Welcome to the Personal Website for Paul Mizen

Bio

I am Professor of Monetary Economics and Director of the Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics, University of Nottingham and Chairman and Trustee of the Money Macroeconomic and Finance Society. I have previously taught in the Economics Departments of the University of Vienna, the European University Institute, Florence and Princeton University.

My research focuses on the interaction between monetary policy, corporate finance, real activity and productivity and I have contributed evidence to the Bank of England, COBRA, 10 Downing St and Government Departments such as HM Treasury, BEIS, Home Office and ONS. I have published 7 books and more than 100 articles on various aspects of economics (listed in Researchgate, Repec IDEAS and Google Scholar Cites). I am also on Linkedin.

I am currently engaged in a major research project with the Bank of England and Nick Bloom of Stanford University on economic uncertainty (Decision Maker Panel) and economic uncertainty. The project has recruited over 8,000 firms and recruited over 120 researchers supported by £1.3m from various sources including the ESRC, the Bank of England, the University of Nottingham and Stanford University. With respect to Brexit, the results show that greater economic uncertainty has subdued investment in the UK particularly among the most productive of UK firms. The results have been used extensively by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee including in the official assessment of the Withdrawal Agreement presented to Parliament (Nov 2018). With respect to Covid, there has been the largest increase in economic uncertainty by any metric since measurement began, and the effects on businesses are only just being investigated. The findings to date have been reported in The Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Sunday Times, The Times, The Independent, The Telegraph, The Guardian, The Economist and Harvard Business Review. Visit the DMP website.

Our novel approach to surveys was embedded in a second large research project delivering the Management and Expectations Survey of 25,000 UK firms in 2017 by the Office for National Statistics, in collaboration with Nick Bloom (Stanford) and John van Reenen (MIT) and ESCoE. The results were used to inform a 2018 call for evidence for the British Productivity Review. The ESRC has awarded £1,1m in 2019 to conduct a second wave and analysis of the results which have revealed relationships between management practices and productivity in the UK. A report on the progress of the ESCoE project is here.

A joint Bank of England-ONS-UKRI Covid-19 grant for £1.1m has been awarded in 2020 to address the The Impact of Covid-19 on UK Businesses.

In connection with my work on DMP and MES I was appointed as a Fellow of the Office for National Statistics from September 2018, Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts from January 2019, and Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences from March 2019.

The Economic Experts Working Group at the ONS draws on the expertise of the ONS Fellows in many areas. In the recent Covid-19 disruption new approaches to National Accounts, Prices and the Labour Market have been required, summarised by Deputy National Statistician Jonathan Athow (see blog).

Previously I was a consultant and visiting scholar to the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bundesbank, the European Central Bank, the Bank for International Settlements, the International Monetary Fund and a number of other central banks and universities. I was invited to take up the first “OeNB Anniversary Visiting Professorship” celebrating 200th anniversary of the foundation of the Austrian central bank (OeNB) and the 650th anniversary of the foundation of the University of Vienna.

For more see the pages (left) about my research, policy impact, visiting positions, seminars and discussions, roles in the MMF and CFCM and teaching.

My current CV is here.

Current Work

A joint Bank of England-ONS-UKRI Covid-19 grant for £1.1m has been awarded to address The Impact of Covid-19 on UK Businesses. Some of our first results are here and reasons why uncertainty is so damaging for the UK economy here. We also have a NBER working paper and Bank of England working paper showing how uncertain businesses are in the UK and US economies.

Working with the D2N2 Local Enterprise Partnership to understand the local impact of Covid on businesses in the East Midlands, and provide a data solution that could be developed more widely to provide local planning with intelligence on business responses.

A new project underway seeks to develop the Nottingham Productivity Network led by Kneller (UoN Productivity Champion) and funded initially by the ESRC IAA into an Interdisciplinary Research Cluster led by Richard Kneller, Cher Li and Paul Mizen. This is a group of over 80 academic and non-academic staff that work on productivity related issues, drawn from across the Social Sciences, Arts, Engineering, Science and Medicine and Health Sciences in the East and West Midlands. This is linked to the ESRC ProPEL Evidence Hub, supported by ESRC with £1.5 million as part of the UK Research and Innovation’s (UKRI) Strategic Priorities Fund.

The ESRC awarded £1,102,171 to conduct a second wave and analysis of the results.of a Management and Expectations Survey with the Office for National Statistics Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence. The original survey was part of a successful 2017 NIESR bid in collaboration with Nick Bloom (Stanford), Tatsuro Senga (QMUL) and Phil Wales (ONS). The first wave of the survey of 25,000 firms has been collected, cleaned and is under analysis and was presented at the ESCoE Economic Measurement conference 2019 by Phil Wales here. The results have been used to inform the Call for Evidence in the British Productivity Review. The latest ESCoE working paper is here.

