Uncertainty in Our Scenario

Using the chaos theory, we covered the potential roadblocks of prediction: uncertainty of weather and climate prediction. Uncertainty in climate-change projections are specifically distinguished from that of weather forecasting or seasonal prediction. Traditionally, multi-model ensembles were used for climate-change projections. 2009 UK Climate Projection was the first probabilistic approach that changed the recognition of uncertainty into probability. This was actually an important moment since now researchers could assess the level of risk based on a more reasonable scenario.

It shows that the uncertainty from internal variability can be reduced in a short term if we could initialize the model with the current state of the climate system. However, we as an analyst will still need to acknowledge that in nature, there will always be variability no matter how minor the model uncertainty was.