EU.ย In November, Motor1.com reported that New Jersey joined eight other states requiring manufacturers to sell only zero-emissions vehicles in the state by 2035.ย Similar to other states, New Jersey will require a phase-in goal starting in 2027, where 42 percent of new vehicles need to have zero emissions.ย Similar to some EU countries, New Jersey is increasing the emissions requirements for gas-powered vehicles to incentivize manufacturers to bring more diverse EV models into the fleet.ย Many companies are targeting 2027 as a year when many new EV models across many segments will be available.ย It will be interesting to see if these new models and the Inflation Reduction Act subsidies will be enough to bring more new vehicle buyers into the EV fold.ย The New Jersey law does not force buyers to buy EVs, and it does not affect used vehicle sales.ย One source mentioned that it does not preclude people from buying gas vehicles from another state and bringing them into the state, though there may be issues with registering them in New Jersey.ย This is one of the challenges of allowing individual states to enact laws that affect only their citizens.
Read more: https://lnkd.in/gD_FXHfi
๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ฑ, ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ ๐๐๐ก๐ข๐๐ฅ๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ก๐จ๐ข๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐
In this article, https://lnkd.in/geSqfbm7, from The New York Times, Stephen Porder, professor and the associate provost for sustainability at Brown University, discusses why EVs really are the best choice for the climate.ย He explains the long term positive effects of the Inflation Reduction Act on EV pricing and infrastructure; the major improvements in battery technology that have already occurred and will continue to increase; the amount of emissions from EV manufacturing, charging, and usage that are still less than gas vehicles; mining EV materials that are changing through continued EV battery development; and the false equivalence of plug-in-hybrids.ย Heโs touching most of the EV bases, though without a lot of supporting evidence because of space restrictions.ย But his optimism has some basis in fact.ย Only time will tell how truly effective EVs will be in reducing global CO2 emissions, but time is also a barrier when it comes to managing climate change.
๐๐ผ๐ปโ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ด๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐๐ฑ๐ฑ ๐๐ป๐ป๐๐ฎ๐น ๐ฅ๐ผ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ง๐ผ๐๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ผ๐๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ข๐๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ฝ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ฉ๐
Itโs not like EV buyers donโt already have a number of major differences to overcome compared to gas vehicles such as battery range, cold weather battery degradation, finding chargers, charging time, battery safety, uncertain resale value, potential higher insurance costs, and especially higher vehicle costs.ย EV owners must now add a road tax charge to their annual vehicle registration. New Jersey recently enacted a new law that charges the most of all states for road taxes that are paid by EVs when registered annually ($250) - https://lnkd.in/ezJJVM5u.ย New Jersey isnโt the only state requiring EVs to pay a share of road taxes, 20 other states charge $50-$200 for EV road taxes (https://lnkd.in/eHMykYFN).ย Gas vehiclesโ road tax is built into the cost of every gallon of gas purchased at a gas station, but it is more of a user tax because one pays more if one drives more and uses more fuel; whereas, the EV road tax is the same if one drives 10K or 100K per year.ย We assume that this issue, like many new #EV issues, may change over time as states better estimate how much EVs should pay.ย But in the meantime, the EV road tax is another part of the EV total cost of ownership that buyers must be aware of when purchasing an EV.ย
๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฅ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ฒ ๐ ๐จ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ก๐๐ข๐ง ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ
At our EV Challenges and Opportunities conference in April, Brandon Boyle from Roland Berger provided some great insight into plans by manufacturers to not only measure and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions (Scope 1 and 2), but also those of their supply chains (Scope 3).ย Suppliers are also working on their supply chains so that eventually the entire supply chain will be managing their emissions similar to the way companies working with Japanese manufacturers are expected to continually improve their processes and find cost reductions.ย One of the tools used by companies to examine their emissions and those of their supply chains is the Science-Based Target Initiative (SBTi).ย This global tool provides a framework and methodology for companies to set science-based targets that are in line with the level of decarbonization required to prevent the worst impacts of climate change. The initiative provides guidance on target-setting for different sectors and scopes of emissions, as well as verification and approval of companies' targets.ย Weโll be discussing these targets in our future conferences and research as the industry prepares for sustainability.
