Post date: Dec 17, 2012 5:22:44 AM
"Estimating A Dynamic Model of Sex Selection in China" by Avraham Ebenstein
This is the second paper talking about sex ratio in China after the introducing of OCP (One Child Policy). This paper proposes an interesting theory that the tougher the punishment the stronger the sex selection on babies. Due to the technology improvement, the unborn baby's sex can be tested by Sonagraphy (Ultrasonography). Although inhuman, some Chinese families do choose abortion to avoid having unwanted baby girls. In China, taking abortion might be even easier than pulling out wisdom teeth. Many economic papers, including this one, tries to rationalize Chinese families' desire of having a boy by posing different option values of having girls and boys. In my opinion, the fondness for boys is probably just the unique Chinese preference for gender.
Back to the model, this paper models mothers' dynamic choices of choosing revealing baby's sex or not and use backward induction to solve it. Assume the baby's sex can be revealed with a cost, this cost is independent and might be lower then the punishment of violating OCP. The expected value of natural delivery is decreasing with a higher punishment, and then the mother is more likely to choose sex selection. The other underline assumption is that a boy's option value is much higher than a girl's, which is then proved by the data. The estimation results can be used to further study two policy related questions. First, if the government relaxes the number of children to two, three, or even more, would it make the sex ratio more balances? Second, if the punishment of violating OCP, would it decrease the possibility of sex selection?