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Tsutomu Watanabe

Professor of Economics, University of Tokyo
Founder & Technical Advisor, Nowcast Co., Ltd.

E-mail: watanabe@e.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Phone: 81-3-5841-5524 & 5595 (secretary) Fax: 81-3-5841-5521
Office: 1407 Economics Research Building  map

Daily Inflation Data and Daily Sales Data from the UTokyo Price Project
                 
  My recent papers


"Novel and Topical Business News and Their Impacts on Stock Prices," (with T. Mizuno and T. Ohnishi) June 2015. 

Replicating Japan's CPI Using Scanner Data (with S. Imai) Paper presented at the Ottawa Group Meeting on May 20-22, 2015, Tokyo. CARF Working Paper Series, CARF-F-364, June 2015.

"Estimating Consumer Price Inflation by Household," (with J. Diamond, K. Watanabe) Paper presented at the Ottawa Group Meeting on May 20-22, 2015, Tokyo.

"Price Rigidity during Japan's Deflationary Period: Causes and Consequences," (with K. Watanabe) April 2015.

Structure of Global Buyer-Supplier Networks and Its Implications for Conflict Minerals Regulations (with T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi) CARF Working Paper Series, CARF-F-362, May 2015.

Estimating Quality Adjusted Commercial Property Price Indexes Using Japanese REIT Data (with C. Shimizu, W. E. Diewert, K. G. Nishimura) Forthcoming in Journal of Property Research.

"Firm Age Distributions and the Decay Rate of Firm Activities," (with A. Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto, T. Mizuno) Proceedings of the Joint International Conference on Social Modeling and Simulation & Econophysics Colloquium 2014.

The Economics of Interfirm Networks (edited with I. Uesugi, A. Ono) Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, Vol. 4, Springer, June 2015.

Buyer-Supplier Networks and Aggregate Volatility (with T. Mizuno, W. Souma)  in T. Watanabe, I. Uesugi, A. Ono, eds., The Economics of Interfirm Networks, Springer, June 2015.

Working Less and Bargain Hunting More: Macro Implications of Sales during Japan's Lost Decades (with K. Watanabe, K. Ueda, N. Sudo) CARF Working Paper Series, CARF-F-351, September 2014.

Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data (with Y. Saita, C. Shimizu) Forthcoming in International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis.

The Structure and Evolution of Buyer-Supplier Networks (with T. Mizuno, W. Souma) PLoS ONE 9(7): e100712. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0100712Published: July 07, 2014.

Beauty Contests and Fat Tails in Financial Markets (with M. Nirei) CARF Working Paper Series, CARF-F-346, June 2014.

"Private Label Brands versus National Brands: Some Implications for the Construction of the CPI" (with S. Imai). Paper presented at the Meeting of the Group of Experts on Consumer Price Indices, 26–28 May 2014, Palais des Nations, Geneva.

"Residential Property Price Indexes for Japan" (with C. Shimizu, W. E. Diewert, K. G. Nishimura) Paper presented at the OECD Workshop on House Price Statistics, March 24-25, 2014. UBC Discussion Paper Series 14-05, March 2014.

Estimating Daily Inflation Using Scanner Data: A Progress Report (with K. Watanabe) Paper presented at Japan Economic Seminar held on February 28, 2014 at CJEB, Columbia University.  CARF Working Paper Series, CARF-F-342, February 2014.

Analytical Derivation of Power Laws in Firm Size Variables from Gibrat's Law and Quasi-Inversion Symmetry: A Geomorphological Approach (with A. Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto, T. Mizuno) Journal of the Physical Society of Japan, Vol. 83, No. 3, 034802. Published online February 18, 2014.

Japan's Persistent Deflation and Monetary Policy: Editors' Overview. (with T. Ito, K. Iwata, C. McKenzie, S. Urata) Asian Economic Policy Review, Volume 9, Issue 1, 2014, 1–19.

Product Downsizing and Hidden Price Increases: Evidence from Japan's Deflationary Period (with S. Imai), Asian Economic Policy Review, Volume 9, Issue 1, 2014, 69-89.

How Much Do Official Price Indexes Tell Us about Inflation? (with J. Handbury, D. E. Weinstein) NBER Working Paper No.19504, October 2013.

A Stochastic Model for Order Book Dynamics in Online Product Markets (with T. Mizuno, M. Nirei) Evolutionary and Institutional Economic Review, VOL.10, NO.1, 2013, 93-105. Published 4 September 2013.

Why Are Product Prices in Online Markets Not Converging? (with T. Mizuno) PLoS ONE 8(8): e72211. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0072211. Published 28 August 2013.

Sticky Housing Rents and Monetary Policy: The Japanese Experience (with C. Shimizu) Presented at KDI Workshop on "Real Estate Driven Systemic Risk: Country Cases & Their Policy Implications," December 13-14, 2012, Seoul. Revised August 2013.

