Tsutomu Watanabe
Professor of Economics, University of Tokyo
Founder & Technical Advisor, Nowcast Inc.

E-mail: watanabe@e.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Phone: 81-3-5841-5524 & 5595 (assistant) Fax: 81-3-5841-5521
Office: 1407 Economics Research Building  map

Daily Inflation Data and Daily Sales Data from the UTokyo Price Project
T-Point Price Index (TPI) delivered by Culture Convenience Club, Co., Ltd.

  My recent papers

Who Buys What and Where: Reconstruction of International Trade Flows by Commodity and Industry (with Y. Ikeda) CARF Working Paper Series, CARF-F-393, September 2016. Paper to be presented at COMPLEX NETWORKS 2016, The 5th International Workshop on Complex Networks and their Applications, November 30 - December 02, 2016, Milan, Italy.

The Gradual Evolution of Buyer-Seller Networks and Their Role in Aggregate Fluctuations (with R. Hisano, T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi, D. Sornette) CARF Working Paper Series, CARF-F-389, August 2016. 

The Formation of Consumer Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Japan's Deflation Experience (with J. Diamond, K. Watanabe) Presented at NBER Japan Project Meeting, August 1, 2016, ADBI, Tokyo. CARF Working Paper Series, CARF-F-388, July 2016.

Power Laws in Market Capitalization During the Dot-com and Shanghai Bubble Periods (with T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi) CARF Working Paper Series, CARF-F-392, September 2016. Forthcoming in Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review.

"Long-term Firm Growth Properties Derived From Short-term Laws of Sales and the Number of Employees," (with A. Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto, T. Mizuno) Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, forthcoming.

"Measuring Inflation By Company Using Scanner Data," (with T. Shoji, K. Watanabe) Paper presented at the Meeting of the Group of Experts on Consumer Price Indices, 2-4 May 2016, Palais des Nations, Geneva. 

"Estimating Consumer Price Inflation By Household," (with J. Diamond, K. Watanabe) Paper presented at the Meeting of the Group of Experts on Consumer Price Indices, 2-4 May 2016, Palais des Nations, Geneva. 

Community structure and dynamics of the industry sector-specific international-trade-network (with Y. Ikeda, H. Iyetomi, T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi) in Signal-Image Technology and Internet-Based Systems (SITIS), 2014, 456-461.

Econophysics Point of View of Trade Liberalization: Community dynamics, synchronization, and controllability as example of collective motions (with Y. Ikeda, H. Iyetomi, T. Ohnishi, H. Aoyama, T. Mizuno, Y. Sakamoto), RIETI Discussion Paper Series 16-E-026, 2016.

How Much Do Official Price Indexes Tell Us about Inflation? (with J. Handbury, D. E. Weinstein) NBER Working Paper No.19504, October 2013. Revised December 2015.

House Prices at Different Stages of the Buying/Selling Process (with C. Shimizu, K. G. Nishimura) Regional Science and Urban Economics, Volume 59, July 2016, Pages 37-53.

Structure of Global Buyer-Supplier Networks and Its Implications for Conflict Minerals Regulations (with T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi) EPJ Data Science, 5 1 (2016) 2 Published online: 16 January 2016 DOI: 10.1140/epjds/s13688-016-0063-7

Novel and Topical Business News and Their Impacts on Stock Market Activities (with T. Mizuno and T. Ohnishi) CARF Working Paper Series, CARF-F-366, July 2015.

Firm Growth and Extended Gibrat's Law (with A. Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto, T. Mizuno) Advances in Mathematical Physics, vol. 2016, Article ID 9303480, 6 pages, 2016. doi:10.1155/2016/9303480.. 

Firm Age Distributions and the Decay Rate of Firm Activities (with A. Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto, T. Mizuno) Proceedings of the International Conference on Social Modeling and Simulation, 2015, Springer, 187-194.

The Structure of Global Inter-firm Networks (with T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi) Social Informatics, 2015, Springer, 334-338.

Geographic Dependency of Population Distributions (with S. Fujimoto, T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi, C. Shimizu) Proceedings of the International Conference on Social Modeling and Simulation, 2015, Springer, 151-162.

"Relationship between Job Opportunities and Economic Environments: Evidence from Online Job Search Data," (with A. Sato, C. Shimizu, T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi) Procedia Computer Science, Volume 60, 2015, 1255-1262.

