Work in progress

Belief Disagreement, Instability, and Uncertainty under Stochastic Recall (with Li Tang and Michael Weber)

• Presentations (including scheduled): Behavioral Macro workshop (NTU Singapore), Workshop "Expectations in Dynamic Macro Models" (U of Sydney), Bank of Finland, Deutsche Bundesbank (Frankfurt), Universities of Bath, Copenhagen, Reading, Sheffield, CERGE-EI (Prague), HKUST,  Peking U (NSD), Shanghai Jiaotong U, Peking U (PHBS), Yonsei U (Seoul), Nanjing Audit  U (Nanjing), Workshop on International Macro and Finance (Macau), WESEAMS (Kuala Lumpur), International workshop on Experiments in Macro and Finance (U of Osaka),  Sungkyunkwan U (Seoul), First Workshop on Surveys and Experiments in Economics (China & online), BNBU (Zhuhai), SDTBU (Yantai), Macro workshop (Shandong U) 

• Previous titles used in many presentations: "Belief Disagreement and Instability under Stochastic Recall" and "Disagreement under Imperfect Memory: Theory and Evidence"

Information Treatments, Hypotheticals, and Event Studies: Comparative Estimates 

• with Carola Binder, Dimitris Georgarakos and Li Tang. Presentations (2025 Nov - ): Shandong University

Unconditional Treatment Effects in Information Provision Experiments (with Carola Binder and Li Tang)

Pei Kuang, Michael Weber and Xie. Central Bank Communication with the Polarized Public

•  CEPR DP , NBER wp, BFI wp, SSRN.  Media coverage: VoxEU column, BFI research brief, Financial Times (article, link), Ifo Schnelldienst, Bloomberg, Central Banking, Reuters

Ballots, Budgets and Bricks: Brexit and the Polarisation of Individual Economic Behaviours

• With Davide Luca and Zhiwu Wei, paper download 

• Journal of Public Economics, revise and resubmit

Pei Kuang, Michael Weber and Xie. Perceived Political Bias of the Federal Reserve  

• paper download  BFI research brief, VoxEU column, SSRN. BFI wp no. 2024 -134, NBER wp no. 33071

• Media coverage: Central Banking, Bloomberg (article 1, article 2), Financial Times (article, link), Ifo Schnelldienst,  LinkedIn, CFO Dive, MSN, Financial post, Brookings institution, TT News, PressReader, Allnews, Yahoo (Finance, Taiwan, Hong Kong)....

Reducing Memory Biases in Belief Formation (with Li Tang and Michael Weber)

Output gap estimation and monetary policy with imperfect knowledge (with Kaushik Mitra and Li Tang)

•  SSRN link   longer version

Observability and equilibrium selection in New Keynesian Models paper download, under revision

How does inflation shape house price expectations? (with Wei Cui, Xie and Y. Zhang) paper

Bank credit constraints, expectation, and firm activities: evidence from UK SMEs (with Mitra, Y. Wu, and Tianshu Zhao) paper

Learning with Data (Quasi-)Differencing  paper 

The roots and consequences of Euroscepticism: theory and evidence (with Wei) paper