Suguru Otani's page

This website is managed by Suguru Otani (pronunciation: "SooGooLoo Oh-tani").　CV

Email: suguru.otani[at]e.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Research field: Empirical Industrial Organization, Empirical Matching, Labor Economics, Transportation Economics

Employment
2026.4- Project Lecturer (特任講師), The University of Tokyo, Department of Economics, Market Design Center (UTMD)

2024.1-2026.3 Project Assistant Professor, UTMD

Education

2023, Ph.D. in Economics, Rice University

2018, M.A. in Economics, Osaka University

2015, B.A. in Business and Commerce, Keio University

Presentation or/and Attendance Schedule

2025: CPRC(6/6), WEAI (6/20-24, by coauthor) SOLE(6/28-30), Musashi U (07/17), SWET2025(8/4-8, 4 papers), ESWC(8/18-22, 3 papers), 28th Labor Economics Conference at Osaka U (3 papers), 20th Applied Econometrics Conference (11/8, by coauthor), Sophia U (11/27), APIOC 2025 (12/12-14)
2026: Kansai Labor Seminar (2/20), Doshisha U (3/6), GRIPS(5/13), Japan Economic Association (5/23,24), Kobe U (5/27), Okayama U (6/11), SWET2026 (8/6, by coauthors), Asian Game Theory Conference 2026 (8/25, 26 papers, by coauthor), EALE2026 (8/31-9/2, 2 papers, by coauthors), 29th Labor Economics Conference (4 papers, by me and coauthors), AASLE2026

Research Interest in Japanese 研究関心

実証ビジネスエコノミクス(産業組織論)と実証マッチング(応用先はおもに労働経済学、行動経済学)を専門としている二刀流の大谷です。

第一に、実証産業組織論において用いられる構造推定手法をユニークなデータセットと制度に応用していくことに関心があります。具体的には、
(1)競争政策(需要推定、製品市場および労働市場における市場支配力、動学ゲーム、合併)
(2)計量マーケティングおよびビジネスエコノミクス(個人動学選択最適化、消費者/労働者サーチ行動、静学ゲーム(オークション)、マッチング&製品&チーム生産関数、広告＆推薦アルゴリズム、ダイナミックプライシング)
(3)デジタルプラットフォームエコノミクス(労働、不動産、結婚/デーティング、交通、ECサイト)
(4)経済史および産業成長(企業の参入退出と投資行動、生産性、イノベーション、政治経済への影響)
に関する実証論文を執筆しています。
第二に、実証マッチングにおいて用いられる構造推定手法および因果推論手法(フィールド実験RCT、IV、DID、RDD、Bunching)を、主に非中央集権的な(狭義の)マッチング市場、人と人の補完的/代替的な相性といった(広義の)マッチングといった労働経済学的なトピックに応用することに関心があります。
- 非中央集権的な(狭義の)マッチング市場:
  - (1)外部労働市場(ミクロ＆マクロ労働経済学で分析される、転職/就職/バイト市場といった、仕事と労働者、企業と労働者のマッチング)、
  - (2)内部労働市場(経営学や人事/組織の経済学で分析される部署内の生産性や内部昇進といった、仕事と社員、上司と部下のマッチング、チーム生産)、
  - (3)結婚/デーティング市場(家族の経済学などで分析される、男性と女性のマッチング)
  - (4)住宅市場(都市経済や空間経済などで分析される、売り手と買い手、借り手と貸し手のマッチング)
- 人と人の補完的/代替的な相性といった(広義の)マッチング:
  - (1)教育経済学(教育現場における生徒と先生の相性が認知能力、非認知能力に与える影響)
  - (2)家族の経済学 (結婚前の交渉力が結婚にどのように結びつくか)
  - (3)スポーツ経済学(スポーツ選手のチーム生産における相性、どういったゲームデザインやチーム編成にすると行動経済学的にパフォーマンスが上がるか、人々はどのように不合理なリスクテイクをしてしまうか？)
    - 具体的には、ベンチプレス、競馬、ボブスレーのデータを使った経済学論文を書いています。経済学のいい論文になりそうなデータがあれば種目は問いません。
第三に、実証産業組織論と実証マッチングに付随した形で交通経済学、行動経済学の実証研究経験、および応用計量経済学手法の技術的な側面の研究経験もあります。経済学的に面白い問いがありそう & 経営改善を科学的なアプローチで行いたい & リッチなデータおよび実験できる環境がある、という場合はぜひUTMDを通してご相談いただければ幸いです。
- - 対外的に論文内で企業名が開示されている限りで、以下の企業と共同研究を行っています。
    - MiData、BizReach、Timee、IBJ
また上記のような研究のRAをしたいというコアコース修了相当の院生の方もUTMDを通してご連絡いただければ幸いです。
自主ゼミの形で以下の院生/研究者向けのオンライン勉強会を主催しています。