The Decision Maker Panel has received £1.3m funding from various sources including the ESRC, the Bank of England, the University of Nottingham and Stanford University. I am Principal Investigator (PI) on this project 2017-2020 with Professor Nick Bloom. It is being used to inform the Bank of England, HM Treasury and the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy about economic uncertainty and Brexit. The presentation to ESCoE Economic Measurement 2018 conference by Nick Bloom is here, and the Becker-Friedman Institute conference presentation, Chicago, October 2018 is here. A full description is available in Fiscal Studies. We submitted evidence to the British Productivity Review.

Reviewing the interest rate setting behaviour of UK banks after the financial crisis. In work with the Bank of England I have explored the impact of funding environment and competition on rate setting for fixed rate mortgages and deposits by the big six UK banks. We find transfer pricing inside each bank links individual bank funding costs to retail rates but competition limits banks’ ability to drive retail rates away from the market average.

Central banks have been puzzled why bank lending rates diverged from policy rates. In recent work with the Bank for International Settlements I explain why this is the case.In Ireland the Finance Minister, Michael Noonan, scheduled meetings with the heads of banks over this very issue - see more on my impact page (left).

My work using bond market spreads to predict recessions (Economic Journal 2016) shows financial markets often anticipate changes in real activity up to two years ahead. More work on the CDS market shows similar characteristics, and links the widening of spreads to credit events and changes in market liquidity.


News

2020 Invited to be a member of the Analytics Group of the D2N2 Local Enterprise Partnership, feeding knowledge of Covid impact and response to the D2N2 Board and city and county councils.

2020 UKRI has awarded £800,000 to support research into the business impact of Covid-19, which is a joint project with Bank of England and the Office for National Statistics.

International Central Banking Course for central bankers from the European System of Central Banks and other central banks (venue:Central Bank of Malta). More details here.

2019 Kevin Lee and Paul Mizen have been awarded £132,600 by ONS-ESCoE to fund a project on Using Firm-Level Surveys to Understand Industrial and Regional Capacity, Investment, Productivity and Output Growth.

2019 ESRC has awarded £1,102,171 to conduct a second wave and analyse the results of a Management and Expectations Survey with the Office for National Statistics Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, Nick Bloom (Stanford) and John van Reenen (MIT).

2018 DMP evidence used extensively by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee including the official assessment of the Withdrawal Agreement presented to Parliament (Nov 2018) and in the Agents' Survey on Preparations for EU Withdrawal presented to Parliament (Dec 2018).

2018 Invited to join the Expert Group, ifo World Economic Survey (WES), Munich. ifo surveys have been conducted since 1949 and WES began in 1981. It is one of the longest running surveys of global economic conditions.

2018 Presentations of the DMP evidence on misallocation due to Brexit uncertainty at the FRB Philadelphia, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute, International Monetary Fund and Becker Friedman Institute, University of Chicago.

2018 Presentation MMF Special Session at the Royal Economic Society on the DMP evidence base for effects of Brexit on the UK economy.

2018 Presentation at the Royal Economic Society on ONS Management and Expectations Survey.

2018 A new edited book on Macroprudential Policy and Practice was published by Cambridge University Press, this book provides an assessment of the effectiveness of macroprudential instruments used by central banks around the world.

2017 A second launch event for the Decision Maker Panel attended by about 80 senior business executives took place on 22 November 2017 at the Bank of England. Chief Economist Andrew Haldane gave introductory remarks on the timeliness of the Decision Maker Panel project.

2017 A launch event for the Decision Maker Panel attended by about 100 senior business executives took place on 6 November 2017 at Jubilee Conference Centre, University of Nottingham. Deputy Governor Sir Dave Ramsden discussed the role of business surveys in monetary policymaking.

2017 The Decision Maker Panel has received £1.3m funding from various sources including the ESRC, the Bank of England, the University of Nottingham and Stanford University. I will act at Principal Investigator (PI) on this project 2017-2020.

2016 As part of a team involving Professor Nick Bloom, the Bank of England and HM Treasury I have set up a Decision Maker Panel to review the effect of current economic uncertainty on UK firms investment, growth, sales, and cost of finance. Ben Broadbent, Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy has referred to this work here. It has been supported by the ESRC Nottingham Impact Accelerator.

2016 Funded by the Office for National Statistics Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, as CI on successful NIESR bid to develop a survey on management and uncertainty. We are now collaborating with Nick Bloom (Stanford), Tatsuro Senga (QMUL) and Phil Wales (ONS) to roll out an ONS-led statutory survey of 25,000 firms in mid 2017.

2016 Invited to be the Inaugural OeNB Visiting Professor at the University of Vienna established to mark the 650th anniversary of the University of Vienna and the 200th anniversary of the Austrian National Bank (OeNB)).