The coronavirus pandemic in 2020 did more than infect tens of millions of people and kill hundreds of thousands worldwide, it changed the way we live in many ways – some for the long-term, perhaps even permanently. Following are some examples:
Jobs
Many people lost their jobs. In the US alone, at one point, about one third of the workforce was jobless. As the economy slowly recovered, many of these jobs returned but many others did not. Some jobs may be lost forever. In many businesses, demand may not return to prior levels and not require the previous workforce. And some businesses – large and small – were closed permanently with those jobs gone forever. Other businesses learned during this crisis to operate more efficiently with fewer workers. Some adopted or expanded technology solutions such as computers, automation, and artificial intelligence. And many, if not most businesses learned to operate with a remote workforce – i.e. “work at home”. This may make the traditional office environment obsolete. I think the impact of the pandemic on jobs will be dramatic and long-lasting.
Travel
During the pandemic, travel for business and pleasure almost stopped completely. Even as economies opened up, travel did not recover to previous levels and changed by its very nature. Airlines and cruise lines were essentially shut down and significantly damaged financially – some never to recover. Those that survived had to change the way they operate – e.g., passenger occupancy, cleaning procedures, food services, social distancing, masks, etc. Mass transportation had to make similar changes and may never return to the same levels. Even casual travel – such as for vacations – when it began to recover - it changed. Road trips became more popular including the use of campers and recreational vehicles. I don’t know when people – including myself – will feel comfortable traveling as frequently and as far as they have in the past.
The hotel industry was devastated by the pandemic. Travel for both business and pleasure basically stopped worldwide. Hotels closed and took the downtime to thoroughly clean and reconfigure their facilities. They had to develop new procedures for reservations, cancellations, check-in and cleaning. As the economies began to slowly open up again, the hotel industry tried to recover. If travel does not return to previous levels, the hotel industry will face reduced occupancy at lower room rates. I expect that some hotels and chains will not survive.
Entertainment and Sports
The live entertainment industry was significantly impacted by the pandemic – it basically shut down. Theaters (movies, plays and concerts), stadiums, arenas, etc. may never be the same. Some may close forever. But they will all change. Some events – like sports – had to learn how to resume without an audience. Eventually, when people are allowed to come back, they’ll have to make changes – e.g. crowd control, seating, food services, etc. It may not be a pleasant experience. Attendance may not recover. People may be satisfied with televised entertainment and events. The age of large venues and huge crowds may be over.
During the peak of the pandemic, sports stopped. I used to watch a lot of college and professional sports – especially football and basketball. I had to get used to not seeing any for about six months. And when they started to come back, it was different and unpleasant. The arenas and stadiums had no attendees. They did strange things like putting banners over the seats or even placed paper cutouts of people in the seats and piped in artificial crowd noise – ridiculous. And some of the sporting events became political demonstrations. The seasons were shortened and some teams were eliminated. I stopped watching sports. When and if they try to return to “normal”, they will have to change. They will have to reduce the seating, control the crowds, change the food and drink service – it will not be the same experience. Although live sporting events were more fun, most people will probably be satisfied watching them on television. This will significantly change the economics of sports. Some colleges have already eliminated some sports and I think more will do the same.
Restaurants, Bars & Food
Restaurants and bars were devastated by the pandemic. Almost all were closed for an extended period and opened gradually for take-out and then outdoor seating and eventually restricted indoor seating – requiring reservations. But the experience was unpleasant with masks required that made it feel like you are in a hospital ward. As a result, many restaurants and bars went out of business permanently. Those that survive will have to make changes. They will have to reduce seating capacity, which will impact their economics. They will probably have to eliminate buffets. Take-out and home delivery will become more popular and may save the industry. Bars in particular will have to find a way to reduce and control crowds and partying. Going out to eat and drink will not be the same fun experience or as popular as it was in the past.
Aside from the changes in restaurant operations – take out, home delivery, outdoor seating – there will be no more handpicked/loose food – e.g., bagel bins in supermarkets, candy bowls in offices, nut and popcorn bowls in bars, buffets, etc. – too much risk. This will probably change forever.
Education
Schools at all levels shut down during the pandemic. They learned to use remote/distance learning even at the elementary school level. It certainly wasn’t the same experience as face-to-face and on-campus education and it remains to be seen how effective it was. As schools began to reopen, class sizes were reduced, social distancing practiced, and hybrid models used – a combination of distance-learning and on-site education. These were all difficult to control and still posed risks. I think in the long-term education will have to change significantly – especially at the college level. A college education has become extremely expensive. Now that they have learned how to provide that education remotely, the expensive on-campus experience – including huge classroom and dormitory facilities – may prove to be unnecessary. This may actually make education more accessible and affordable.
Communications
The isolation during the pandemic caused people to use innovative ways to communicate. Online video conferencing tools such as Zoom and FaceTime were used widely and frequently for personal, business, and school communication. People learned to use and get comfortable with these tools. So much so that traditional face-to-face communication may not return to the level it had been. There were even virtual events such as concerts and political conventions. And the world of business and technical conferences may have changed forever. Virtual conferences proved to be very successful. They wound up attracting more participants at much lower costs. There was no need for travel, hotels, convention centers, food service, etc. Why would they go back to the traditional in-person conference model?
