Pei Kuang (旷裴) - Research

Pei Kuang (旷裴)

Work in progress

Disagreement under Imperfect Memory: Theory and Evidence (with Li Tang and Michael Weber)

Presentations (2025 Sep - Dec): Macroeconomics workshop (Shandong University), International workshop on Experiments in Macro and Finance (Osaka University), Workshop on International Macro and Finance (Macau), University of Sheffield, University of Reading, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Peking University HSBC, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

Information Treatments, Hypotheticals, and Event Studies: Comparative Estimates

with Carola Binder, Dimitris Georgarakos and Li Tang. Presentations: Shandong University

Unconditional Treatment Effects in Information Provision Experiments (with Carola Binder and Li Tang)

Central Bank Communication with the Polarized Public (with Michael Weber and Shihan Xie)

CEPR DP , NBER wp, BFI wp, SSRN. Media coverage: VoxEU column, BFI research brief, Financial Times (article, link), Ifo Schnelldienst, Bloomberg, Central Banking, Reuters

Perceived Political Bias of the Federal Reserve (with Michael Weber and Shihan Xie)

paper download, revised July 2025 BFI research brief, VoxEU column, SSRN. BFI wp no. 2024 -134, NBER wp no. 33071
Media coverage: Central Banking, Bloomberg (article 1, article 2), Financial Times (article, link), Ifo Schnelldienst, LinkedIn,

CFO Dive, MSN, Financial post, Brookings institution, TT News, PressReader, Allnews, Yahoo (Finance, Taiwan, Hong Kong)....

Ballots, Budgets and Bricks: Brexit and the Polarisation of Individual Economic Behaviours

With Davide Luca and Zhiwu Wei, paper download, revised June 2025

Output gap estimation and monetary policy with imperfect knowledge (with Kaushik Mitra and Li Tang)

SSRN link longer version

Observability and equilibrium selection in New Keynesian Models paper download, under revision

How does inflation shape house price expectations? (with Wei Cui, S. Xie and Y. Zhang) paper

Bank credit constraints, expectation, and firm activities: evidence from UK SMEs (with Mitra, Y. Wu, and Tianshu Zhao) paper

Learning with Data (Quasi-)Differencing paper

Sovereign debt pricing with shifting long-run growth expectations (with Liang Shi) paper, revised Aug. 2025

Revise and resubmit, European Economic Review

The roots and consequences of Euroscepticism: theory and some new evidence (with Wei and Yao) paper

Publications (and forthcoming)

[13] Macroprudential policy and housing market expectations (with Li Tang, Mitra, Xie). European Economic Review, accepted with minor revision SSRN, revised Aug. 2025

[12] Central bank communication and house price expectations (with Carola Binder and Li Tang). Journal of the European Economic Association, forthcoming. paper download NBER wp no. 31232. Media coverage: Central Banking

[11] Overconfidence in private information explains biases in professional forecasts (with Klaus Adam and Xie) Journal of Monetary Economics, forthcoming. paper download.

[10] Potential output pessimism and austerity in the European Union (with Kaushik Mitra) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming. Online published version (open access).

[9] Are survey stock price forecasts anchored by fundamental forecasts? A long-run perspective (with L. Tang, R. Zhang and T. Zhang) Economic Theory. Volume 79, pages 657–685, 2025. Published version (open access) SSRN (with Online Appendix).

[8] Forecast Disagreement about Long-run Macroeconomic Relationships (with Li Tang, Renbin Zhang and Tongbin Zhang), Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, volume 200, August 2022, p. 371 - 387. SSRN Link to ScienceDirect

[7] Are Rational Explosive Solutions Learnable? (with Yao Yao). Economics Letters, August 2017, volume 157, p. 62 - 66. Link to ScienceDirect

[6] Long-run Growth Uncertainty (with Kaushik Mitra). Journal of Monetary Economics, May 2016, volume 79, p. 67-80. Link to ScienceDirect. Online Appendix

[5] Labor Market Dynamics with Searching Frictions and Fair Wage Considerations (with Tong Wang). Economic Inquiry, Volume 55, Issue 3, July 2017, p. 1336--1349. Link to published version

[4] A Note on Learning in a Credit Economy. Macroeconomic Dynamics 2016, volume 20, issue 03, p. 845-855 Link to the published version

[3] A Model of Housing and Credit Cycles with Imperfect Market Knowledge, European Economic Review, volume 70, August 2014, Pages 419–437. Link to ScienceDirect Online Appendix (Appendix, data, and Matlab replication programs are available on ScienceDirect)

[2] Illusory Profitability of Technical Analysis in Emerging Foreign Exchange Markets, (with Michael Schröder and Qingwei Wang), International Journal of Forecasting, volume 30, issue2, April–June 2014, Pages 192–205. Link to ScienceDirect

[1] House Price Booms and the Current Account, (with Klaus Adam and Albert Marcet), NBER Macroeconomics Annual, volume 26, 2012, p. 77 - 122 (NBER Working Paper No. 17224), Paper, Typo in Table 9 [Comment paper by Edward Glaeser (Harvard) Comment paper by Lars Peter Hansen (Chicago) Discussions] Media coverage: San Francisco Fed Economic letter

Government review

Birmingham and Lewisham African Caribbean Health Inequalities Review (BLACHIR) led by Birmingham City Council and Lewisham City Council, academic board member. Final report (list of academic board members, p.98)

Media coverage: BBC (report 1, report 2) BirminghamLive (report 1, report 2, report 3) EastLondonlines (report 1, report 2) The Voice (report 1, report 2)

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