๐๐ง ๐๐๐ ๐๐ข๐๐ ๐๐ฒ๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ, ๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ ๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ฌ
During our recent EV Challenges and Opportunities conference, Gregory Keoleian, Professor and Director of the University of Michiganโs Center for Sustainable Systems, showed this graphic that describes the results of his life cycle analysis of greenhouse gas emissions on all counties in the US comparing pure electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, and internal combustion vehicles as well as comparing sedans, SUVs, and pickup trucks. This analysis includes only modest improvements in current grid decarbonization.ย BEVs outperform hybrids and ICE vehicles in nearly all counties in the US.ย ย
๐๐ข๐๐ ๐๐ฒ๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ซ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐จ๐ฆ๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐๐๐ฌ
Gregory Keoleian, professor at the University of Michigan, presented at our recent EV Challenges and Opportunities conference about his use of life cycle analysis (LCA) in analyzing auto industry sustainability over the last 25 years.ย He presented this simplified slide that shows the different inputs into an LCA.ย As he noted in his presentation, the details involved in an LCA for just one component or a whole vehicle can be numerous.ย This complexity will challenge the manufacturers and their suppliers when gathering supply chain sustainability information across their supply chains.ย In fact, in our recent survey of industry experts, they reported that measuring sustainability in automotive supply chains will be a difficult process for companies.
๐๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐๐๐ฐ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ง๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฌ
Brandon Boyle, Senior Partner at Roland Berger Consulting, spoke at our recent EV Challenges and Opportunities conference about the challenges the global auto industry faces in the near future as it transitions to EVs.ย These include labor costs, uncertain demand and supply predictability, and general increased transportation costs.ย All of these will challenge OEMs and suppliers to meet their cost targets in a very changed world from the pre-Covid era.ย Many of these challenges could not only affect the profitability but the survival of companies over the next ten years.
๐๐ ๐๐ข๐๐ค๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฆ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐๐๐๐ฒ๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ
Gregory Keoleian, Professor and Director of the University of Michiganโs Center for Sustainable Systems, presented some great research results about greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the US auto industry at our recent EV Challenges and Opportunities conference.ย Weโll be focusing on a few of them in future posts, but this key findings slide from his groupโs recent research on the effects of pickup truck electrification on GHG emissions shows some dramatic effects based on the cradle to grave lifecycle analysis of the pickup truck.ย The time factor becomes the most important effect as it overwhelms the short term high levels of GHG emissions caused by battery production.ย ย
๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ ๐ ๐ฅ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ง๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐
Christopher Harto, Senior Analyst from Consumer Reports provided some very interesting insights into the future purchases of EVs based on their recent research on a random sample of 8,000 US households.ย With the goal of turning over the entire US fleet instead of focusing only on annual sales, this graph shows how the four levels of potential buyers, based on their knowledge of EVs, map to the typical S-curve of new technology adoption for the entire US fleet.ย It predicts a slow turnover of the US fleet in the 2020s and 2030s, but by 2045, nearly 90 percent of the entire 250+ million vehicle fleet in the US can be turned over.ย This mirrors research we performed on the fleet turnover of alternative fueled vehicles nearly 10 years ago.ย Until you get to 100 percent sales of EVs per year, the goal of turning over the fleet is elusive because every new vehicle stays in use for 12-15 years before it is scrapped.ย ย
๐๐ง๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐๐ก๐ข๐ ๐๐ง ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ก ๐๐ก๐จ๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ก๐ข๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐จ๐ญ๐๐ฅ ๐๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ง๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐ก๐ข๐ฉ ๐๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ, Link to Article & Link to Article
๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ ๐๐ญ๐๐ญ๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ง๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฌ-๐๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐๐ ๐๐๐ก๐ข๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐, Link to Article
๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ค๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฑ๐ญ ๐๐ข๐ ๐๐ญ๐๐ฉ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ : ๐๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ง๐๐ฐ๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฒ, Link to Article
๐๐จ๐ฐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐ ,ย
๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐๐ง๐, Link to Article
๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐ง๐ฎ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐ญ ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ก๐๐ข๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ
In our recent EV Challenges and Opportunities survey, our group of industry experts reported that manufacturers will be challenged to meet both their new supply chain goals, based on government incentives, and sustainability goals, based on government and ESG goals.ย These results are not surprising if one considers that automotive supply chains go down at least 3 tiers of suppliers and are global in nature.ย When it comes to sustainability, manufacturers must measure their whole supply chain effects as well as their own sustainability.ย One important support mechanism for manufacturers is that suppliers must also measure their own environmental effects and their own supply chain.ย In time, this will be manageable, but over the next ten years experts think it will be difficult.ย These changes in the supply chain are a sea change from previous globalized supply chains, especially for technologies that have dual defense and commercial applications (radar, lidar, semiconductors, new materials).ย We think this is the biggest supply chain transformation since manufacturers spun off their internal suppliers in the 1990s.ย Weโll be spending one or two conferences next year finding out manufacturer and supplier supply chain strategies and how far along they are in their process.
๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐ง๐ฎ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐๐ค๐ ๐๐ข๐ฆ๐
Our automotive experts who are part of our recent EV Challenges and Opportunities Survey report that it will take about 6-10 years for traditional manufacturers to be profitable selling EVs.ย This response is, at the same time, good news and bad news.ย The good news is that 6-10 years is not a very long time in automotive manufacturersโ thinking.ย The bad news is that it will take that long for the traditional manufacturers to transition to EVs.ย It shouldnโt be a surprise to us, since our same experts predict only 27 percent market share for all EVs combined by 2030.ย Could they be wrong?ย Yes.ย But they are probably not wrong on EV profitability.ย Companies continue to struggle to setup their EV supply chains for materials, processing, and production of batteries.ย The US government is supporting the transition through massive funding programs that we are finding out will be the most needed piece of the EV puzzle in order to jump start mining, processing, producing, charging and recycling batteries and EVs.ย US consumers are, in general, not breaking down the doors of dealerships to buy the current EVs, but we are in a race against the climate that doesnโt care whether you speed up or slow down.ย It will react to the amount of CO2 put into the atmosphere over time and respond accordingly.ย ย
๐๐๐ฌ๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฑ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ก๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฑ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ
Our recent EV Challenges and Opportunity Survey examined Teslaโs challenges and advantages over the next 10 years.ย Our panel of auto experts see competition from other manufacturers (external) and the need for more and newer models in their fleet (internal) as the two major challenges, followed by new battery technologies and raw materials (internal/external); and improved vehicle quality (internal). ย The other four challenges were all internal challenges:ย expanding their charging network, increasing scale production, managing service, warranty, and used vehicles; and finally, surviving the actions of their CEO.ย Our Affiliates are receiving our complete report based on the survey this week.ย Weโll be posting selected results over the next couple of months.
๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐ฏ๐ ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐ฌ
Our recent EV Challenges and Opportunity survey asked industry experts what are the top five aspects consumers desire in an EV.ย The top five aspects, shown in the attached slide, are range, price, time to charge, battery life, and vehicle segment.ย Three of the top 4 are battery related and numbers two and five focus on the price and type of vehicles available.ย Though we are at the beginning of the transition to EVs, one cannot emphasize enough how important batteries will be to the future of EVs.ย If we can get this right, the whole transition will be manageable and profitable.ย Weโll be discussing the future of batteries at our upcoming 15th annual Propulsion Strategies for the 21st Century hybrid conference at the University of Michigan on July 18th.
๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐๐ญ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐๐ก๐๐ง ๐๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐
Though the Biden administration would like to see 50 percent of new vehicle sales be EVs by 2030, our recent survey of industry experts for our recent EV Challenges and Opportunities conference predict that only 27 percent of new vehicle sales will be EVs by 2030 and that by 2035 only 42 percent will be EVs.ย Of course, our experts may be wrong, but their estimates provide insight into industry thinking at the moment.ย The traditional manufacturers are struggling to make the transition to EVs because of the significant profits they receive from selling ICE vehicles.ย Theyโve mastered this process, and now they must master another very different process profitably.ย It is no easy task, and some of the company names you recognize today may not be here in 15 years.ย ย
๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ฐ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ซ๐ข๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐จ ๐๐จ
This map created by Reuters shows the major highway corridors in the US that are targeted for infrastructure spending on EV charging stations.ย The dark green lines show corridors that have sufficient numbers of chargers, while the light green lines (that make up most of the map) are corridors that are pending.ย These corridors are main commuter and cross-country routes for longer distance driving.ย They do not include home charging that represents the most chargers now as well as in the future that will be used for many local and commuting EVs.ย That being said, the dark green corridors are โsufficientโ based on todayโs volume of EVs, but they will not be sufficient for a mass transition to EVs where there will need to be many more chargers if not more charging stations to accommodate the longer times it takes to charge vehicles. ย Weโll be discussing this topic at our upcoming EV Challenges and Opportunities conference on April 10th.