Publications (forthcoming/conditional accept.)

[13] Macroprudential policy and housing market expectations (with Li Tang, Mitra, Xie)

European Economic Review, accepted with minor revision  SSRN                                                                       

[12] Central bank communication and house price expectations (with Carola Binder and Li Tang)

Journal of the European Economic Association, forthcoming. 

Media coverage: Central Banking. NBER wp no. 31232.                                                                                             

[11] Overconfidence in private information explains  biases in professional forecasts (with Klaus Adam and Xie)

Journal of Monetary Economics, November 2025, 103839.          

[10] Potential output pessimism and austerity in the European Union (with Kaushik Mitra)

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming.                                                            

[9] Are survey stock price forecasts anchored by fundamental forecasts? A long-run perspective (with Tang, Zhang and Zhang)

Economic Theory. Volume 79, pages 657–685, 2025. 

[8] Forecast Disagreement about Long-run Macroeconomic Relationships (with Li Tang, Renbin Zhang and Tongbin Zhang)

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, volume 200, August 2022, p. 371 - 387.

[7] Are Rational Explosive Solutions Learnable? (with Yao Yao)

Economics Letters, August 2017, volume 157, p. 62 - 66.

[6] Long-run Growth Uncertainty (with Kaushik Mitra)

Journal of Monetary Economics, May 2016, volume 79, p. 67-80. 

[5] Labor Market Dynamics with Searching Frictions and Fair Wage Considerations (with Tong Wang)

Economic Inquiry, Volume 55, Issue 3, July 2017, p. 1336--1349. [2nd-year PhD term paper]       

[4] A Note on Learning in a Credit Economy

Macroeconomic Dynamics 2016, volume 20, issue 03, p. 845-855                                                                              

[3] A Model of Housing and Credit Cycles with Imperfect Market Knowledge

European Economic Review, volume 70, August 2014, Pages 419–437. 

[2] Illusory Profitability of Technical Analysis in Emerging Foreign Exchange Markets (with Michael Schröder and Qingwei Wang) [work before PhD program]

International Journal of Forecasting, volume 30, issue2, April–June 2014, Pages 192–205.

[1] House Price Booms and the Current Account, (with Klaus Adam and Albert Marcet)

NBER Macroeconomics Annual, volume 26, 2012, p. 77 - 122 (NBER Working Paper No. 17224)

[Comment paper by Edward Glaeser (Harvard) Comment paper by Lars Peter Hansen (Chicago) Discussions] 

Media coverage: San Francisco Fed Economic letter

Government review

Birmingham and Lewisham African Caribbean Health Inequalities Review (BLACHIR) led by Birmingham City Council and Lewisham City Council, academic board member. Final report   (list of academic board members, p.98)

Media coverage: BBC (report 1, report 2) BirminghamLive (report 1, report 2, report 3) EastLondonlines (report 1, report 2) The Voice (report 1, report 2)