2024年: 実証マッチング構造推定、マッチング顕示選好、空間マッチング構造推定、ダイナミックプライシング構造推定、因果推論恐竜本の輪読会
2025年: ハンドブック輪読会(Economics of Matching, Labor Economics, Industrial Organization, Economics of Marketing, Online and Matching-Based Market Design)
2026年: ハンドブック輪読会(Economics of Matching, Labor Economics)、実証ビジネスエコノミクス柴犬本の輪読会

日本語アウトリーチ、記事/取材

1. 東洋経済2025/06/04: 職探しや人材配置、婚活における「非中央集権的マッチング」に着目。データ分析で“最適”探る「実証マッチング」の世界

2. テレビ朝日2025/08/05: 最低賃金1118円に引き上げ　異例7回審議「1500円目標」　雇用悪化につながる可能性も【知ってもっと】【グッド！モーニング】

3. 2025/09/30: 【高橋弘樹vs最低賃金】タイミーのデータを活用！最低賃金UPで雇用どうなる！？【ReHacQ】

Working Papers

Newer to Older

Happy Birthday? Age Labels, Search Criteria, and Matching from Dating to Marriage (2026 July) (WP) Management Labor

presented at Kansai Labor Seminar 2026, Kobe U, Okayama U, AASLE2026

A Cram-School Tutor Like Me: Tutor Gender, Generation, and Student Retention (2026, June) (with Chihiro Inoue, Yutaro Nakai, Xiangyun Yin, WP (available upon request)) Education Matching

presented by coauthors at Waseda U, Ehime U, 28th Labor Economics Conference at Osaka U, Japan Economic Association 2026 Autumn, AASLE2026

Designing Recommendation Exposure and Favorite Lists: A Field Experiment in a Spot-Work Platform (2026 June) (with Shunya Noda, Kazuki Sekiya, Yuki Komatsu, Shunsuke Ozeki, Yuki Fujii, WP (UTMDWP-136)), Management/Field Experiment Matching

presented by coauthors at Weekly ERATO Meeting, SWET2026, Asian Game Theory Conference 2026

Marital Sorting on Pre-Marital Preferences for Household Behavior (2026 March) (WP(UTMDWP-127), with Yusuke Ishihata, Chihiro Inoue) Labor Matching

presented at Kansai Labor Seminar 2026, GRIPS, EALE2026 (coauthor)

Integrating Predictive Models into Two-Sided Recommendations: A Matching-Theoretic Approach (2026 Feb) (WP (UTMD-124) with Shunya Noda, Kazuki Sekiya, Yuki Komatsu, Sachio Okawa), Management/Field Experiment Matching

presented by coauthors at SWET 2025, ESWC 2025

Assortativeness Measures for Multi-Type Markets: Theory and Application (with Kenzo Imamura, Koji Yokote, Tohya Sugano, This will subsume A Note on Assortativeness Measures (2025, Dec) WP (UTMDWP-105)) Matching Theory

Presented by coauthors at Game Theory Workshop 2026, SSCW2026, European Meeting on Game Theory 2026, SWET2026, Asian Game Theory Conference 2026

Team for Speed: Nonparametric Evidence on Heterogeneous Skill-Specific Affinity in Team Production (2025 Dec) (with Masaya Nishihata, WP (UTMDWP-106), Code and Data (will be available)) Labor, Matching,

Presented at the 28th Labor Economics Conference at Osaka U

Revisiting the Identification of the Conduct Parameter in Homogeneous Goods Markets. (2026 Jan) (with Yuri Matsumura, WP (UTMDWP-107), First version: Identifying Conduct Parameters with Separable Demand: A Counterexample to Lau (1982) (2024 Oct.)) IO Theory
The Option Value of Contract Duration: Evidence from the U.S. Timber Market (2025 Dec) (with Shosuke Noguchi, WP (UTMDWP-103), Code and Data (will be available), First version: 2024 Dec) IO/Management

presented at ESWC2025

Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation (2026, Feb) (with Hayato Kanayama and Sho Miyaji, WP (UTMD-125), First version: Who Bears the Cost? High-Frequency Evidence on Minimum Wage Effects and Amenity Pass-Through in Spot Labor Markets (2025, April), UTMDWP-089 ), Labor

Selected for the runner-up of the 20th Applied Econometrics Conference (coauthor, 応用計量経済学カンファレンス優秀賞) at Hitotsubashi University
Presented at WEAI 2025, 28th Labor Economics Conference at Osaka U, 20th Applied Econometrics Conference,「人材配置の経済学」研究会, 東京労働経済研究会, Sophia U, Kochi Tech U, Minimum Wage Mini Conference at Doshisha U, EALE2026 (coauthor)
Media coverage: Diamond Online2025/08/04, テレビ朝日2025/08/05, Abema Prime 2025/8/6, JB Press 2025/9/2, ReHacQ 2025/09/30

