Research
This is my personal webpage. The views expressed here are my personal view and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of the Treasury or the U.S. Government.
Working Papers
Working from Home after COVID-19: What Do Job Postings Tell Us? joint with Pawel Adrjan, Gabriele Ciminelli, Alexandre Judes, Michael Koelle, and Cyrille Schwellnus
Webpage for the paper including the dataset now updated through August 2023: https://www.hiringlab.org/remote-work/
Related Papers and Proceedings article: Adrjan, Pawel, Gabriele Ciminelli, Alexandre Judes, Michael Koelle, Cyrille Schwellnus, and Tara Sinclair. 2023. "Unlocked Potential: Work-from-Home Job Postings in 20 OECD Countries." AEA Papers and Proceedings, 113: 604-08.
Related OECD Productivity Working Paper: Will it stay or will it go? Analysing developments in telework during COVID-19 using online job postings data
Related VoxEU Post: Teleworking is here to stay and may raise productivity if implemented appropriately
Associated Indeed Hiring Lab blog post: Will Remote Work Persist after the Pandemic? By Alexandre Judes, Pawel Adrjan and Tara Sinclair
Press coverage: WSJ, Bloomberg 12/18/21, Bloomberg 1/20/22, Süddeutsche Zeitung, Les Echos, Le Figaro, RTE.ie (Irish national broadcaster), SVT (Swedish public broadcaster), Economic Times (India)
Sentiment and Uncertainty about Regulation joint with Zhoudan Xie.
H.O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting Working Paper No. 2021-004
July 15, 2022: Featured in The Regulatory Review, from the Penn Program on Regulation, 'Week in Review' as a work they're reading this week.
Labour Market Composition and Unemployment Dynamics, joint with Amy Guisinger.
Regulation, Jobs, and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis with Kathryn Vesey (now White).
Guest blog on Econbrowser based on this research.
Regulatory Policy Commentary based on this research.
WSJ Article citing this research related to the January 30, 2017 Executive Order.
Washington Monthly article citing this research in June of 2017.
Another Washington Monthly article citing this research in January of 2019: How Trump Officials Abuse Cost-Benefit Analysis to Attack Regulations
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Journal Article Publications
Employment Reconciliation and Nowcasting joint with Eiji Goto, Jan P.A.M. Jacobs, and Simon van Norden . Journal of Applied Econometrics (open access!) Volume38, Issue7, November/December 2023, Pages 1007-1017.
Unlocked Potential: Work-from-Home Job Postings in 20 OECD Countries, joint with Pawel Adrjan, Gabriele Ciminelli, Alexandre Judes, Michael Koelle, and Cyrille Schwellnus. 2023. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 113: 604-08.
Webpage for the paper including the dataset: https://www.hiringlab.org/remote-work/
Nowcasting Unemployment Insurance Claims in the Time of COVID-19, joint with William D. Larson. International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 38, Issue 2, April–June 2022, Pages 635-647.
Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter? with Pao-Lin Tien and Edward N. Gamber, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Volume 83, Issue 3, June 2021, Pages 686-712.
Old version is IIEP Working Paper 2016-14, with summary here, and CAMA Working Paper 47/2016.
What Does Forecaster Disagreement Tell Us about the State of the Economy? with Constantin Bürgi, Applied Economics Letters Volume 28, Issue 1, 2021, Pages 49-53.
A Textual Analysis of Bank of England Growth Forecasts with Jacob T. Jones and Herman O. Stekler, International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 36, Issue 4, October–December 2020, Pages 1478-1487, Special Section: Text-Based Forecasting.
Covered by Jason Lange of Reuters in: A few choice words could lead to better central bank forecasts
Migration and Online Job Search: A Gravity Model Approach, joint with Mariano Mamertino, Economics Letters Volume 181, August 2019, Pages 51-53.
Longer working paper version here: IIEP Working Paper 2018-3
Incorporates this previous working paper: Online Job Search and Migration Intentions Across EU Member States with Mariano Mamertino, Institute for International Economic Policy Working Paper 2016-5 (summary here).
More Greeks Looking to Work Abroad, Search Engines Suggest, New York Times, Jul 10, 2015, is based on preliminary research that is part of this working paper.
Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions, in the special issue on Forecasting Issues in Developing Economies in the International Journal of Forecasting Volume 35, Issue 3, July–September 2019, Pages 1108-1117.
