2002 - Phase 2 B Study

The Consortium

Phase 2B was put out for tender in May 2001 and was contracted to a consortium of Posford Haskoning, together with MacAlister Elliott & Partners and Agrisystems Ltd.

Field work in Chagos

The Study involved a period of field work (visit to Peros Banhos and Salomon Atolls) and desk studies and report writing. This Phase lasted from November 2001 to April 2002.

After the completion of 21 days of field work in Peros Banhos and Salomon Atolls, the team of consultants returned to the UK to commence analysis and report writing.

Progress Reports & Meetings with the FCO

A Second Progress Report which covered the period 25 January to 28 February 2002 was submitted to the BIOT and discussed at a meeting on 6 March 2002 between Alex Holland (Posford Haskoning), Alan Huckle (Head, Overseas Territories Department and BIOT Commissioner), Louise Savill (BIOT Adminstrator) and Brian Little (FCO Feasibility Study Project Manager). The Progress Report laid down the future work programme, with draft reports from individual consultants due at Posford Haskoning by 22 March 2002, followed by submission of the entire first draft to BIOT on 31 March 2002.

A Memorandum written by Alex Holland, dated 7 March 2002, and addressed to the other consultants is the single available record of this meeting (the FCO consistently claim that they hold no record). Ms Holland records that Commissioner Huckle (1) reiterated the political importance of the report, (2) its high profile nature, and (3) that it would be ‘peer reviewed’. She records Mr. Huckle as saying:

"The FCO had hoped that Phase II would negate the need for Phase III, i.e. if it concluded that resettlement wasn’t feasible,"

and she comments:

"but realistically, that was never likely to be the outcome. The FCO is hoping that the section on Climate Change will resolve its difficulties…".

It was also clear that the FCO anticipated that the outcome of the Chagossians legal claim for compensation would go against them, and that accordingly they were looking to the report section on Climate Change to “resolve its difficulties”. In the absence of any note or memorandum made by officials, this remains the only record of what officials said to consultants at any stage of the two-year Feasibility Study process. Clearly, there was no attempt by the FCO to disguise or avoid any reference to what they wished the report to say.

The first draft of the Executive Summary of the Phase 2B study was received by BIOT in the week commencing 8 April 2002 (the final Executive Summary along with the full Report was not published until July - a period of 3 months during which considerable re-drafting of this section took place). The initial reaction to this draft by BIOT is recorded in a Note by Commissioner Huckle dated 11 April 2002 addressed to Richard Wilkinson, Director Americas, and Sir Michael Jay, Permanent Under-Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs. Mr. Huckle gives a relatively bland assessment, but draws attention to what he calls the “key finding” (as contained in the ‘General conclusion’) quoting that:

“whilst it may be feasible to resettle the islands in the short-term, the costs of maintaining long-term inhabitation are likely to be prohibitive”. He also concludes that: “I am not sure that it will be necessary to go into this next stage [Phase 3] which would take several more months (but would prefer to see the full report before making a recommendation)”.

A telling comment is added by Richard Wilkinson:

“Whilst not perhaps as conclusive as I had hoped, this report still concludes that anything in the way of a modern self-sustaining economy is likely to be impossible. When we come to publish our official reaction we shall be justified in being very cautious about resettlement. Even if we cannot be totally dismissive”.

This appears to reflect the outcome that the FCO was hoping for and which would let them ‘off the hook’ when it came to having to formulate any resettlement programme, consequent on the defeat in Bancoult (1).

Internal Review by FCO

On 12 April 2002, Alex Holland despatched the first draft of the remaining sections of the Report (Volumes II, III, and IV) and these were received by BIOT on 15 April 2002. On 24 April 2002 Charles Hamilton (who had just succeeded Louise Savill as BIOT Administrator on 15 March 2002 ) wrote to Dr Charles Sheppard (a tropical marine ecologist at Warwick University who had extensive previous work experience in the Chagos) that:

“I need someone to review in strictest confidence the draft to check whether the science is sufficiently robust to support its conclusions. If we are going to base future policy on the study we need to be sure of this in our own minds. Would you be prepared to do this for me against a payment of an appropriate fee?”

On 14 May 2002, Dr Sheppard returned his assessment of the draft Phase 2B Report to Mr Hamilton. In a summary e-mail, he wrote:

“You will see that I consider some parts to be strong and sound, and others to be quite hopeless, and some key elements not even attempted even though they are in the ToR [Terms of Reference]. Actually resolution of that might not be too difficult as far as the resettlement issue is concerned, as the sound sections reach conclusions which are clear and in my view correct, and indeed are supported by emerging science connected with tropical areas generally. However, others on e.g. resources are poor and so the present Posford report should not in my view be released in its present form; some of its science would be badly savaged by anyone not happy with your conclusions, and so, by implication, could some of the conclusions themselves.”

Sheppard opinionated that the conclusions: “… are clear and in my view correct”, and goes on to reassure Hamilton “and indeed are supported by emerging science connected with tropical areas generally” without giving any further details or justification for this latter statement. Sheppard’s full assessment ran to 14 typed pages. In many areas it is highly critical of the draft Report. Most of the detailed criticisms relate to the ‘Resource Assessments’ in Volume II and the ‘Resettlement Issues’ in Volume III rather than to the Executive Summary (Volume I). In particular, Volume II Chapter 6 which concerns the critical part of the study which led to the assessment of overtopping and flooding of the islands, receives little criticism from Sheppard. Since, to date, Volumes II-IV have not been produced in their original draft form, it is not possible independently to assess the detailed validity of Sheppard’s comments.

Publication of the Phase 2B Report

The final Phase 2B Report was published in July 2002 after clearance by FCO/BIOT officials. The 24 page Executive Summary appeared in Volume I (Phase 2B Volume I- Executive Summary June 2002). Th full report runs to a further 3 volumes and Annexes and can be downloaded as a ZIP file - click here: Phase 2B.