Tara M. Sinclair

This is my personal webpage.  The views expressed here are my personal view and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of the Treasury or the U.S. Government.

Current Positions

U.S. Department of the Treasury, Office of Economic Policy

Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics 

The George Washington University   

Professor of Economics and International Affairs 

Director of the H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting                                                                                                               

Photo of Professor Tara Sinclair

Brief Biography

I am currently on detail serving as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics in the Office of Economic Policy at the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

My research interests focus on modeling, explaining, and forecasting macroeconomic and particularly labor market fluctuations and trends for different countries. I also evaluate forecasts, particularly with respect to their role in monetary policy and decision-making.  I am director of the H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting and I have taught undergraduate and graduate courses in macroeconomics and econometrics.  I also previously served as a Special Government Employee (SGE) member of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Technical Advisory Committee (BLSTAC)

As chief economist (2014-2016) and then senior fellow (2016-2022) at Indeed, I founded the Indeed Hiring Lab, the research arm of the world's #1 job site, and developed original research using Indeed data on labor markets around the world. 

Expertise for Media

Recessions (prediction, prevention, preparation), labor markets (U.S., local, and international), macroeconomic data (e.g.: GDP, inflation, unemployment rate), Big Data, Federal Reserve policy, government debt and deficit, Treasury policy, global macroeconomic policy and conditions.


Ph.D., Economics, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri May 2005

A.M., Economics, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri 2001

B.A., Foreign Languages, Wheaton College, Wheaton, Illinois 1996


Essays on Macroeconomics and the Labor Market

Committee: James Morley (chair), Gaetano Antinolfi, Steven Fazzari,

Edward Greenberg, Siddhartha Chib, and Angela Davis

Fields of Specialization:

Macroeconomics, Labor Economics, Time Series Econometrics

See my research page for more information on my publications and research papers.