Our EV Evolutions project tracks EV issues across the EU, US, and China.  These graphs show the continued growth of EV/PHEV sales in selected EU countries.  This is a good sign for the EV industry.  One thing we worry about is the availability of the minerals for batteries if there is a huge jump in growth globally.  The US and the EU are just beginning their exploration of local minerals for batteries while China locked up their sourcing and processing many years ago.  This has provided China with a strong leg up in the current market, but as the other countries ramp up their mining and processing of minerals for batteries, China’s dominance will be challenged.  The question will be when will this happen.  Many analysts predict it will take a decade to get things moving, and the Inflation Reduction Act is supporting this development in a big way with billions of dollars of support.  It took about a decade for China to develop their supply chains, so we will keep an eye on these developments.  What is somewhat different for the US and the EU is the strong recycling component of the battery value chain that is developing along with mining and processing.  Both regions have long histories of recycling and many of the new battery recycling players have already proven their ability to recycle nearly 90 percent of the battery.  This could lead to less need for new mining in the long term, but we shall see.

As part of our continuing EV Evolutions Research Program, we provide up to date information about EVs in China, the US, and the EU.  These slides show the growth of LFP batteries over NMC batteries in China.  It was only four years ago that NMC batteries dominated passenger vehicle EVs in China.  In the span of four years EV battery strategy flipped.  Though NMC batteries provided more power and range than LFP batteries, LFPs are less prone to fires, perform at higher temperatures without degradation, have a longer life cycle, accept fast-charging better than NMCs, use fewer expensive materials such as cobalt and nickel, and use a less expensive and less complex thermal management systems.  This will not be the only transition we will see in batteries over the next 10 years, but it is the most significant adjustment made by manufacturers trying to control their material costs and supply.