23 Nov 2025
The Chagos Treaty Debate in Parliament
A Survey of Chagossian Views - by the House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee
Background
On 19 November 2025 the House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee (IRDC) published an online survey (Link to Survey) to gather views from the Chagossian community about how they view the UK’s Agreement with Mauritius concerning the Chagos Archipelago, including Diego Garcia.
The IRDC was invited by the UK Government and the main opposition party to gather views from Chagossians because a Bill implementing the Agreement is currently being debated in Parliament. Members of the House of Lords are keen to hear Chagossian perspectives on the Agreement before considering the Bill further.
The IRDC announcement recognises that “a short online survey has its limitations and cannot capture the full diversity of the Chagossian experience. However, we really want to hear what Chagossians think within the window we have been given for the survey. We must report on our findings by 18 December, in time for the next stage of the Bill. Because we need time to read and analyse the answers, we are asking for responses by 5pm (UK time) on 1 December.”
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Flawed, Open to Abuse, and Potentially Unrepresentative
Analysis
One must have considerable sympathy with the IRDC. They have had this foisted upon them together with an unrealistic timeframe, and it seems without due consideration of the difficulties involved. Nonetheless, it appears that the IRDC sought no independent advice from a Chagossian perspective as to the content of the survey or the manner in which it is to be conducted. As a result, there are a number of potential flaws and shortcomings which will be discussed below.
Time Period
The effective time period for the completion of the survey is barely more than one week. All responses are required by 5pm (UK time) on Monday 1 December 2025. This is likely to be unrealistic for some participants.
Literacy and IT Access
The survey must be completed online by an individual. There is no provision for submissions by letter, e-mail or other hard copy nor for a collective submission from any Chagossian Community Group such as the Chagos Refugees Group (CRG), Seychellois Chagossians Committee, or UK Groups.
The survey presumes that:
Respondents can read and write English, and whilst translations of the questions are also available in a separate document in French and Creole (This would need to be printed out for ease of use whilst using the online survey), the online form requires all answers to be given in English.
Respondents have ready access to a computer with internet connection whilst completing the survey which must be done in one sitting.
Literacy and the lack of IT access is known to be a particular problem for Mauritian Chagossians and may also present some difficulties for Seychellois Chagossians and others.
When the FCDO conducted a paper consultation with Chagossians in 2015 the British High Commissioner in Mauritius, who forwarded the completed forms to London, remarked: "Many of them appear to have been filled in by the same hand (a necessary reflection of poor literacy rates and an inability to read or write in English).”
Lack of provision for Community Input
Despite the literacy problems, the IRDC has not considered the possibility of collective input from Chagossian groups who may wish to hold public meetings to explain the survey to their members and collate their input for submission. This is a major oversight particularly for Mauritian Chagossian groups where important matters have been dealt with in this way in the past. Indeed, it is understood that the CRG have called a General Assembly Meeting on 29/30 November for this purpose.
The Survey Questions
The survey questions are reproduced in more detail below.
There are no direct questions such as "Do you support the Treaty?" but rather the survey seeks to gather views on:
Hopefully therefore respondents will not merely express support for, or rejection of the Treaty but only provide constructive input. Nonetheless the survey does not prevent responses which are polarised to express support or opposition to the Treaty. It must be hoped that responses are given in good faith and also with a reasonable grasp of the facts.
Unfortunately, UK Press coverage, actions of certain lobby groups, and members of both the House of Commons and the House of Lords have spread misinformation and pursued an anti-Mauritius agenda, with the intention of wrecking UK domestic legislation implementing the Treaty. As a result, the atmosphere surrounding the discussion of the Treaty whether in Parliament or in public has been hostile and toxic with the result that there has been much misleading information in the public domain.
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A recent flawed survey
An example of this is a survey which has been widely quoted during a recent debate in the House of Lords on 18 November, by Lord Callanan, Lord Hannan, Lord Lilley, Baroness Foster, and Baroness Hoey.
This survey appears to have been a collaboration of the Friends of the British Overseas Territories (FOTBOT) and Great British PAC. It claims 3,389 responses worldwide (said to be 34% of the global Chagossian diaspora) and gives highly improbable outcomes, including that 99.16% Chagossian respondents backed remaining British (Conservative Post article).