Relationship between Firm Age Distributions and the Decay Rate of Firm Activities in the United States and Japan (with A Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto, T Mizuno) Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Big Data, Santa Clara, CA, 2015, pp. 2726-2731. doi: 10.1109/BigData.2015.7364073

Are Firms that Are Awarded More Patents More Productive? (with S. Fujimoto, A. Ishikawa, T. Mizuno) In Abergel, F., Aoyama, H., Chakrabarti, B. K., Chakraborti, A., & Ghosh, A. (eds.) Econophysics and Data Driven Modelling of Market Dynamics, Springer, February 2015, 129-142.

Replicating Japan's CPI Using Scanner Data (with S. Imai) Paper presented at the Ottawa Group Meeting on May 20-22, 2015, Tokyo. CARF Working Paper Series, CARF-F-364, June 2015.

"Estimating Consumer Price Inflation by Household," (with J. Diamond, K. Watanabe) Paper presented at the Ottawa Group Meeting on May 20-22, 2015, Tokyo.

"Price Rigidity during Japan's Deflationary Period: Causes and Consequences," (with K. Watanabe) April 2015.

Estimating Quality Adjusted Commercial Property Price Indexes Using Japanese REIT Data (with C. Shimizu, W. E. Diewert, K. G. Nishimura) Journal of Property Research, Volume 32, Issue 3, 2015. Published online: 20 Jul 2015.

The Economics of Interfirm Networks (edited with I. Uesugi, A. Ono) Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, Vol. 4, Springer, June 2015.

Buyer-Supplier Networks and Aggregate Volatility (with T. Mizuno, W. Souma)  in T. Watanabe, I. Uesugi, A. Ono, eds., The Economics of Interfirm Networks, Springer, June 2015.

Working Less and Bargain Hunting More: Macro Implications of Sales during Japan's Lost Decades (with K. Watanabe, K. Ueda, N. Sudo) CARF Working Paper Series, CARF-F-351, September 2014. Revised August 2016.

Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data (with Y. Saita, C. Shimizu) International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Vol. 9 Issue 1, 2016, 66-87.

The Structure and Evolution of Buyer-Supplier Networks (with T. Mizuno, W. Souma) PLoS ONE 9(7): e100712. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0100712Published: July 07, 2014.

Beauty Contests and Fat Tails in Financial Markets (with M. Nirei) CARF Working Paper Series, CARF-F-346, June 2014.

"Private Label Brands versus National Brands: Some Implications for the Construction of the CPI" (with S. Imai). Paper presented at the Meeting of the Group of Experts on Consumer Price Indices, 26–28 May 2014, Palais des Nations, Geneva.

"Residential Property Price Indexes for Japan" (with C. Shimizu, W. E. Diewert, K. G. Nishimura) Paper presented at the OECD Workshop on House Price Statistics, March 24-25, 2014. UBC Discussion Paper Series 14-05, March 2014.

Estimating Daily Inflation Using Scanner Data: A Progress Report (with K. Watanabe) Paper presented at Japan Economic Seminar held on February 28, 2014 at CJEB, Columbia University.  CARF Working Paper Series, CARF-F-342, February 2014.

Analytical Derivation of Power Laws in Firm Size Variables from Gibrat's Law and Quasi-Inversion Symmetry: A Geomorphological Approach (with A. Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto, T. Mizuno) Journal of the Physical Society of Japan, Vol. 83, No. 3, 034802. Published online February 18, 2014.

Japan's Persistent Deflation and Monetary Policy: Editors' Overview. (with T. Ito, K. Iwata, C. McKenzie, S. Urata) Asian Economic Policy Review, Volume 9, Issue 1, 2014, 1–19.

Product Downsizing and Hidden Price Increases: Evidence from Japan's Deflationary Period (with S. Imai), Asian Economic Policy Review, Volume 9, Issue 1, 2014, 69-89.

A Stochastic Model for Order Book Dynamics in Online Product Markets (with T. Mizuno, M. Nirei) Evolutionary and Institutional Economic Review, VOL.10, NO.1, 2013, 93-105. Published 4 September 2013.

Why Are Product Prices in Online Markets Not Converging? (with T. Mizuno) PLoS ONE 8(8): e72211. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0072211. Published 28 August 2013.

Sticky Housing Rents and Monetary Policy: The Japanese Experience (with C. Shimizu) Presented at KDI Workshop on "Real Estate Driven Systemic Risk: Country Cases & Their Policy Implications," December 13-14, 2012, Seoul. Revised August 2013.

