Work in progress

Disagreement under Imperfect Memory: Theory and Evidence (with Li Tang and Michael Weber)

• Presentations (2025 Sep - Dec): Macroeconomics workshop (Shandong University), International workshop on Experiments in Macro and Finance (Osaka University),  University of Reading, Workshop on International Macro and Finance (Macau), University of Sheffield, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Peking University HSBC, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Workshop "Expectations in Dynamic Macro Models" (University of Sydney). 

Information Treatments, Hypotheticals, and Event Studies: Comparative Estimates 

• with Carola Binder, Dimitris Georgarakos and Li Tang. Presentations (2025 Nov - ): Shandong University

Unconditional Treatment Effects in Information Provision Experiments (with Carola Binder and Li Tang)

Ballots, Budgets and Bricks: Brexit and the Polarisation of Individual Economic Behaviours

• With Davide Luca and Zhiwu Wei, paper download, revised June 2025 

• Journal of Public Economics, revise and resubmit

Sovereign debt pricing with shifting long-run growth expectations (with Liang Shi) paper, revised Aug. 2025

• European Economic Review,  revise and resubmit

Reducing Memory Biases in Belief Formation (with Li Tang and Michael Weber)

Central Bank Communication with the Polarized Public (with Michael Weber and Xie) 

•  CEPR DP , NBER wp, BFI wp, SSRN.  Media coverage: VoxEU column, BFI research brief, Financial Times (article, link), Ifo Schnelldienst, Bloomberg, Central Banking, Reuters

Perceived Political Bias of the Federal Reserve (with Michael Weber and Xie)  

• paper download, revised July 2025  BFI research brief, VoxEU column, SSRN. BFI wp no. 2024 -134, NBER wp no. 33071

• Media coverage: Central Banking, Bloomberg (article 1, article 2), Financial Times (article, link), Ifo Schnelldienst,  LinkedIn, CFO Dive, MSN, Financial post, Brookings institution, TT News, PressReader, Allnews, Yahoo (Finance, Taiwan, Hong Kong)....

Output gap estimation and monetary policy with imperfect knowledge (with Kaushik Mitra and Li Tang)

•  SSRN link   longer version

Observability and equilibrium selection in New Keynesian Models paper download, under revision

How does inflation shape house price expectations? (with Wei Cui, Xie and Y. Zhang) paper

Bank credit constraints, expectation, and firm activities: evidence from UK SMEs (with Mitra, Y. Wu, and Tianshu Zhao) paper

Learning with Data (Quasi-)Differencing  paper 

The roots and consequences of Euroscepticism: theory and evidence (with Wei and Yao) paper