Research
Current Work
I have made an outstanding contribution to research and scholarship through 7 books and 120 articles, multiple top 10 downloads in SSRN, published in 4* journals. I have contributed actively to REF2008, REF2014 and REF2021 with journal papers and impact case studies (ICS). In REF2021 we infer that my Impact Case Study was rated 4* 'world leading' by the review panel.
The ESRC selected my research from 350 entrants as runner-up in the Celebrating Impact Prize Finals in 2021 at the Royal Society. I won the University of Nottingham Best Policy Initiative Prize 2019. The underpinning research has appeared in 4* journals and the prestigious NBER working paper series. Two NBER papers were selected by Prof Jim Poterba (Harvard) to feature in The NBER Digest and written up in Sunday Times and the Financial Times. I have fostered research collaborations with Chicago Booth, Imperial, Kings, LSE, MIT, Northwestern, Stanford; Bank of England, Bank for International Settlements, Banque de France. Deutsche Bundesbank, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and the International Monetary Fund..
I am currently engaged in three major research projects using data we gather from three unique surveys:
Decision Maker Panel. Jointly with the Bank of England and Nick Bloom of Stanford University we aim to gather survey data on economic uncertainty, expectations and Brexit. I head up a 50 strong team of researchers supported by the ESRC. and other contributing institutions supported by c£3.1m grants and in-kind contributions. The survey has been extensively referenced in the minutes of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Monetary Policy Report, Quarterly Bulletin, and reports to the Treasury Select Committee in Parliament. The results have been used extensively by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee including in the official assessment of the Withdrawal Agreement presented to Parliament (Nov 2018).The findings to date have been reported in The Financial Times, The Sunday Times, The Times, The Independent, The Guardian, the Harvard Business Review and contributed to the Jackson Hole Symposium 2020.
Management and Expectations Survey. Our novel approach to surveys was embedded in a Management and Expectations Survey in 2017 in collaboration with John van Reenen and Nick Bloom and the Office for National Statistics. The results of the MES survey were used to inform a 2018 call for evidence by BEIS and HM Treasury relating to the British Productivity Review. Data on UK productivity have been shared with the Industrial Strategy Council Chair, Andrew Haldane. The ESRC has awarded £1,102,171 in 2019 to conduct a second wave and enable analysis of the results. Evidence suggests that firms that make greater use of management practices are more productive than firms that do not. More details can be found in a summary report here. In June 2022 HM Treasury has approved £250,000 for funding MES 2023.
Working From Home (WFH) Survey. Launched in December 2020. We reveal attitudes towards working from home have changed substantially since the start of the pandemic. Our survey of 2,500 working adults per month in the UK since December 2020 show a huge increase in the UK labour force working from home during Covid-19 and the majority would like to continue to work from home 2-3 days per week post-COVID. The Productivity Institute has funded further work on 'potential capital' with Jonathan Haskel and Janice Eberly.
Working Papers
Remote Working and the New Geography of Local Service Spending [with Gianni De Fraja, Jesse Matheson, James Rockey and Shivani Taneja} CEPR discussion paper DP17431, July 2022.
“Potential Capital”, Working From Home and Economic Resilience [with Janice Eberly and Jonathan Haskel] NBER Working Paper 29431. NBER Digest ‘At-Home Capital’ Attenuated COVID-Related Output Losses. Sunday Times (David Smith). Financial Times (Tim Harford) The lesson humble sea urchins offer about economic resilience VoxEU blog
Do Well Managed Firms Make Better Forecasts? [with Nicholas Bloom, Takafumi Kawakubo, Charlotte Meng, Paul Mizen, Rebecca Riley, Tatsuro Senga & John Van Reenen] NBER Working paper No 29591 December 2021 also CEP working paper "Want better forecasts? Start with better management" MIT Sloan Blog.
The Impact of Brexit on UK Firms [with Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Pawel Smietanka, Greg Thwaites] Bank of England Staff Working Paper, No. 818, August 2019. NBER working paper No 26218, September 2019.. 'Brexit is Already Affecting UK Firms' Harvard Business Review, March 2019
‘Growing Pension Deficits and the Expenditure Decisions of UK Companies’ [with Philip Bunn and Pawel Smietanka] Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 714, February 2018.