Socializing
People learned to avoid personal contact during the pandemic. It was not safe to shake hands, kiss or even get close to one another. So “social distancing” and wearing face coverings/masks became common practice. Eventually it would be safe to not wear masks but will we ever go back to shaking hands and kissing? Perhaps not outside of the immediate family and probably not with strangers. And gatherings with large crowds such as parties, events, beaches, bars, etc. were very risky and may prove to be less common in the future. The very nature of socializing may have changed forever.
Supply chains
During the pandemic we learned the hard way that our supply chains were fragile and flawed. Everyday things had been taken for granted. We don’t think about how the common things we use get to us. All of a sudden, we found that many things were in short supply or not available. Our supply chain had a lot of foreign dependencies – such as China – which broke down during the pandemic. In the case of pharmaceuticals for example, the US supplies only about 30% of the “active pharmaceutical ingredients” that it uses. As a result, there were shortages in common drugs such as antibiotics. We also found out that many common products such as electronics use critical materials – e.g., “rare earth metals” – that are dependent on foreign sources such as China. In fact, manufacturing in general had moved to many foreign countries whose supply was disrupted by the coronavirus. Personal Protective Equipment/PPE in particular was in great demand but in short supply due to our dependency on foreign sources. As a result of this bad experience the US must strengthen its supply chain and do more manufacturing in this country. This may prove to be a lesson that actually results in a stronger economy.
Separately, in this country, we found vulnerabilities in the food supply chain. Meat packing plants were closed due to the coronavirus and close proximity of workers. Workplaces had to be redesigned or tasks automated. These changes will probably be permanent. Milk was shut down for a time because the processing plants were closed. They too had to change to make them safer.
Elections
The elections of 2020 may have changed elections forever. As a result of social distancing practices, the very nature of campaigning changed. There were eventually no rallies, door-to-door canvassing, or large audiences for debates. Even the conventions were virtual. And mail-in ballots became the norm. These changes were not just safer but actually less expensive and more efficient. So, I think some of these practices – especially mail-in ballots – may continue in the future.
Shopping & retail stores
The pandemic had a significant impact on shopping and retail stores. People only went shopping for essentials. So most big store chains and malls were empty and many went bankrupt. There was no demand for things like business attire – e.g., suits and ties - so many of those traditional stores went out of business. Shopping online increased substantially and became the norm. They even developed a practice called “contactless delivery”. And many stores converted to drive up and take out mode. Those stores that stayed open – e.g., grocery and liquor stores – had to make changes such as social distancing, wearing masks and protected check-out. I don’t think shopping will ever be the same as it used to be.
Economies
The impact of the pandemic on economies worldwide was dramatic. The lockdowns led to business closings and then severe recessions. Unemployment reached all-time highs. This lasted an entire year and the economies may never recover to their previous strength.
The pandemic not only impacted the national economy but it caused enormous increases in spending at both the federal and state level. Much of this was an attempt to support individuals and businesses during what became a severe recession. As a result, government deficits and debt increased to unprecedented levels. This will inevitably lead to potential increases in taxes at both the federal and state level. This could prove to be very destabilizing. The US national debt actually rose to the same level as the GDF, which is considered very dangerous for the country.
Healthcare
Since the pandemic was a medical emergency, it had a significant and long-lasting effect on healthcare. Hospitals were overwhelmed with coronavirus cases. There was no capacity left for elective surgery or discretionary care. New and extensive protocols were developed for cleaning and personal protection. Personal protective equipment/PPE was in short supply. Stockpiles of PPE, pharmaceuticals, testing supplies, ICU equipment – e.g., ventilators, etc. were depleted. Nursing homes became deathtraps. Depression, drugs and alcohol use increased significantly during the lockdowns. Telemedicine – including hospital care at home - became common practice. I think we’ve learned some hard lessons from this experience that will change healthcare for the long-term.
Personal Services
During the lockdowns, a wide variety of personal services were forced to close – e.g., haircuts/salons, nail salons, gyms/personal trainers, etc. As economies began to open up again, these personal services returned but had to make significant changes. Social distancing, cleaning and masks became the common protocol. Appointments were required to avoid waiting. The service providers all had to wear masks all the time and clean between each customer. This was not a pleasant experience, so many people avoided it and did these things – like haircuts – at home. I’m not sure that these personal services will fully recover. As small businesses, I expect that many will not come back.
Infrastructure
The coronavirus made us realize some of the weaknesses in our infrastructure. Ventilation systems, for example, were generally at risk of spreading the disease. Many, if not most systems had inadequate filtration and needed to be upgraded. This should be a design consideration for all public buildings. Elevators had to have occupancy restrictions. Those who worked or lived in high-rise buildings found this to be a serious problem – not just an inconvenience.
Life in large cities became very unpleasant and risky. People who could afford it moved out of the cities to the suburbs or small towns. Over time, this may change the demographics of the country and the design of city buildings.
All Rights Reserved © 2020 Henry P. Mitchell