Institute for International Economic Policy Working Paper No. 2012-09.
Research project funded by GW-CIBER
Project highlighted on page 8 of the GW-CIBER 2011-2012 Annual Report.
A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law, with Amy Y. Guisinger, Rubén Hernández-Murillo, and Michael T. Owyang, Regional Science and Urban Economics 68 (2018), pp. 239-248.
A Nonparametric Approach to Identifying a Subset of Forecasters that Outperforms the Simple Average, with Constantin Bürgi, Empirical Economics , Volume 53, Issue 1, August 2017, pp. 101-115.
In the special issue in honor of Kajal Lahiri.
Working paper version: RPF Working Paper 2015-006.
Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition, with Hans Christian Müller-Dröge and Herman Stekler, Journal of Forecasting, Vol 35, Issue 6, September 2016, pp. 493-503.
What Can We Learn from Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts? with Jeffrey D. Messina and Herman O. Stekler Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 45, September 2015, Pages 54-62.
Testing Stationarity with Unobserved Components Models with James Morley and Irina Panovska, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 21, Issue 1, January 2017, pp. 160-182.
Working paper version: UNSW Business School Research Paper No. 2012 ECON 41B
Direct download of zipped code files here.
The Failure of Forecasts in the Great Recession, with Daniel S. Culbertson, Challenge. Vol. 57 No. 6 pp. 34-45.
Statistical versus economic output gap measures: evidence from Mongolia, with Julia Bersch. Economics Bulletin, Vol. 34 No. 3 pp. 1864-1874
A previous version is IMF Working Paper No. 11/79.
Okun’s Law in Real Time, with Amy Y. Guisinger, special section in honor of Herman Stekler of the International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 31, Issue 1, January–March 2015, Pages 185-187.
Working paper version: IIEP Working Paper No. 2014-005.
Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts with H.O. Stekler and Warren Carnow, special section in honor of Herman Stekler of the International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 31, Issue 1, January–March 2015, Pages 157–164.
An earlier version was RPF Working Paper No. 2012-002.
How Well Does “Core” Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes? with Michael Bradley and Dennis Jansen, Macroeconomic Dynamics / Volume 19 / Special Issue 04 / June 2015, pp 791 - 815.
Working paper version: CAMA Working Paper No. 26/2013.
Cited in the Florida Weekly.
Mentioned in Links for 05-29-2013 by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2013-05-29.
A New Approach for Evaluating Economic Forecasts with H.O. Stekler and Warren Carnow, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 32 No. 3 pp. 2332-2342 (2012).
Link to the working paper version.
Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates with H.O. Stekler, International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 29, Issue 4, October–December 2013, Pages 736-750.
Link to the working paper version.
Here is a New York Times article where I am quoted regarding this paper.
Forecasting Data Vintages, International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 29, Issue 4, October–December 2013, Pages 715-717.
This paper is a comment on Clements and Galvão’s “Forecasting with Vector Autoregressive Models of Data Vintages: US output growth and inflation” which is in the same issue.
Link to the working paper version.
Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation with Edward N. Gamber, H.O. Stekler, and Elizabeth Reid, International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 28, Issue 2, April–June 2012, Pages 309–314.
Link to the working paper version.
Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach with Sinchan Mitra, Macroeconomic Dynamics, volume 16, issue 03, pp. 396-422 (2012).
Link to the working paper version.
Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics Vol. 14: Iss. 1, Article 3 (2010).
Link to the working paper version.
Here's a link to an updated version of the paper that I presented at the Brookings Institution on November 6, 2009.
Here's a link to a blog by Brad DeLong citing this article.
Cited in Milton Friedman got another big idea right Crain's Chicago Business November 04, 2019.
Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? with Fred Joutz and H.O. Stekler, Economics Letters 108 (2010), pp. 28-32.
Link to the working paper version.
Typo! In Table 1b the standard error for the inflation dummy is wrong. It should be 0.222 (instead of 0.003). The value reported is the p-value rather than the standard error.
Here's a link to a Business Standard article citing this paper.
This paper has been on SSRN's Top Ten download list for ERN: Forecasting & Simulation (Employment) (Topic), ERN: Forecasting & Simulation (Employment) (Topic), ERN: Forecasting & Simulation (Monetary) (Topic) and ERN: Forecasting & Simulation (Prices) (Topic).
