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Weather forecasting through the ages
Early civilizations used recurring astronomical and meteorological occurrences to help them track seasonal variations in the weather, which led to the development of weather forecasting.
The Babylonians attempted to forecast short-term weather changes based on the sight of clouds and optical phenomena like haloes around 650 B.C. 300 years later, Chinese astronomers devised a calendar that split the year into 24 festivals. Each of them corresponded to a distinct sort of weather.
Throughout the centuries, attempts have been made to produce forecasts based on weather lore and personal observations. By the end of the Renaissance, it had become clear that natural philosophers' ideas were inadequate and that more information was required to advance our understanding of the atmosphere.
- Radiosonde data was used to create a schematic sounding of air temperature and dewpoint
In the mid-nineteenth century, the introduction of the telegraph and the emergence of telegraph networks enabled the routine transmission of meteorological observations to and from observers and compilers. This data allowed for the creation of primitive weather maps and the identification and study of surface wind patterns and storm systems.
With the advent of the radiosonde in the 1920s, a huge step forward was taken in weather monitoring at high altitudes. The data is analyzed and made accessible for creating weather maps or including in weather forecast computer models. Today, every 12 hours, radiosondes are launched from hundreds of ground stations throughout the world.
- The North American network of upper air ground stations. Radiosondes are launched and tracked from each location every twelve hours
Past Scientists Explained Prediction Methods
Climate scientists first began to use computers to predict future global temperatures in the early 1970s. That's when newfound computing power coincided with a growing realization that rising carbon dioxide levels could boost global temperatures.
llumination of phenomena that have had significant effects on climate change in the past
Model simulations and attribution results suggest that aerosols have played a key role in shaping regional climate over the 20th century and before. It has been argued that small aerosol perturbations in early industrial time may have caused substantial impacts in a less polluted atmosphere.
Earth’s temperature has risen by 0.14° F (0.08° C) per decade since 1880, and the rate of warming over the past 40 years is more than twice that: 0.32° F (0.18° C) per decade since 1981.
Yearly surface temperature compared to the 20th-century average from 1880–2020. Blue bars indicate cooler-than-average years; red bars show warmer-than-average years. NOAA Climate.gov graph, based on data from the National Centers for Environmental Information.
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