Are Final Market Prices Sufficient for Information Aggregation? Evidence from Last-Minute Dynamics in Parimutuel Betting (2025, Sep) (with Hiroaki Hanyu, Shunsuke Ishii, Kazuhiro Teramoto, WP (UTMDWP-093), Code and Data) Behavioral/Sports R&R Economic Journal

Selected for the 19th Behavioral Economics Society Encouragement Award (行動経済学会奨励賞)
presented at SWET 2025 (coauthor), ABEF2025 (coauthor)

Elite Formation and Family Structure in Prewar Japan: Evidence from the Personnel Inquiry Records (2025, July) (WP (UTMD-091), with Hiroshi Kumanomido, Yutaro Takayasu) R&R Japanese Economic Review
Nonparametric Estimation of Matching Efficiency and Mismatch: An Application to Japanese Labor Markets (2026 May) (First version: 2024 Sep) (WP (UTMDWP-078), Code and Data (will be available))), Labor, Econometrics R&R Labour Economics

Invited for the special session on "Labor Shortages and Mismatch" at the Sixth World Labor Conference SOLE-EALE-AASLE
Presented at SWET2024, Hitotsubashi U, the 27th Labor Economics Conference at U Tokyo, 「人材配置の経済学」研究会, SOLE-EALE-AASLE-2025

Industry Dynamics with Shipping Cartels: The Case of the Container Shipping Industry (2026 July updated). (WP, Code) IO

Selected for the best paper award of the 18th Applied Econometrics Conference(応用計量経済学カンファレンス最優秀賞) at Osaka University, the Kanematsu prize 2023 (兼松賞) at Kobe University.
Presented at EGSC2023, 18th Applied Econometrics Conference, Waseda U, U Tokyo, Keio U, APIOC2024, CPRC Seminar 2025

Measuring Recruitment Elasticity in the Multi-stage Job Matching Process (2025, Aug) (with Ryo Kambayashi and Kohei Kawaguchi, WP, First version: Decomposing Recruitment Elasticity in Job Matching (2023 April)) Labor

Presented at TPLS2024, Waseda U, ESWC2025

Estimating Endogenous Coalitional Mergers: Merger Costs and Assortativeness of Size and Specialization (2023 April). (WP, Code and Data, First version: 2021 April. ) Matching

Selected for the runner-up of the 24th Moriguchi prize (森口賞) at Osaka University, the best paper award of the 16th Applied Econometrics Conference (応用計量経済学カンファレンス最優秀賞) at Hitotsubashi University.
Presented at the 16th Applied Econometrics Conference, ESWC2021

Presentation available at seminars and conferences

Last Man Standing On the Page (2025, June)(with Yageta Kiyotaka), Marketing Behavioral Economics

presented at SWET 2025 (coauthor), Musashi U, ISER(coauthor)

On-Site Spot Labor Markets (with Shinji Koiso, study note) IO Labor

presented at SWET 2025, APIOC2025

Managing the Cancellation Externality: Counterparty Cancellations, Initial Experiences, and Retention in Two-Sided Platforms (with Hayato Kanayama, Shosuke Noguchi) Marketing Labor

presented at

How Elastic Is Labor Supply When Search Frictions Are Minimal? (with Chang Yang and Daiji Kawaguchi)Labor

presented at

Quantifying Barriers to Entry: Evidence from a License Requirement on Short-term Rentals (with Kaede Hanazawa, Kan Kuno, Atsushi Yamagishi) IO Urban

presented at AREW2026(coauthor), JEMIOW-JTREE 2026(coauthor)

Selected Work in Progress

Labor Market Delineation project (with Hideyuki Tomiyama) Labor Econometrics
Agency Competition in Marriage Markets (with Kadachi Ye, Shangwen Li) IO Matching
Dynamic Search and Learning on Marriage Market Platforms (with Yusuke Ishihata, Chihiro Inoue) Labor Matching
Matchmaker project (with Kei Ikegami)
Econ History amd Marriage project (with Hiroshi Kumanomido, Yutaro Takayasu)
Dynamic Pricing project
Skill and Task project
Post-marriage Survey project
Invest in Auction project

Publication (refereed) and Non-refereed article

Publication (refereed, newer to older)