Directional Forecasts of GDP and Inflation: A Joint Evaluation with an Application to Federal Reserve Predictions, with H.O. Stekler and Lindsay Kitzinger, Applied Economics, Volume 42, Issue 18 July 2010 , pages 2289 - 2297.
Here is a video abstract of the paper.
Link to the working paper version.
Cited in a post on Econbrowser: "Ed Lazear Comments on Government Forecasts"
The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 41, No. 2–3 (March–April 2009) pages 529-542.
Link to the working paper version.
Here's a link to a RATS program posted by Tom Doen at Estima that replicates my results.
Forecast Evaluation of AveAve Forecasts in the Global VAR Context with H.O. Stekler, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 25 (2009), pp. 693-696 (invited commentary).
Link to the working paper version.
Searching for Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Pension Coverage, with Leora Friedberg and Michael Owyang, Topics in Economic Analysis & Policy Vol. 6: Iss. 1, Article 14 (2006).
Links to working paper versions:
The Differential Approach to Superlative Index Number Theory with William A. Barnett and Ki-Hong Choi, Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Supplement (December, 2002).
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Conference Volume/Proceedings Articles
Mismatch in Online Job Searches, joint with Martha E. Gimbel. Proceedings of the LERA 2020 Meetings, pages 93 - 107.
Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting in Futures Past. Economic Forecasting in the 20th and 21st Century in the peer-reviewed series "Literature - Culture - Economy" edited by Ulrich Fristche, Roman Köster and Laetitia Lenel (publisher: Peter Lang).
Working paper version: GW Research Program on Forecasting Working Paper No. 2019-003.
New York Times articles referencing this research: A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here’s Where You’ll See It First and What Is a Recession, and Why Are People Talking About the Next One?
Business Insider article referencing this research: For the first time in US history, a decade will pass without the country falling into a recession
Time-dependent Bias in the Fed's Greenbook Forecasts with Neil R. Ericsson, Stedman B. Hood, Frederick Joutz, and Herman O. Stekler. 2015. In JSM Proceedings, Business and Economic Statistics Section. Alexandria, VA: American Statistical Association. 1568—1582.
Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between China and the Developed World with Yueqing Jia
In The Evolving Role of China in the Global Economy, edited by Yin-Wong Cheung and Jakob de Haan, 83-106, CESifo Seminar Series, MIT Press: Cambridge, MA (2013).
Prepared for the CESifo Venice Summer Institute workshop on The Evolving Role of China in the Global Economy.
Related working paper (also with Yueqing Jia), funded by GW-CIBER: Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between the US and China.
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Treasury Public Reports
State and Local Governments in the Post-COVID Recovery By Eric Van Nostrand, Laura Feiveson, and Tara Sinclair. U.S. Department of the Treasury, March 11, 2024.
An Update to “The Purchasing Power of American Households” By Eric Van Nostrand, Laura Feiveson, and Tara Sinclair. U.S. Department of the Treasury, January 25, 2024.
The Purchasing Power of American Households By Eric Van Nostrand, Laura Feiveson, and Tara Sinclair. U.S. Department of the Treasury, December 14, 2023.
The U.S. Economy in Global Context By Eric Van Nostrand and Tara Sinclair. U.S. Department of the Treasury, October 26, 2023.
Unpacking the Boom in U.S. Construction of Manufacturing Facilities By Eric Van Nostrand, Tara Sinclair, and Samarth Gupta. U.S. Department of the Treasury, June 27, 2023.
The U.S. Economic Recovery in International Context By Benjamin Harris and Tara Sinclair. U.S. Department of the Treasury, June 5, 2023.
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Indeed Hiring Lab Reports
The State of Opportunity: Overcoming the Wage Crisis in Today's Labor Market, July 2016.
Labor Market Outlook 2016: Uncovering the Causes of Global Jobs Mismatch, January 2016.
Beyond the Talent Shortage: How Tech Candidates Search For Jobs, September 2015.
The Talent Driven Economy: Emerging Interests of Today's Job Seeker, May 2015.
Three Generations of Talent: Who's Searching for Jobs Today, December 2014.
Where People Search for Jobs: Cross-Border Labor Mobility Report, July 2014.
What Job Seekers Want: Occupation Satisfaction & Desirability Report, March 2014.