Publications (forthcoming/conditional accept.)

[15] Ballots, Budgets and Bricks: Brexit and the Polarisation of Individual Economic Behaviours 

Pei Kuang, Davide Luca and Zhiwu Wei 

Journal of Public Economics, Volume 259, July 2026, 105666. 

[14] Sovereign debt pricing with shifting long-run growth expectations 

Pei Kuang and Liang Shi

European Economic Review,  volume 186, June 2026, 105310. 

[13] Central bank communication and house price expectations 

Carola Binder, Pei Kuang and Li Tang. NBER wp no. 31232.  

Journal of the European Economic Association,  Vol. 24, Issue 2, April 2026, pp. 769–799. 

Media coverage: UMagazine (traditional Chinese, English), Central Banking.                                                                  

[12] Macroprudential policy and housing market expectations 

Pei Kuang, Kaushik Mitra, Li Tang and Shihan Xie

European Economic Review, volume 181, January 2026, 105191.  

Media coverage: Central Bank of Ireland staff insights

[11] Overconfidence in private information explains  biases in professional forecasts 

Klaus Adam, Pei Kuang, and Shihan Xie. CEPR DP no. 20806.

Journal of Monetary Economics, November 2025, 103839.  

[10] Potential output pessimism and austerity in the European Union 

Pei Kuang and Kaushik Mitra

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, volume 57, October 2025, p. 1871-1905.                                                            

[9] Are survey stock price forecasts anchored by fundamental forecasts? A long-run perspective 

Pei Kuang, Li Tang, Renbin Zhang and Tongbin Zhang

Economic Theory. Volume 79, pages 657–685, 2025. 

[8] Forecast Disagreement about Long-run Macroeconomic Relationships 

Pei Kuang, Li Tang, Renbin Zhang and Tongbin Zhang

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, volume 200, August 2022, p. 371 - 387.

[7] Are Rational Explosive Solutions Learnable? 

Pei Kuang and Yao Yao

Economics Letters, August 2017, volume 157, p. 62 - 66.

[6] Long-run Growth Uncertainty 

Pei Kuang and Kaushik Mitra

Journal of Monetary Economics, May 2016, volume 79, p. 67-80. 

[5] Labor Market Dynamics with Searching Frictions and Fair Wage Considerations 

Pei Kuang and Tong Wang [2nd-year PhD term paper]

Economic Inquiry, Volume 55, Issue 3, July 2017, p. 1336--1349.       

[4] A Note on Learning in a Credit Economy, Pei Kuang

Macroeconomic Dynamics 2016, volume 20, issue 03, p. 845-855                                                                              

[3] A Model of Housing and Credit Cycles with Imperfect Market Knowledge, Pei Kuang

European Economic Review, volume 70, August 2014, Pages 419–437. 

[2] Illusory Profitability of Technical Analysis in Emerging Foreign Exchange Markets 

Pei Kuang, Michael Schröder and Qingwei Wang [work before PhD program]

International Journal of Forecasting, volume 30, issue2, April–June 2014, Pages 192–205.

[1] House Price Booms and the Current Account 

Klaus Adam, Pei Kuang and Albert Marcet. NBER WP No. 17224

NBER Macroeconomics Annual, volume 26, 2012, p. 77 - 122

[Comment paper by Edward Glaeser (Harvard) Comment paper by Lars Peter Hansen (Chicago) Discussions] 

Media coverage: San Francisco Fed Economic letter, Central Bank of Ireland staff insights


Government review

Birmingham and Lewisham African Caribbean Health Inequalities Review (BLACHIR) led by Birmingham City Council and Lewisham City Council, academic board member. Final report   (list of academic board members, p.98)

Media coverage: BBC (report 1, report 2) BirminghamLive (report 1, report 2, report 3) EastLondonlines (report 1, report 2) The Voice (report 1, report 2)