Papers (R&R)
Published Papers (2000 - date)
The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity [with Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Pawel Smietanka, Greg Thwaites] NBER Working Paper 28233, December 2020; Bank of England Staff Working Paper, No. 900, December 2020. Review of Economics and Statistics forthcoming
'The Impact of Unconventional Policies on Retail Lending and Deposit Rates in the Euro Area' [with Boris Hofmann, Anamaria Illes, and Marco Lombardi'] Journal of International Money and Finance 2022
Original Sin in Corporate Finance: New Evidence from Asian Bond Issuers in Onshore and Offshore Markets [with Frank Packer, Eli Remolona, Serafeim Tsoukas] Journal of International Money and Finance 2021
Impulse Response Analysis in Conditional Quantile Models with an Application to Monetary Policy [with Tae-Hwan Kim and Dong Jin Lee] Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 127(C).2021
Economic Uncertainty Before and During The COVID-19 Pandemic [with Dave Altig, Scott Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven J. Davis, Julia Leather, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Nicholas Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka, Gregory Thwaites] Journal of Public Economics, 191, 1-19, November 2020 and NBER Working Paper 27418, June 2020:
‘Brexit and Uncertainty: Insights from the Decision Maker Panel’ [with Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Pawel Smietanka, Greg Thwaites, and Garry Young] Fiscal Studies, 39(4), 555-580: Special Issue on Brexit: New Evidence and Policy Perspectives, December 2018. Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 780, January 2019.
‘Foreign Currency Borrowing, Exports and Firm Performance: Evidence from a Currency Crisis’ [with Spiros Bougheas, Hosung Lim, Simona Mateut and Cihan Yalcin] European Journal of Finance, 24, 1649-1671, January 2018.
‘The Open Economy Balance Sheet Channel and the Exporting Decisions of Firms: Evidence from the Brazilian Crisis of 1999’ [with Spiros Bougheas and Simone Silva] Oxford Economic Papers 67, 1096-1122.
‘Bond Spreads as Predictors of Economic Activity in Eight European Economies’ [with Michael Bleaney and Veronica Veleanu] Economic Journal, 126, 2257-2291, December 2016 and CFCM working paper No12/11.
’What Promotes Greater Use of the Corporate Bond Market? A Study of the Issuance Behaviour of Firms in Asia’ [with Serafeim Tsoukas], Oxford Economic Papers, 66, 227-253 January 2014 and HKIMR Working Paper No.18/2010,
‘How Do Anticipated Changesto Short-term Market Rates Influence Banks' Retail Interest Rates? Evidencefrom the Four Major Euro Area Economies’ [with Anindya Banerjee and Victor Bystrov] Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 45, 1375-1414, October 2013 and Banque de France working paper No. 361, February 2012,
‘The Response of the External Finance Premium in Asian Corporate BondMarkets to Financial Characteristics, Financial Constraints and Two FinancialCrises’ [with Serafeim Tsoukas] Journal of Banking and Finance 36, 3048-3059, November 2012, and HKIMR Working Paper No. 14/2008, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
‘Monetary Information and Monetary Policy Decisions: Evidence from theEuroarea and the UK’, [with Thanaset Chevapatrakul and Tae-Hwan Kim] Journal of Macroeconomics, 34, 326-341, June 2012
‘Forecasting US Bond Default Ratings Allowing for Previous and InitialState Dependence in an Ordered Probit Model’ [with Serafeim Tsoukas] International Journal of Forecasting, 28, 273–287, Jan-Mar 2012.
‘Estimates of Monetary Reaction Functions in Japan at Near Zero Interest Rates’, [with Tae-Hwan Kim] Economics Letters 106(1), pp 57-60, January 2010.
‘The Taylor Principle and Monetary Policy Approaching a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Rates: Quantile Regression Results for the United States and Japan’ [with Tae-Hwan Kim and Thanaset Chevapatrakul], Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 41(8), pp. 1705-23, December 2009.
‘What Can We Learn from Central Bankers' Words? Some Nonparametric Tests for the ECB’ Economics Letters, 103(1), pp. 29-32, April 2009.
‘Corporate Trade Credit and Inventories: New Evidence of a Tradeoff fromAccounts Payable and Receivable’ [with Spiros Bougheas and Simona Mateut] Journal of Banking and Finance 33, pp. 300–307, February 2009.
‘The Credit Crunch of 2007-08: A Discussion of the Background, MarketReactions and Policy Responses’ Federal Reserve Bank St Louis Economic Review, 90(5), pp. 531-67, September/October 2008.
‘The Relationship between RPV and Inflation: Evidence on Functional Forms with Implications for Monetary Policy’ [with David Fielding] Economica 75 (297), pp. 22-38, February 2008.