Reference Points, Risk-Taking Behavior, and Competitive Outcomes in Sequential Settings (2026) (with Masaya Nishihata, WP (UTMDWP-082), Published version, Code and Data , 18th Behavioral Economics Society Encouragement Award (行動経済学会奨励賞)), Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, March, 1573-0476 Behavioral/Sports
Unified Merger List in the Container Shipping Industry from 1966 to 2022: A Structural Estimation of M&A Matching (2025) (with Takuma Matsuda, WP, Published version, Code, ABDC 2022 rating A), Transport Policy, Volume 165, May 2025, Pages 58-69, Matching, Transportation Economics
Unified Container Shipping Industry Data From 1966: Freight Rate, Shipping Quantity, Newbuilding, Secondhand, and Scrap Price. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 176 (2023): 103186 (with Takuma Matsuda, WP, Published version, Code and Data, ABDC 2022 rating A*, Selected for Japan Society of Logistics & Shipping Economics, Best Paper Award 2024(日本海運経済学会賞).) Transportation Economics

Short and Policy Papers Publication (refereed, newer to older)

Nonparametric Estimation of Matching Efficiency and Elasticity in Japan’s Spot Work Platform, 2019–2023 (with Hayato Kanayama, WP (UTMDWP-079), Published version) Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Volume 81, September 2026, 101439 Labor, Matching
Nonparametric Estimation of Matching Efficiency and Elasticity in the On-the-Job Search Private Platform in Japan, 2014-2024 ( WP (UTMDWP-080), Published version, ABDC 2022 rating A) Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Volume 39, March 2026 Labor, Matching
Nonparametric Estimation of Matching Efficiency and Elasticity in a Marriage Agency Platform: 2014–2025 (2025) (WP (UTMDWP-087), Published version) Economics Letters, Volume 256, October 2025, 112617 Labor, Matching
Conduct Parameter Estimation in Homogeneous Goods Markets with Equilibrium Existence and Uniqueness Conditions: The Case of Log-linear Specification. (2025) (with Yuri Matsumura, WP (UTMDWP-100), Published version, Code and Data), Economics Bulletin, 45 (4), 1755-1761, IO Econometrics
Individual Rationality Conditions of Identifying Matching Costs in Transferable Utility Matching Games. (2024) Economics Bulletin, Volume 44, Issue 2, pages 690-697 (WP, Published version, Code and Data), Matching Econometrics
Resolving the Conflict on Conduct Parameter Estimation in Homogeneous Goods Markets between Bresnahan (1982) and Perloff and Shen (2012). Economics Letters (2023): 111193. (with Yuri Matsumura, WP, Published version, Code and Data), IO Econometrics

Peer-Reviewed Proceedings Papers
- Matsuda & Otani (2022). Disentangling Cartel Dissolution: The Case of the 1980s' Container Crisis. (Code and Data. IAME 2022 Conference (https://www.iame2022.org/ ))IO Transportation Economics
Invited Non-refereed Articles
- 両面マッチングプラットフォーム内におけるマッチング効率性の推定について―労働市場，結婚市場プラットフォームへの応用. オペレーションズリサーチ第71巻第3号 (2026)
Invited Conference Talk
- 日本経済学会 2026 年春季大会パネル討論最低賃金政策の再検討:雇用・生産性・市場波及効果 slide
- Invited for the special session on "Labor Shortages and Mismatch" at the Sixth World Labor Conference SOLE-EALE-AASLE 2025

Research log

2023年以前: 1.海運集約、2.海運カルテル、3.Revisitingショート、4. loglinearショート、5. testing, 6. コンテナデータ、7.コンテナ合併、8. マッチング識別ショート、9.雇用分解
2024年新作: 1.反例ショート、2.相性ショート、3.サーチMPECショート、4.5.6. HW/Spot/On-the-jobマッチング関数、7.ベンチ、8.教育ジェンダーマッチ、9.木材オークション、10.最低賃金、11. ECDA推薦カンファ
2025年新作: 1. Lastmanカンファ, 2. 中間オッズ、3.チーム生産、4. 空間カンファ, 5.ロジスティクス, 6 rollout, 7.集計結婚マッチング関数、8. サーチ条件RDD、9. JPIRデータペーパー、10. 土地区画、11.スポットCapAdjustment推薦カンファ
2026年新作: 1.TU同類婚、2.結婚高望み学習、3.相談所競争、 4.送信側、5多次元公理、6多段階公理、8.ECDA推薦実験、9.スポットCapAdjustment推薦実験
10. 住宅ナイトキャップ, 11. Matchmaker, 12. Headhunter

2026年新作仕込み:
1.スポーツ外部労働市場、2.空き家、3.JPIR政略結婚、 4.KOマーケティング, 5.Dynamic Pricing、6.派遣、7.スポットtwo-sided推薦、8. 引き抜き、9.Middle manager mobility, 10.Active jobseeker11.マッチングオークション

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