Work in progress

Belief Disagreement, Instability, and Uncertainty under Stochastic Recall 

• with Li Tang and Michael Weber,  paper download

Some general takeaways and implications:

• Expectations are not just functions of information sets; they are functions of the information people retrieve.

• Even under common information, common priors, and Bayesian updating, imperfect and stochastic recall can generate cross-sectional disagreement, within-individual belief instability, and heterogeneity in subjective uncertainty.

• Disagreement in expectations surveys may partly capture stochastic recall, not only heterogeneous information.

• Expectation formation models may benefit from incorporating a stochastic retrieval stage.

Presentations (including scheduled): Behavioral Macro workshop (NTU Singapore), Workshop "Expectations in Dynamic Macro Models" (U of Sydney), Bank of Finland, Deutsche Bundesbank (Frankfurt), CEBRA (Copenhagen), Workshop on "Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Policy" (Warsaw School of Economics), Copenhagen Business School, Universities of Bath, Reading, Sheffield, Macau, CERGE-EI (Prague), HKUST,  Peking U (NSD), Shanghai Jiaotong U, Peking U (PHBS), Nanjing Audit  U (Nanjing), Workshop on International Macro and Finance (Macau), WESEAMS (Kuala Lumpur), International workshop on Experiments in Macro and Finance (U of Osaka), First Workshop on Surveys and Experiments in Economics (China & online), BNBU (Zhuhai), SDTBU (Yantai), Macro workshop (Shandong U) 

Polarization and Belief Entrenchment Through Memory

• with Li Tang and Michael Weber, paper download

• Presentations (including scheduled): Humboldt U of Berlin 

Information Treatments, Hypotheticals, and Event Studies: Comparative Estimates 

• with Carola Binder, Dimitris Georgarakos and Li Tang.      NBER wp 

• Presentations: Yonsei U (Seoul), Shandong U (Jinan), SWUFE (Chengdu), Nanjing U (Nanjing)

Pei Kuang, Michael Weber, and Shihan Xie. Central Bank Communication with the Polarized Public

•  CEPR DP , NBER wp, BFI wp, SSRN.  Media coverage: VoxEU column, BFI research brief, Financial Times (article, link), Ifo Schnelldienst, Bloomberg, Central Banking, Reuters

• Presentations: CEPR Central Bank Communication RPN seminar series, CEBRA (Boston), Sungkyunkwan U (Seoul). 

• Presentations by co-authors (incomplete): Bank of Korea International Conference "Central Banks and the Future of Money" 

Net Zero and Inflation Expectations: the Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policies 

• with Li Tang, Yao Yao and Yuteng Zhang, paper download SSRN

Remembered Performance: Electoral Accountability under Stochastic Recall (with Li Tang) 

• SSRN download, preliminary draft

Pei Kuang, Michael Weber, and Shihan Xie. Perceived Political Bias of the Federal Reserve 

• Journal of the European Economic Association, revise and resubmit 

• paper download  BFI research brief, VoxEU column, SSRN. BFI wp no. 2024 -134, NBER wp no. 33071

• Media coverage: Central Banking, Bloomberg (article 1, article 2), Financial Times (article, link), Ifo Schnelldienst,  LinkedIn, CFO Dive, MSN, Financial post, Brookings institution, TT News, PressReader, Allnews, Yahoo (Finance, Taiwan, Hong Kong)....

• Presentations: Kiel-CEPR conference “Monetary policy after the inflation surge” (Berlin), Bank of Finland and CEPR Joint Conference on Frontiers of Monetary Economics in the 21st century: Where and Where to? (Helsinki), Korea U (Seoul).

• Presentations by coauthors (incomplete): Federal Reserve Board, Politics in Finance Conference (Georgetown University), HKU Macro workshop, St Louis Fed Applied Time Series Econometrics workshop

Output gap estimation and monetary policy with imperfect knowledge (with Kaushik Mitra and Li Tang)

•  SSRN link   longer version

• Presentations: Czech National Bank Conference on Expectations in Dynamic Macroeconomic Models (Prague), UIUC, U of Osaka, Banco de la República Central Bank Modelling workshop (Bogotá, Colombia), Bank of Albania South-Eastern European Economic Research Workshop (Tirana, Albania).

Observability and equilibrium selection in New Keynesian Models paper download, under revision

• Presentations: U Melbourne, NUS, SMU, NTU, ES Asian meeting (Hong Kong), ES European meeting (Lisbon)

Unconditional Treatment Effects in Information Provision Experiments (with Carola Binder and Li Tang)

Reducing Memory Biases in Belief Formation (with Li Tang and Michael Weber)

How does inflation shape house price expectations? (with Wei Cui, Xie and Y. Zhang) paper

Bank credit constraints, expectation, and firm activities: evidence from UK SMEs (with Mitra, Y. Wu, and Tianshu Zhao) paper

Learning with Data (Quasi-)Differencing  paper