‘ForecastingChanges in UK Interest Rates’, [with Tae-Hwan Kim and Thanaset Chevapatrakul] Journal of Forecasting, 27(1), pp. 53-74, January 2008.
‘RelativePrice Variability, Inflation and the Cost-Price Markup: Systems Estimation forthe United States and the United Kingdom’ [with Anindya Banerjee and Bill Russell] Economic Modelling, 24, pp. 82–100, January 2007
‘A Re-interpretation of the Linear-Quadratic Model when Inventoriesand Sales are Polynomially Cointegrated’ [with Anindya Banerjee] Journal of Applied Econometrics, 21, pp. 1249–1264, December 2006
‘Trade Credit,Bank Lending and Monetary Policy Transmission’, [with Spiros Bougheas and Simona Mateut] European Economic Review, 50, pp 603-29, April 2006.
‘Access toExternal Finance: Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Firm-SpecificCharacteristics’ [with Spiros Bougheas and Cihan Yalcin, University of Nottingham] Journal of Banking and Finance 30(1), pp199-227, January 2006
‘Corporate Investmentand Cash Flow Sensitivity: What Drives the Relationship?’ [with Philip Vermeulen] European Central Bank working paper 485, May 2005.
‘Other FinancialCorporations: Cinderella or Ugly Sister of Empirical Monetary Economics’, [with Alec Chrystal] International Journal of Finance and Economics 10, 63-80, February 2005; also Bank of England Working Paper, No. 151, December 2001.
‘A DynamicModel of Money, Credit and Consumptionfor the Household Sector’ [with Alec Chrystal] Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 37, pp. 119-144, February 2005; also Bank of England Working Paper, No. 134, May 2001.
‘Interest Rate Pass Throughin the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: UKBanks’ and Building Societies’ Retail Rates’ [with Boris Hofmann] Economica, 71, pp. 99-125, February 2004.
‘Money, Credit and Investment in the UK Industrial and Commercial Companies Sector’, [with Andrew Brigden] Manchester School, 72(1), pp. 72-99, January 2004; also Bank of England Working Paper, No. 100, September 1999
‘The EmpiricalRelationship between UK Net Corporate Borrowing and Stockbuilding’ Oxford Economic Papers , 55(2), pp. 287-313, April 2003.
‘Modelling Credit inthe Transmission Mechanism of the United Kingdom’ [with K. Alec Chrystal] Journal of Banking and Finance 26(11), pp. 2131-2154, November 2002.
‘Seigniorage Revenue and Self-Fulfilling Crises’ [with David Fielding], Journal of Development Economics, 65, pp. 81-93, June 2001.
‘A Cross CountryPanel Analysis of Currency Substitution and Trade’, [with Chris Milner and Eric Pentecost], Economic Inquiry , 38(2) pp. 206-217, April 2000.
‘Relative PriceVariability and Inflation in Europe’ [with David Fielding], Economica, 67(1), No. 265, pp. 57-78, February 2000.
Selected Publications (1992- 1999)
‘Understanding theDisinflations in Australia, Canada and New Zealand using Evidence from SmoothTransition Analysis’, [with Steve Leybourne] Journal of International Money and Finance 18(5), pp. 799-816, October 1999.
‘Can Foreign ExchangeDeposits Prop Up a Collapsing Exchange Rate Regime?’, Journal of Development Economics, 58, 2 , pp. 553-562 , April 1999.
‘Mean Reversion ofReal Exchange Rates in High-Inflation Countries’ [with Mike Bleaney and Steve Leybourne], Southern Economic Journal, 65(4) pp. 839-854, March 1999.
‘Inflation Targeting: What Can the ECB Learn from the Recent Experience of the Bank of England?’, [with Mike Artis and Zenon Kontolemis], Economic Journal, 108, pp. 1810-25, November 1998.
‘Credibility andDisinflation in the European Monetary System’ [with Mike Bleaney], Economic Journal, 107, pp. 1751-67, November 1997.
‘Microfoundations fora Stable Money Demand Function’, Economic Journal, 107, pp.1202-1212, July 1997.
‘Investment, Outputand Interest Rate Policy when Capital is Mobile’, [with David Fielding] Economic Journal, 107, pp. 431-440, April 1997.
‘Evaluating theEmpirical Evidence for Currency Substitution: A Case Study of the Demand forSterling in Europe’, [with Eric Pentecost], Economic Journal, 104, pp. 1057-69, September 1994.
‘Should Buffer Stock Theorists be Broad or Narrow Minded? Some Answers from Aggregate UK Data 1966-1989’, Manchester School, 60(4), pp 403-418, December 1992.