James Morley


I am a Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Sydney (click here for my university webpage and here for a pdf of my full CV).

I teach macroeconomics, finance, and econometrics. My research uses statistical analysis to gain insights into a number of empirical issues in economics, including the following:

  • Are business cycle fluctuations symmetric? What are their sources and economic implications?

  • What is the nature of structural change in macroeconomic relationships? Is it gradual or abrupt?

  • What are the sources of persistent changes in the unemployment rate?

  • How does stock market volatility affect expected returns in the stock market?

  • Why are exchange rates so volatile and persistent?

Email: james.morley[at]sydney.edu.au

Phone: +612 9351 3368

Office: Room 607, Social Sciences Building

Mailing address:

School of Economics

Level 5, Social Sciences Building

University of Sydney

Sydney NSW 2006


What's New?

Latest nowcasts of the U.S. output gap based on Berger, Morley, and Wong (forthcoming) always available at outputgapnow.com

13 January 2022

New CAMA working paper The Decline in r* According to a Robust Multivariate Trend-Cycle Decomposition

24 December 2021

Awarded ARC Discovery Grant on "Understanding Macroeconomic Fluctuations with Unobserved Networks" (with Valentyn Panchenko, Christiern Rose, Jorge Miranda Pinto, and Dick van Dijk)

29 November 2021

Cyclical Signals from the Labor Market” accepted for publication in Oxford Open Economics

18 October 2021

New Federal Reserve Board FEDS working paper A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate”. Latest data on the structural shadow rate available for download here

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