How Fast are Prices in Japan Falling? (with S. Imai, C. Shimizu) CARF Working Paper Series, CARF-F-298, October 2012. Revised 05 July 2013.

What's Required to Stop Deflation? Japan Spotlight, May/June 2013, Japan Economic Foundation, 30-35.

High Quality Topic Extraction from Business News Explains Abnormal Financial Market Volatility (with R. Hisano, D. Sornette, T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi) PLoS ONE 8(6): e64846. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0064846. Published 6 June 2013.

The Emergence of Different Tail Exponents in the Distributions of Firm Size Variables (with A. Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto, T. Mizuno) Physica A, Volume 392, Issue 9, 1 May 2013, 2104–2113.

Detecting Real Estate Bubbles: A New Approach Based on the Cross Sectional Dispersion of Property Prices (with T. Ohnishi, T. Mizuno, C. Shimizu) Paper presented at PKU-Fordham-JBF Conference on "Risk Management and Reform of Bank Regulation," April 22-23, 2013, Beijing.  CARF Working Paper Series, CARF-F-313, April 2013.

The Great Intervention and Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience 2003-2004 (with T. Yabu) Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 32, February 2013, 428-443.

A New Method for Identifying the Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions (with C. Chen, T. Yabu) Journal of Money, Credit and BankingVolume 44, Issue 8, December 2012, 1507-1533.

"Buyer-Supplier Networks and Aggregate Volatility: Evidence from Firm Level Data" (with T. Mizuno, W. Souma) Presented at International Workshop on Economics of Interfirm Networks, November 29-30, 2012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry.

Power Laws in Real Estate Prices during Bubble Periods (with T. Ohnishi, T. Mizuno, C. Shimizu) International Journal of Modern Physics: Conference Series, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2012, 61-81.

"Some Implications of Product Creation and Destruction for Japan's Deflation" (with K. Watanabe, K. Ueda) Paper presented at the Meeting of the Group of Experts on Consumer Price Indices, May 30 - June 1, 2012, Geneva.

Random Walk or A Run: Market Microstructure Analysis of Foreign Exchange Rate Movements Based on Conditional Probability (with Y. Hashimoto, T. Ito, T. Ohnishi, M. Takayasu, H. Takayasu) Quantitative Finance, Vol. 12, No. 6, June 2012, 893-905.

The Estimation of Owner Occupied Housing Indexes using the RPPI: The Case of Tokyo (with W. E. Diewert, C. Shimizu,  K. G. Nishimura). Paper presented at the Meeting of the Group of Experts on Consumer Price Indices, May 30 - June 1, 2012, Geneva.

"Biases in Appraisal Based Commercial Property Prices in Tokyo" (with C. Shimizu, K. G. Nishimura) Paper presented at the European Central Bank conference on "Commercial Property Price Indicators" May 10-11, 2012.

Optimal Monetary Policy at the Zero Interest Rate Bound: The Case of Endogenous Capital Formation (with T. Takamura, T. Kudo) Revised April 2012.

Temporal and Cross Correlations in Business News (with T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi, K. Takei) Progress of Theoretical Physics Supplement, No. 194, June 2012, 181-192.

House Prices from Magazines, Realtors, and the Land Registry (with C. Shimizu, K. G. Nishimura) in Property Markets and Financial Stability, BIS Papers No.64, Bank for International Settlements, March 2012, 29-38.

Power Laws in Firm Productivity (with T. Mizuno, A. Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto)  Progress of Theoretical Physics Supplement, No. 194, June 2012, 122-134.

On the Nonstationarity of the Exchange Rate Process (with T. Ohnishi, H. Takayasu, T. Ito, Y. Hashimoto, M. Takayasu)  International Review of Financial Analysis, Volume 23, June 2012, 30-34.

Fiscal Policy Switching in Japan, the US, and the UK (with A. Ito, T. Yabu)  Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Volume 25, Issue 4, December 2011, 380-413.

A New Method for Measuring Tail Exponents of Firm Size Distributions (with S. Fujimoto, A. Ishikawa, T. Mizuno)  Economics E-Journal, Vol. 5, 2011-20, December 7, 2011.

Closely Competing Firms and Price Adjustment: Some Findings from an Online Marketplace  (with T. Mizuno, M. Nirei) Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Volume 112, Issue 4, December 2010, 673-696.

On the Evolution of the House Price Distribution (with T. Ohnishi, T. Mizuno, C. Shimizu) Research Center for Price Dynamics Working Paper Series No. 61, August 2010. Revised May 2011.