How Fast are Prices in Japan Falling? (with S. Imai, C. Shimizu) CARF Working Paper Series, CARF-F-298, October 2012. Revised 05 July 2013.

What's Required to Stop Deflation? Japan Spotlight, May/June 2013, Japan Economic Foundation, 30-35.

High Quality Topic Extraction from Business News Explains Abnormal Financial Market Volatility (with R. Hisano, D. Sornette, T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi) PLoS ONE 8(6): e64846. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0064846. Published 6 June 2013.

The Emergence of Different Tail Exponents in the Distributions of Firm Size Variables (with A. Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto, T. Mizuno) Physica A, Volume 392, Issue 9, 1 May 2013, 2104–2113.

Detecting Real Estate Bubbles: A New Approach Based on the Cross Sectional Dispersion of Property Prices (with T. Ohnishi, T. Mizuno, C. Shimizu) Paper presented at PKU-Fordham-JBF Conference on "Risk Management and Reform of Bank Regulation," April 22-23, 2013, Beijing.  CARF Working Paper Series, CARF-F-313, April 2013.

The Great Intervention and Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience 2003-2004 (with T. Yabu) Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 32, February 2013, 428-443.

A New Method for Identifying the Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions (with C. Chen, T. Yabu) Journal of Money, Credit and BankingVolume 44, Issue 8, December 2012, 1507-1533.

"Buyer-Supplier Networks and Aggregate Volatility: Evidence from Firm Level Data" (with T. Mizuno, W. Souma) Presented at International Workshop on Economics of Interfirm Networks, November 29-30, 2012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry.

Power Laws in Real Estate Prices during Bubble Periods (with T. Ohnishi, T. Mizuno, C. Shimizu) International Journal of Modern Physics: Conference Series, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2012, 61-81.

"Some Implications of Product Creation and Destruction for Japan's Deflation" (with K. Watanabe, K. Ueda) Paper presented at the Meeting of the Group of Experts on Consumer Price Indices, May 30 - June 1, 2012, Geneva.

Random Walk or A Run: Market Microstructure Analysis of Foreign Exchange Rate Movements Based on Conditional Probability (with Y. Hashimoto, T. Ito, T. Ohnishi, M. Takayasu, H. Takayasu) Quantitative Finance, Vol. 12, No. 6, June 2012, 893-905.

The Estimation of Owner Occupied Housing Indexes using the RPPI: The Case of Tokyo (with W. E. Diewert, C. Shimizu,  K. G. Nishimura). Paper presented at the Meeting of the Group of Experts on Consumer Price Indices, May 30 - June 1, 2012, Geneva.

"Biases in Appraisal Based Commercial Property Prices in Tokyo" (with C. Shimizu, K. G. Nishimura) Paper presented at the European Central Bank conference on "Commercial Property Price Indicators" May 10-11, 2012.

Optimal Monetary Policy at the Zero Interest Rate Bound: The Case of Endogenous Capital Formation (with T. Takamura, T. Kudo) Revised April 2012.

Temporal and Cross Correlations in Business News (with T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi, K. Takei) Progress of Theoretical Physics Supplement, No. 194, June 2012, 181-192.

House Prices from Magazines, Realtors, and the Land Registry (with C. Shimizu, K. G. Nishimura) in Property Markets and Financial Stability, BIS Papers No.64, Bank for International Settlements, March 2012, 29-38.

Power Laws in Firm Productivity (with T. Mizuno, A. Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto)  Progress of Theoretical Physics Supplement, No. 194, June 2012, 122-134.

On the Nonstationarity of the Exchange Rate Process (with T. Ohnishi, H. Takayasu, T. Ito, Y. Hashimoto, M. Takayasu)  International Review of Financial Analysis, Volume 23, June 2012, 30-34.

Fiscal Policy Switching in Japan, the US, and the UK (with A. Ito, T. Yabu)  Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Volume 25, Issue 4, December 2011, 380-413.

A New Method for Measuring Tail Exponents of Firm Size Distributions (with S. Fujimoto, A. Ishikawa, T. Mizuno)  Economics E-Journal, Vol. 5, 2011-20, December 7, 2011.

House Prices at Different Stages of the Buying/Selling Process (with C. Shimizu, K. G. Nishimura) Research Center for Price Dynamics Working Paper Series No. 69, February 2011.

Closely Competing Firms and Price Adjustment: Some Findings from an Online Marketplace  (with T. Mizuno, M. Nirei) Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Volume 112, Issue 4, December 2010, 673-696.

On the Evolution of the House Price Distribution (with T. Ohnishi, T. Mizuno, C. Shimizu) Research Center for Price Dynamics Working Paper Series No. 61, August 2010. Revised May 2011.