New CAMA working paper “How Important Is Global R-Star for Open Economies?”
“Trend-Cycle Decomposition in the Presence of Large Shocks” published in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. See accompanying website bnfiltering.com and EViews add-in
I have been appointed Editor of The Economic Record
Austaxpolicy blog post for recent working paper “How Does Tax and Transfer Progressivity Affect Household Consumption Insurance?”
Call for Papers and website for the ninth edition of the "Continuing Education in Macroeconometrics" workshop to be held in conjunction with the "Expectations in Dynamic Macroeconomic Models" workshop on 21-22 November in Adelaide
Book review of “Zero Interest Policy & the New Abnormal: A Critique, by Michael Beenstock” published in The Economic Record
Updated version of “Unemployment in a Commodity-Rich Economy: How Relevant Is Dutch Disease?”
“A Simple Correction for Misspecification in Trend-Cycle Decompositions with an Application to Estimating r*” published open access in the Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (code, including to apply to given preliminary estimated trend, available here)
Updated version of “A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate”. Data for the structural shadow rate available here
“Did Marginal Propensities to Consume Change with the Housing Boom and Bust?” published open access in the Journal of Applied Econometrics (code available here)
Awarded ARC Discovery Grant on "Implications of Global Economic Forces for Domestic Monetary Policy" (with Benjamin Wong, Qazi Haque, and Qingyuan Du)
“Does the Survey of Professional Forecasters Help Predict the Shape of Recessions in Real Time?” published open access in Economics Letters (code available here)
PhD scholarship opportunity for international students to study in macroeconomics at the University of Sydney.
New CAMA working paper “Dutch Disease, Unemployment and Structural Change”
New CAMA working paper “Does the Survey of Professional Forecasters Help Predict the Shape of Recessions in Real Time?”
My PhD student Michaela Haderer has accepted a job at the Reserve Bank of Australia. Congratulations, Michaela!
I have been appointed to the ARC College of Experts
“Estimating the Euro Area Output Gap Using Multivariate Information and Addressing the COVID-19 Pandemic” accepted for publication in the European Economic Review
My former PhD student Tara Sinclair has been appointed Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics in the Office of Economic Policy at the U.S. Department of Treasury. Congratulations, Tara!
“Cyclical Signals from the Labor Market” published as lead article in inaugural issue of Oxford Open Economics
"Estimating Household Consumption Insurance" now available open access in the Journal of Applied Econometrics. Matlab, R, and Gauss code available here
"Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated Since the Great Recession?" published open access in the Review of Economics and Statistics
Short 15 minute interview with Faculti on nowcasting the output gap
Awarded ARC Discovery Grant on "Understanding Macroeconomic Fluctuations with Unobserved Networks" (with Valentyn Panchenko, Christiern Rose, Jorge Miranda Pinto, and Dick van Dijk)
New Federal Reserve Board FEDS working paper “A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate”. Latest data on the structural shadow rate available for download here
"When Is Discretionary Fiscal Policy Effective?" published in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics. Code available here and online appendix available here
I have been appointed as an Associate Editor for the Journal of Business & Economic Statistics from 2022-2024
Masterclass lecture on "The Economic Policy Lessons of the COVID Crisis"
“Debt and Financial Market Contagion” accepted for publication in Empirical Economics
I have been appointed for a second three-year term (2021-2023) as an Associate Editor of the Journal of Applied Econometrics
EViews add-in now available for multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on a BVAR, as proposed in Morley and Wong (2020, Journal of Applied Econometrics)
"Nowcasting the Output Gap" for the Special Theme Issue on Covid19 available online in the Journal of Econometrics. Nowcasts also available at http://outputgapnow.com. Code available here
"Have the Driving Forces of Inflation Changed in Advanced and Emerging Market Economies?" now available as a BIS working paper
"Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?" published in Macroeconomic Dynamics. GAUSS code available
Heather Anderson, Renee Fry-McKibbin, and I guest-edited a special issue of The Economic Record dedicated to the memory of Mardi Dungy. Mardi was an inspiration as an economist and a wonderful person. She is deeply missed by all who knew her
Updated BN filter add-in for EViews to easier-to-use version 2.2. For more details about the add-in, see EViews blog post by my co-author Ben Wong and Davaajargal Luvsannyam
Article in Pearls and Irritations on why the RBA should stick to inflation targeting
Participated in CAMA "COVID-19 and Policy Choices" panel discussion (with slides) along with Hilde Bjørnland and Dan Rees
I have been elected a voting member of the Australasian Standing Committee of the Econometric Society for 2020-2023
Article in Inside Story on the tradeoffs involved with economic and social restrictions
Podcast with Callum Jones on a macro model of optimal mitigation policy for a pandemic
Article in The Conversation on the need for fiscal stimulus. Full "wonkish" version is here. Also a member of Go8 "Roadmap to Recovery" taskforce. Report is here
"A Factor Model Analysis of the Australian Economy and the Effects of Inflation Targeting" published as Early View in The Economic Record. Code available here
Podcast with Q&A about the economic challenges of the COVID-19 crisis
Podcast on the fiscal policy response to the crisis
Podcast on the RBA's monetary policy in a time of crisis
Podcast on the economic consequences of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Crisis
EViews blog post by my co-author Ben Wong on how to use the BN filter add-in for EViews
"Estimating and Accounting for the Output Gap with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions" published as lead article in the Journal of Applied Econometrics. Code available here
I have been elected a Fellow of the International Association for Applied Econometrics
"The Australian Real-Time Fiscal Database: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Analysing Planned and Realised Fiscal Policies" accepted for publication in the Economic Record. Data available here
"Improving Likelihood-Ratio-Based Confidence Intervals for Threshold Parameters in Finite Samples" awarded Best Paper in 2018 for Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics
Pre-Budget Seminar presentation (starts around 17mins 45secs) at the Australian Parliamentary Library and slides
Co-Director (with Mariano Kulish) of the University of Sydney research initiative "Global Perspectives on Economic Policy"
I have been appointed a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at Lancaster University and will visit there periodically in 2019-2020
Conference paper from the RBA policy conference last March
Awarded two ARC Discovery Grants on "Fiscal Policy and Unemployment in an Open Economy" (with Mariano Kulish and Francesco Zanetti) and "Understanding the Sources of Secular Stagnation" (with Yunjong Eo and Ben Wong)
"Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter" published in the Review of Economics and Statistics. R and Matlab code available.
5th Annual Continuing Education in Macroeconometrics workshop at University of Sydney
I have been appointed as an Associate Editor of the Journal of Applied Econometrics
Question on Q&A ("Dual Citizens" segment at 26:34)
I have been appointed to the Economic Statistics Advisory Group for the Australian Bureau of Statistics
I am excited to announce that I will be moving to University of Sydney School of Economics as a Professor of Macroeconomics in mid September!