Welcome to the Personal Website for Paul Mizen

Bio

I am Professor of Monetary Economics and Director of the Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics, University of Nottingham and Chairman of the Money Macroeconomic and Finance Research Group. I have previously taught in the Economics Departments of the University of Vienna, the European University Institute, Florence and Princeton University.

My research focuses on the interaction between monetary policy, corporate finance and banking; I have published 7 books and more than 100 articles on various aspects of monetary economics (listed in Researchgate, Repec IDEAS and Google Scholar Cites). I am currently engaged in a major research project with the Bank of England and Nick Bloom of Stanford University on economic uncertainty (Decision Maker Panel) and Brexit and head up a 50 strong team of researchers supported by the ESRC. The findings to date have been reported in The Financial Times, The Sunday Times,  The Times, The Independent, The Guardian and Harvard Business Review. The results have been used extensively by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee including in the official assessment of the Withdrawal Agreement presented to Parliament (Nov 2018). Our novel approach to surveys was embedded in a Management and Expectations Survey in 2017 by the Office for National Statistics, the results of which were used to inform a 2018 call for evidence for the British Productivity Review. The ESRC has awarded £1,102,171 to conduct a second wave and analyse the results.

I have also been a consultant and visiting scholar to the Federal Reserve, the  Bank of England, the Bundesbank, the European Central Bank, the Bank for International Settlements, the International Monetary Fund and a number of other central banks and universities. I am also on Linkedin.

In connection with my work on DMP and MES I was appointed as a Fellow of the Office for National Statistics from September 2018, Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts from January 2019, and Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences from March 2019. 

For more see the pages (left) about my research, policy impact, visiting positions, seminars and discussions, roles in the MMF and CFCM and teaching.

My current CV is here.

Recent Work

In August 2018 a new edited book on Macroprudential Policy and Practice was published by Cambridge University Press, this book provides an assessment of the effectiveness of macroprudential instruments used by central banks around the world. 

The Decision Maker Panel has received £1.3m funding from various sources including the ESRC, the Bank of England, the University of Nottingham and Stanford University. I am Principal Investigator (PI) on this project 2017-2020 with  Professor Nick Bloom. It is being used to inform the Bank of EnglandHM Treasury and the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy about economic uncertainty and Brexit. The presentation to ESCoE Economic Measurement 2018 conference by Nick Bloom is here, and the Becker-Friedman Institute conference presentation, Chicago, October 2018 is here. A full description is available in Fiscal Studies. We submitted evidence to the British Productivity Review.

Work on a Management and Expectations Survey with the Office for National Statistics Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, was part of a successful 2017 NIESR bid in collaboration with Nick Bloom (Stanford),  Tatsuro Senga (QMUL) and  Phil Wales (ONS). The first wave of the survey of 25,000 firms has been collected, cleaned and is under analysis. A recent presentation to ESCoE Economic Measurement conference by Phil Wales is hereThe results have been used to inform the Call for Evidence in the British Productivity Review. The latest ESCoE working paper is here. The ESRC has awarded £1,102,171 to conduct a second wave and analyse the results. 

Reviewing the interest rate setting behaviour of UK banks after the financial crisis. In work with the Bank of England I have explored the impact of funding environment and competition on rate setting for fixed rate mortgages and deposits by the big six UK banks. We find transfer pricing inside each bank links individual bank funding costs to retail rates but competition limits banks’ ability to drive retail rates away from the market average.

Central banks have been puzzled why bank lending rates diverged from policy rates. In recent work with the Bank for International Settlements I explain why this is the case.
In Ireland the Finance Minister, Michael Noonan, scheduled meetings with the heads of banks over this very issue - see more on my impact page (left).

My work using bond market spreads to predict recessions (Economic Journal 2016) shows financial markets often anticipate changes in real activity up to two years ahead. More work on the CDS market shows similar characteristics, and links the widening of spreads to credit events and changes in market liquidity. 


News

2019 Kevin Lee and Paul Mizen have been awarded £132,600 by ONS-ESCoE to fund a project on Using Firm-Level Surveys to Understand Industrial and Regional Capacity, Investment, Productivity and Output Growth

2019 ESRC has awarded £1,102,171 to conduct a second wave and analyse the results of a Management and Expectations Survey with the Office for National Statistics Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, Nick Bloom (Stanford) and John van Reenen (MIT).  

2018 DMP evidence used extensively by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee including the official assessment of the Withdrawal Agreement presented to Parliament (Nov 2018) and in the Agents' Survey on Preparations for EU Withdrawal presented to Parliament (Dec 2018).

2018 Invited to join the Expert Group, ifo World Economic Survey (WES), Munich. ifo surveys have been conducted since 1949 and WES began in 1981. It is one of the longest running surveys of global economic conditions.   

2018 Presentations of the DMP evidence on misallocation due to Brexit uncertainty at the FRB Philadelphia, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute, International Monetary Fund and Becker Friedman Institute, University of Chicago. 

2018 Presentation MMF Special Session at the Royal Economic Society on the DMP evidence base for effects of Brexit on the UK economy

2018 Presentation at the Royal Economic Society on ONS Management and Expectations Survey.

2017 A second launch event for the Decision Maker Panel attended by about 80 senior business executives took place on 22 November 2017 at the Bank of England. Chief Economist Andrew Haldane gave introductory remarks on the timeliness of the Decision Maker Panel project.  

2017 A launch event for the Decision Maker Panel attended by about 100 senior business executives took place on 6 November 2017 at Jubilee Conference Centre, University of Nottingham. Deputy Governor Sir Dave Ramsden discussed the role of business surveys in monetary policymaking. 

2017 The Decision Maker Panel has received £1.3m funding from various sources including the ESRC, the Bank of England, the University of Nottingham and Stanford University. I will act at Principal Investigator (PI) on this project 2017-2020. 

2016 As part of a team involving Professor Nick Bloom, the Bank of England and HM Treasury I have set up a Decision Maker Panel to review the effect of current economic uncertainty on UK firms investment, growth, sales, and cost of finance. Ben Broadbent, Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy has referred to this work here. It has been supported by the ESRC Nottingham Impact Accelerator.

2016 Funded by the Office for National Statistics Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, as CI on successful NIESR  bid to develop a survey on management and uncertainty. We are now collaborating with Nick Bloom (Stanford),  Tatsuro Senga (QMUL) and  Phil Wales (ONS) to roll out an ONS-led statutory survey of 25,000 firms in mid 2017.

2016   Invited to be the Inaugural OeNB Visiting Professor at the University of Vienna established to mark the 650th anniversary  of the University of Vienna and the 200th anniversary of the Austrian National Bank (OeNB)).



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