Maricopa County, Arizona, home of Phoenix, holds a lot of #1 spots these days. It received the highest number of domestic migrants from 2016 to 2021, and had the highest population growth of any county between 2021 and 2022 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2022). Yet it is a city in a desert, and is already feeling many of the effects of climate change, from heat waves to water shortages.
The Phoenix metropolitan statistical area (MSA) has grown steadily over the past decade, reaching 4,652,000 in 2022 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2022). While many major metropolitan areas owe their growth to immigration, much of Phoenix's growth has come from domestic migration, with Maricopa County receiving almost 190,000 net domestic migrants from out of state between 2016 and 2020.
Although many Phoenix boosters tout the city's warm climate as an attraction, as temperatures rise problems surrounding heat and access to water grow. Already the city has seen heat-related deaths increase by 70% over three years, and an entire subdivision has been left without water for the first half of 2023 (Healy, 2023). Access to water has been a difficult issue for Phoenicians since the early days of the city's development, but an increased South West population depending on limited and shrinking sources will exacerbate this issue (Shermer, 2013).
Prior to the World Wars, Arizona's economy was dominated by "four c's": copper, cattle, cotton, and climate (Shermer, 2013). Phoenix, the state capitol, remained an outpost town, with its popuation at just 45,000 in 1940. Due to the extractive nature of the state's major industries, some argue that Arizona was essentially a "colony" of northeastern states in the beginning of the 20th century.
During this time, Phoenix's political economy was dominated by a group of individuals that scholar Elizabeth Tandy Shermer refers to as "grasstops". Sitting in between the city's working/middle class populations and elite investors living in northeastern states, the grasstops were staunchly opposed to New Deal liberalism. This group of "small-town gentry" - the most famous of which was senator, presidential candidate, and "cowboy conservative" Barry Goldwater - formed the Phoenix Chamber of Commerce. The grasstops fought against social welfare, corporate regulations and taxes, and unions in order to create "a good business climate" that would promote hypergrowth. These policies successfully attracted industries, including defense manufacturing, electronics, aerospace, and computers. From 1939 to 1959, the Phoenix metro area's industrial employment jumped by 466%.
Population growth followed job growth. Despite popular belief that population growth in Sun Belt cities such as Phoenix resulted from the advent of air conditioning, economic pulls were much larger; in fact only only one-third of Arizona households had air conditioning in 1970. Historically, Phoenix's population attraction focused on specific populations, namely educated Anglos who would buy single family homes and fill white-collar positions (2013). Interestingly, we see attraction of this population continue into the 21st century, with the largest groups of people moving to Maricopa County from a different states being white, high-income, and working age, as shown by the graphs below (U.S. Census Bureau, 2021).