Though Chicago will not be completely immune to the effects of climate change, compared to other major metropolises in the U.S. it is predicted to be relatively livable. Longer growing seasons in the midwest will lead to increases in crop yields and gross domestic product, while access to Lake Michigan will provide freshwater access (Lustgarten et. al, 2020).

With that being said, Chicago has a long way to go before becoming a "climate haven." It is predicted that Great Lakes water levels will fall and rise with greater variance and frequency as the climate continues to change (Egan, 2017). This will cause issues such as flooding for all cities surrounding the Great Lakes, but the history of Chicago's infrastructure makes it especially vulnerable . Chicago was built atop a swamp, with sewers and roads built above ground level. Further, the Chicago River was reversed to prevent sewage from running into Lake Michigan's drinking water. Maintaining a balance of water levels has long been precarious for the city; and this will only worsen with climate change. Chicago must reassess its infrastructure to prepare for this change. 

A History: Why Are People Leaving? 

While at first glance population loss in Chicago seems in line with historic Rust Belt to Sun Belt migration patterns, a further examination of how the city’s population change differs by race and social class tells a more nuanced story. The three major racial groups in Chicago have had different historic population trajectories, with the white population peaking in the 1950’s, the Black population peaking in the 1980’s, and the Latinx population doubling since the 1980’s (Scarborough et. al, 2022).

Today, people leaving the Chicago area are more likely to be white or Black than Latinx (2022). Additionally, they are more likely to have lower levels of education and to work in service or blue-collar occupations. From 1990 to 2020, population loss took place on the South and West sides; the Downtown, North, and Southwest sides, which are home to higher income populations, have experienced population gains. Further, incoming domestic migrants were more likely to be college educated and work a white-collar jobs. All of this suggests that increased cost of living and the relative decrease in working-class jobs compared to white-collar jobs are major drivers of population loss in Chicago.