Those citing it should have been aware that the survey questions were so heavily loaded as to make the outcome utterly unreliable. For example:
Question 10: What do you want the outcome to be for the Chagos Archipelago?
Respondents were given only one of two options: (1) Self determination and Remain British, or (2) Sovereignty transfer to the Mauritian Government?
Thus, if the respondent wanted to be afforded a right to self-determination then he/she would have to also opt to remain British. Two entirely separate issues have been conflated to produce a contrived result.
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Biased Questions in the IRDC Survey
Furthermore some questions in the IRDC survey also show bias, perhaps inadvertently, which is not appropriate. For example, in examining whether individual Chagossians wish to resettle, an initial question is asked:
“How confident are you that Mauritius will support Chagossians to resettle on the outer islands?”
This is despite the fact that there is no evidence that Mauritius will not support resettlement, quite the contrary, the Mauritian Government has set aside funds for resettlement in its last 6 annual budgets and consistently said it will facilitate this in recent years. So why raise it, except to sow doubts in the minds of respondents. It is an entirely unnecessary precursor to the resettlement question which could have been neutrally phrased:
Given that Mauritius supports resettlement of Chagossians on the Outer Islands how likely are you to take up this opportunity yourself?
Lack of Information
Respondents are asked for their views on employment on the US Base on Diego Garcia despite being provided with no information as to what is involved. For example, the US does not permit families to accompany workers. Neither are the rates of pay and accommodation likely to be comparable to what British Chagossians in particular have come to accept as the norm. These are factors which are likely to be a major considerations for Chagossians before reaching any decision.
Validation of Survey responses
The online survey gives complete anonymity and repeatedly asks respondents not to provide any identifying information. Initial questions are designed to capture information on (1) Main country of residence, (2) Whether or not born in Chagos. Respondents can even answer “Prefer not to say” to both these questions. If they do so in the latter case or if they were not born in the islands, they are invited to say what their link to Chagos is.
There is no age restriction or requirement to provide age. Responses may therefore be legitimately submitted by children (however young) and adults alike.
Crucially there is no mechanism to prevent multiple submissions by the same person, and nothing to prevent fraudulent submissions either by Chagossians or any other individual.
This represents an apparent lack of oversight.
Past Consultations and Surveys, Anonymity and Numbers of Responses
Past consultations and surveys with Chagossians alert us to the very considerable challenges involved. Public and private meetings between the Foreign Office and Chagossian groups in Manchester and Crawley in the 2010s and when KPMG conducted a Feasibility Study in 2015 were rarely productive. There were language difficulties (Chagossian Creole, French, English), cultural difficulties, economic and social chasms, and distrust of authority particularly for the FCDO and Government. Officials and consultants were badly prepared and ill-informed and 'fled' back to the safety of Whitehall. They consistently misunderstood this community and the problems that it faced.
Following the KPMG Resettlement Study, the FCDO conducted a survey in 2015 “to understand the demand for resettlement from Chagossians”. This was held over a 12-week period from 4 August to 27 October 2015. A paper form contained 17 questions most of which could be answered by a simple Yes/No. A total of 837 Chagossians participated - 561 from Mauritius, 81 Seychelles, 180 UK, and a further 11 elsewhere. Participants were required to give their name, address and age. A full list of those participating is held by the FCDO. Lack of anonymity did not appear to discourage participation.
The problem of misuse of the survey due to anonymity will always be persistent. For example, none of the questions in the survey have the capacity to reveal whether a respondent is truly Chagossian or not.
The 2015 survey may serve as a possible benchmark for the number of genuine responses that can be expected. Also recently there has been a "Chagossian Statement of Self-Determination" dated 17 Nov 2025 containing the names of 650 supporters in the UK (https://conservativepost.co.uk/chagossians-urge-uk-government-to-halt-chagos-deal-and-uphold-their-right-to-self-determination/). This appears to be a credible expansion from the 180 participants in 2015 given numbers of Chagossians arriving in the UK in the last 10 years, and proof in the form of names is available. By comparison the recent survey by the Friends of the British Overseas Territories (FOTBOT) and Great British PAC mentioned above cannot be validated and produces results which seem improbable.
