Embedded Files
Touted as Climate Haven
Touted as Climate Haven
Sitting on the shores of Lake Superior, Duluth is a port city in St. Louis County, Minnesota. In the 1960's and 1980's, Duluth lost population at such staggering rates that a billboard once read "will the last one leaving Duluth please turn out the light" (Kamin, 2023). However, its cool temperatures and freshwater access lead to predictions that it could be a "climate haven" by the latter part of the 21st century.
A History: "Climate-Proof Duluth"
A History: "Climate-Proof Duluth"
In the late 2010's, a Harvard research team led by real estate and climate expert Jesse Keenan launched the "Duluth Climigration Project" (Keenan, 2019). This project identified Duluth as an ideal location for "climigration" due not only to its weather but also to its affordable housing, access to healthcare and education, and resilient industries. It explored everything from demography and marketing to infrastructure and design, and posed the possibility of climate migration ("climigration") prompted by consumer preference and economic mobility as opposed to forced displacement.
Let's Look at the Data: Moving + Climate Risk
Let's Look at the Data: Moving + Climate Risk
Like many midwestern cities, St. Louis County, home of Duluth, saw a significant decrease in population during the latter half of the 20th century (U.S. Census Bureau, 2021). Though its population plateaued in the 2000s, it continues to lose domestic migrants — including a net loss of 1754 residents moving between states.
Yet its climate future looks relatively positive. While most U.S. counties will experience heat waves, St. Louis County's highest summer temperatures will be in the mid-80's (Keenan, 2019). Access to the Great Lakes will supply it with freshwater access - something that many states are already struggling with. As a result of these conditions, it is predicted that St. Louis County's gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 3% by the end of the century (Lustgarten et. al, 2020).
Issues with Duluth Climigration
Issues with Duluth Climigration
Despite St. Louis County's net domestic migration loss, the "Duluth Climigration" project appeared to have some degree of success, with real estate agents reporting an influx of out-of-state buyers purchasing properties for both primary residency and investment (Kamin, 2023). Between December 2021 and December 2022, home prices in Duluth went up by 9%. A local real estate firm reported that 22% of sales were all cash.
This rise in home prices is affecting affordable housing for residents. Duluth mayor Emily Larson originally showed support for the climigration plan (Keenan , 2019). Recently, however, she expressed hesitation around it, emphasizing the need to care for current residents in terms of housing and climate resiliency. A long-time resident expressed fear of her children being priced out of the city: “I’m glad that people find value in Duluth. It’s a beautiful place. But I still long for the days when housing prices were reasonable." (Kamin, 2023)
It is also worth noting that Duluth will not be immune to the effects of climate change. Under high emission scenarios, St. Louis County is predicted to experience a very large wildfire every three years (Lustgarten et. al, 2020). The area is already feeling some of the effects of wildfires: smoke from wildfires in Canada in 2020 made air quality so bad that Duluth residents were advised to not go outside (Kamin, 2023).
Page updated
Report abuse