I have been collecting data from the WBC Tournament Games over the last 4 years I have been GMing, I think this is now a large enough sample size to do some analysis. While I have separated out the data for the Final and Semis, their sample size is still a bit too small to base much on, so I am mostly using the Overall figures.
5 Player Game Results:
These are the result of all 5 player games, 4s and 3s are not included, on the left all of them, on the right the Semis and Finals
On first glance this would appear to tell us very little that is not received wisdom:
The French win a lot, the Austrians lose a lot
However, things become more interesting if you track this on the Laurels one would earn for each power
Win = 5, 2nd = 4, 3rd =3, 4th = 2, 5th =1
Expected Laurels Return
The most immediate thing to note here is that Prussia ends up really good, 2nd best choice to pick in the Semis and Finals and actually overall the highest scoring
However the most important thing to note is that the scores for 4 of the powers end up very close together:
230,220,217,208 and 65,60,58,55
Austria is clearly disfavoured as the outlier, but everyone else is quite close together
France, whilst winning a lot, also comes last a lot. This makes sense because anyone else’s gains are usually made at France’s expense and if she is not on top, then she is probably hurting
Prussia benefits from winning tie breaks and as such scores strongly with the most 2nd and 3rd places
Britain is 2nd in wins and also does fairly well in 2nd to 4th
Russia also benefits from her position in the tiebreak to get good results.
However whilst this might be interesting for casual play, some sort of points League and perhaps a guide to what side to pick in the final it doesn’t provide too many useful conclusions about the Heats and Semis, where what matter are wins and to a lesser extent 2nd place
Wins and 2nds:
Here are the scores based on: Wins x 2, Second = 1
From this I am deriving the Bid Point ratio of this year’s tournament:
Divide by 10, subtract 4 and swap + and -
Under this Britain maybe not quite good enough to be worth -1 and Prussia slightly too good to be 0
However we shall review how this works this year and we will have another year’s worth of data for fine-tuning the system if it works
Picking Analysis:
Below is what people have picked when they have had the choice in the 5 player semis and finals
The next table translates that into the expected Laurels Return under the same 5/4/3/2/1 break down used on page 2
Under this Britain is the most popular pick, narrowly edging out France though being the most common second pick. Russia has never been picked 1st choice, but is more popular as a second pick than Prussia is as 1st 2nd and 3rd combined
The last table gives the actual results from those games in the same format
The final column compares the implied Laurels people expected to get from each power from their bids, with what that power actually got, if above100% that power out performed expectations, if below 100% it under performed
France didn’t perform as well as expected, but as your chances of victory are better with France than any other power it makes sense for them to be a popular pick
Similarly Austria did manage some results, but as the worst performing power it makes sense for them to be unpopular
Britain however appears to be far more popular than her performance merits. She has been 1st or 2nd pick in 16 games out of 18, but has only scored 3 of each
Prussia has almost as many wins as Britain, and many more 2nds but this isn’t reflected in her popularity.
The conclusion to draw here I think is that Britain is over-rated by players and Prussia severely underestimated.