The Output from the Survey
It is difficult to forecast how the IRDC intend to use the data they are collecting. If it intended to be a representative poll then the lack of validation of responses means that this will be unreliable and any attempt on statistical representation of the results invalid, for example an invalid conclusion might be a statement that: ‘80% of the respondents were not confident that Mauritius would support resettlement on the Outer Islands’.
Alternatively if this is only a collation of ‘views’, we may either see a wide variation if individuals give genuinely independent submissions, but more likely there will be consultation and discussions prior to submission and similar responses will emerge.
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Representative polls or surveys are often referred to as ‘scientific polls’ - a method of measuring public opinion through structured surveys that use statistical techniques to ensure accuracy and representativeness. Such an approach enables researchers to gather data about the preferences and beliefs of a sample population, which can then be generalized to the larger population.
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Final Thoughts
We have seen the lengths that organisations such as the Great British PAC, the Friends of the British Overseas Territories, Reform, and the Conservative Party have gone to in order to discredit the Treaty and malign Mauritius. Sad to say even many on the Opposition Benches in the House of Lords are susceptible to the misinformation that abounds and have been equally vituperative. When such utterances emerge from an institution such as the House of Lords, they carry weight and have an impact.
A report on the survey from the IRDC as a House of Lords Committee is also likely to carry much weight and has the potential to be misused.
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SUMMARY OF QUESTIONS IN THE SURVEY
What is your main country of residence?
Mauritius United Kingdom Seychelles Other Prefer not to say
If selected ‘other’: Please specify the country
Were you born on the Chagos islands?
Yes No Prefer not to say
If selected ‘no’ or ‘prefer not to say’: What is your link to the Chagos islands. For example, “Grandparents born on Peros Banhos”.
Have you engaged with the UK Government on the Agreement with Mauritius?
Yes No Prefer not to say
Resettlement and employment opportunities
Under the Agreement, Mauritius can allow Chagossians to live again on the outer islands (but not Diego Garcia). How confident are you that Mauritius will support Chagossians to resettle on the outer islands?
Confident Somewhat confident Not confident
How likely are you to take up this opportunity yourself?
Very likely Somewhat likely Not likely
What would affect your decision?
How important is it that people of Chagossian descent are given greater opportunity to work on the military base on Diego Garcia?
Very important Somewhat important Not important
How likely are you to apply to work on the military base on Diego Garcia if employment was made more accessible for Chagossians?
Very likely Somewhat likely Not likely
You can explain your earlier answers on Resettlement and employment opportunities here if you wish. Leave blank if you do not.
Financial support for Chagossians
The Agreement says that Mauritius will set up a Trust Fund with £40 million from the UK to help Chagossians. How confident are you that Chagossians will benefit from this?
Confident Somewhat confident Not confident
How do you think the money from the trust fund should be used to best support the Chagossian community? For example, what should the priorities be? Leave blank if you are unsure or have no specific views
What oversight mechanisms or management arrangements would give you confidence that the Trust Fund is being properly managed? Leave blank if you are unsure or have no specific views.
In addition to the Trust Fund, the UK will also give Mauritius £45 million every year for 25 years for projects to help all Mauritians. What projects should it prioritise?
You can explain your earlier answers on financial support for Chagossians here if you wish. Leave blank if you do not
Environmental protection and fishing rights
The Agreement says that the UK will assist Mauritius in the establishment and management of a Marine Protected Area (MPA) around the islands. Is the establishment of a new Marine Protected Area important to you?
Yes No Not sure
Who should play a role in managing the Marine Protected Area around the Chagos islands? Select all that apply.
Chagossians Mauritius UK US Other
If you selected ‘Other’, please specify
How can conservation efforts protect nature and still keep Chagossian fishing traditions alive? Leave blank if you are unsure or have no specific views.
You can explain your earlier answers on environmental protections and fishing rights here if you wish. Leave blank if you do not.
Please tell us if there is anything else you would like to raise. Leave blank if not.