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In this sector, we will estimate the physical risks of climate change over the next decades under the scenario of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analyze the different characteristics of such risks and assess the actual case study through visual infographics from the Mckinsey Global Institute.
In this sector, we will estimate the physical risks of climate change over the next decades under the scenario of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analyze the different characteristics of such risks and assess the actual case study through visual infographics from the Mckinsey Global Institute.
What Are RCPs?
What Are RCPs?
Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs) is a method of building sets of scenarios-- with its economic, social, and physical changes-- based on the concentrations of greenhouse gases in 2100.
Achieved by 2100, an impact of RCP is scaled into four ranges of temperature change (watts per square metre) . RCP 2.6 is a scenario of which a CO2 emission level is strongly regulated and will generate only 1.6 °C rise in temperature.;Nonetheless, this case is not achievable at this point. Then, from RCP 4.5 to 6.0, implementation rate of decarbonization policy gets gradually lowered. Finally, at RCP 8.5, greenhouse gases grows without any mitigation.
Why RCP 8.5?
Why RCP 8.5?
Among different levels of RCPs, our scenario focuses on the highest carbon dioxide concentration of RCP 8.5, where none of the responsive actions take place; so called Business As Usual(BAU). By taking this scenario, we can come up with a relatively independent assumption "under the absence of further decarbonization."
Difference from
Difference from
Previous Scenario Model: SRES
Previous Scenario Model: SRES
Prior to RCP, one of the most famous prediction models was SRES(Special Report Emissions Scenarios). While RCP scenarios lists the number of levels in change of radiative forcing, SRES lists different families-- A1, A2, B1, and B2. The critical weakness of this model was lack of policies reflecting the cimate mitigation; RCP first started to complement this limitation. As a result, RCP 2.6 records lower than any of the SRES scenario elements since RCP uses the hypothetical conditions of adopting policies to achieve net zero by 2100, whereas SRES do not.
Characteristics of Physical Climate Risks
Characteristics of Physical Climate Risks
Increasing: physical climate risk is expected to be greater over time-- first by 2030, then further by 2050.
Non-stationary: Once the climate change occurs, it has been non-stoppable, or non-stationary. Climate scientists addresses that zero net emissions of carbon dioxide is the only solution for suppressing the further growth of climate risks. Yet, even after zero emission is attained, some effects of global warming may still remain due to the thermal inertia of the Earth system.
Systemic: Along with interconnectivity within global community, direct impacts of climate change in local level has a knock-on effect across regions and sectors-- over the countries or continents. This cascading effects may take place at economic , social, cultural, ecological, and political levels.
Infographic Data as a Reference
Infographic Data as a Reference
This image from the Mckinsey Global Institute shows the Heat stress level by 2050 from nine different types of case studies.
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