Work in progress

Central bank communication and house price expectations (with Carola Binder and Li Tang)

Overconfidence in private information explains  biases in professional forecasts (with Klaus Adam and  Shihan Xie) paper

Political polarization, expectations formation, and central bank communication (with Michael Weber and Shihan Xie)

Output gap estimation and monetary policy with imperfect knowledge (with Kaushik Mitra and Li Tang)

Great or Grim? Brexit and the Polarisation of Consumer Expectations and Spending (with Davide Luca, Zhiwu Wei and Yao Yao)

Macroprudential policy and housing market expectations (with K. Mitra, L. Tang, and Shihan Xie)  SSRN 

Observability and equilibrium selection in New Keynesian Models paper download, under revision

How does inflation shape house price expectations? (with Wei Cui and Shihan Xie)

Bank credit constraints, expectation, and firm activities: evidence from UK SMEs (with Mitra, Y. Wu, and Tianshu Zhao) paper

Sovereign debt pricing with shifting long-run growth expectations (with K. Mitra and L. Shi) paper

Learning with Data (Quasi-)Differencing  paper 

The roots and consequences of Euroscepticism: theory and some new evidence (with Wei and Yao) paper available 

Publications (and forthcoming)

[10] Are survey stock price forecasts anchored by fundamental forecasts? A long-run perspective (with L. Tang, R. Zhang and T. Zhang)  SSRN  paper download. Accepted in Economic Theory. 

[9] Potential output pessimism and austerity in the European Union (with Kaushik Mitra) paper, online appendix.  Forthcoming in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

[8] Forecast Disagreement about Long-run Macroeconomic Relationships (with Li Tang, Renbin Zhang and Tongbin Zhang), Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, volume 200, August 2022, p. 371 - 387. Link to ScienceDirect 

[7] Are Rational Explosive Solutions Learnable? (with Yao Yao). Economics Letters, August 2017, volume 157, p. 62 - 66. Link to ScienceDirect

[6] Long-run Growth Uncertainty (with Kaushik Mitra). Journal of Monetary Economics, May 2016, volume 79, p. 67-80.  Link to ScienceDirect. Online Appendix

[5] Labor Market Dynamics with Searching Frictions and Fair Wage Considerations (with Tong Wang). Economic Inquiry, Volume 55, Issue 3, July 2017, p. 1336--1349. Link to published version

[4] A Note on Learning in a Credit Economy. Macroeconomic Dynamics 2016, volume 20, issue 03, p. 845-855 Link to the published version

[3] A Model of Housing and Credit Cycles with Imperfect Market Knowledge, European Economic Review, volume 70, August 2014, Pages 419–437. Link to ScienceDirect Online Appendix (Appendix, data, and Matlab replication programs are available on ScienceDirect)

[2] Illusory Profitability of Technical Analysis in Emerging Foreign Exchange Markets, (with Michael Schröder and Qingwei Wang), International Journal of Forecasting, volume 30, issue2, April–June 2014, Pages 192–205. Link to ScienceDirect

[1] House Price Booms and the Current Account, (with Klaus Adam and Albert Marcet), NBER Macroeconomics Annual, volume 26, 2012, p. 77 - 122 (NBER Working Paper No. 17224), Paper, Typo in Table 9  [Comment paper by Edward Glaeser (Harvard) Comment paper by Lars Peter Hansen (Chicago) Discussions] 


Government review

Birmingham and Lewisham African Caribbean Health Inequalities Review (BLACHIR) led by Birmingham City Council and Lewisham City Council, academic board member. Final report   (list of academic board members, p.98)

Media coverage: BBC (report 1, report 2) BirminghamLive (report 1, report 2, report 3) EastLondonlines (report 1, report 2) The Voice (report 1, report 2)