Martin Halla - Unpublished papers

Unpublished papers

Pre-Booked Vaccination Appointments as a Nudge: Evidence from a Nationwide Intervention

with Jakob Möller (WU Vienna), and Tobias Thomas (U Graz)

We study the effect of pre-booked COVID-19 vaccination appointments using a nationwide campaign in Austria. Leveraging administrative microdata on more than 450{,}000 initially unvaccinated adults, we exploit cross-state variation in program participation and staggered appointment timing in a difference-in-differences design. Pre-booked appointments increase vaccination on the appointment day by 0.8–1.2 percentage points (8–12 per 1{,}000), with no evidence of intertemporal substitution. Effects are larger for socio-economically disadvantaged individuals and substantially weaker in areas with stronger vaccine skepticism. The findings suggest that behavioral interventions are effective when low uptake reflects frictions, but have limited impact when driven by entrenched skepticism.

Paper download: link to latest version [slides]
- Status: submitted to a journal
- Media:
- X/Twitter:

Reintegrating Older Long-Term Unemployed Workers: The Impact of Temporary Job Guarantees

with Alexander Ahammer (JKU Linz), Pia Heckl (ifo Institute), and Rudolf Winter-Ebmer (JKU Linz)

Long-term unemployment among older workers is particularly difficult to overcome. We study the impacts of a large-scale job guarantee program that offered up to two years of fully subsidized employment to long-term unemployed individuals aged 50 and above. Using a sharp age-based discontinuity in eligibility, we find that participation increased regular, unsubsidized employment by 42 percentage points two years after the program ended. The gains are driven by transitions into new firms and industries, rather than continued subsidized employment, and we find no evidence of displacement effects for non-participants or spillovers to family members. The program had no measurable short-run health effects.

Paper download: link to latest version [RFBerlin WP] [CESIfo WP] [IZA DP] [slides]
- Status: submitted to a journal
- Media: derStandard, Kurier, Selektiv.
- X/Twitter: link (in German)

Intergenerational Mobility of Immigrants in 15 Destination Countries

joint with Leah Boustan*, Mathias Fjællegaard Jensen*, Ran Abramitzky*, Elisa Jácome*, Alan Manning*, Santiago Pérez*, Analysia Watley*, Adrian Adermon, Jaime Arellano-Bover, Olof Åslund, Marie Connolly, Nathan Deutscher, Anne C. Gielen, Yvonne Giesing, Yajna Govind, Dominik Hangartner, Yuyan Jiang, Cecilia Karmel, Fanny Landaud, Lindsey Macmillan, Isabel Z. Martínez, Alberto Polo, Panu Poutvaara, Hillel Rapoport, Sara Roman, Kjell G. Salvanes, Shmuel San, Michael Siegenthaler, Louis Sirugue, Javier Soria Espín, Jan Stuhler, Gianluca L. Violante, Dinand Webbink, Andrea Weber, Jonathan Zhang, Angela Zheng, and Tom Zohar. (* indicate lead authors)

We estimate intergenerational mobility of immigrants and their children in fifteen receiving countries. We document large income gaps for first-generation immigrants that diminish in the second generation. Around half of the second-generation gap can be explained by differences in parental income, with the remainder due to differential rates of absolute mobility. The daughters of immigrants enjoy higher absolute mobility than daughters of locals in most destinations, while immigrant sons primarily enjoy this advantage in countries with long histories of immigration. Cross-country differences in absolute mobility are not driven by parental country-of-origin, but instead by destination labor markets and immigration policy.

Paper download: link [IZA Discussion Paper][NBER WP]
- Status: R&R at AER
- Media: DiePresse
- BlueSky: link

Werther at Work: Intra-firm Spillovers of Suicides

with Bernhard Schmidpeter (WU Wien)

Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide and a critical public health concern. We examine the hypothesis of suicide contagion within in the workplace, investigating whether exposure to a coworker's suicide increases an individual's suicide risk. Using high-quality administrative data from Austria and an event study approach, we compare approximately 150,000 workers exposed to a coworker's suicide with a matched group exposed to a "placebo suicide". We find a significant increase in suicide risk for exposed individuals, with a cumulative treatment effect of 0.04 percentage points (33.3 percent) over a 20-year post-event period. Exposed individuals who also die by suicide are more likely to use the same method as their deceased coworker, strongly suggesting a causal link. Two placebo tests bolster this interpretation: workers who left the firm before the suicide and those exposed to a coworker's fatal car accident do not show an elevated suicide risk.

Paper download: latest version: link (last update August 2025) [IZA Discussion Paper] [slides]
- Status: R&R at EJ
- Media:
- X/Twitter: link

The Long-Term Effects of Military Occupations: Evidence from Post-World War II Austria

with Christoph Eder (formerly JKU) and Philipp Hilmbauer-Hofmarcher (CEU Vienna)

What are the long-run economic consequences of short-lived but intense institutional shocks? We study the post–World War II occupation of Austria, where the country was divided into Soviet and Western Allied zones for ten years before reunification. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design combined with a difference-in-differences approach, we show that areas initially occupied by Soviet forces remain significantly less economically developed today. These regions are less populated, host fewer and lower-paying jobs, and exhibit substantially higher rates of out-commuting than comparable areas in the former Western zones. We show that these persistent differences are driven by a large population flight triggered by the onset of the Soviet occupation, which durably shifted the spatial distribution of economic activity. This initial migration shock altered local agglomeration forces, leading to sustained regional divergence despite the restoration of a unified institutional framework. Our findings highlight how even temporary institutional shocks can have long-lasting economic effects.

Paper download: link (last update March 2026).
Note, this is a completely revised version of the IZA Discussion Paper No. 10095 (link) published originally in July 2016.
- Status: revised & re-submitted to European Economic Review
- Media: [OÖN]

Do Empty Beds Cause Cesarean Deliveries?

with Florian Bachner (GÖG) and Gerald J. Pruckner (JKU)

We examine how the number of beds available in a maternity ward affects the likelihood of cesarean delivery and maternal health. Our analysis is based on administrative data from Austria. We exploit idiosyncratic daily variation in the occupancy of maternity hospital beds. We find that empty beds increase the probability of cesarean delivery, hospitalization, and readmission. A one standard deviation decrease in maternity bed occupancy increases the probability of cesarean delivery by 4.0% and subsequent hospitalization by 5.8%. Expectant mothers may benefit from a crowded hospital, even at unfavorable patient-staff ratios, because it may lead to less harmful overtreatment..

Paper download: link, IZA-version: link
- Status: revising
- Slides: link

The Effect of Superstition on Health: Evidence from the Taiwanese Ghost Month

with Chia-Lun Liu (U Penn) and Jin-Tan Liu (NTU)

Superstition is a widespread phenomenon. We empirically examine its impact on health-related behavior and health outcomes. We study the case of the Taiwanese Ghost Month. During this period, which is believed to increase the likelihood of bad outcomes, we observe substantial adaptions in health-related behavior. Our identification exploits idiosyncratic variation in the timing of the Ghost Month across Gregorian calendar years. Using high-quality administrative data, we document for the period of the Ghost Months reductions in mortality, hospital admissions, and births. While the effect on mortality is a quantum effect, the latter two effects reflect changes in the timing of events. These findings suggest potential benefits of including emotional and cultural factors in public health policy.

Paper download: link (updated in October 2021)
- Slides: link

On the Origin and Composition of the German East-West Population Gap

with Christoph Eder (JKU) and Philipp Hilmbauer-Hofmarcher (CEU)

TWhat is the origin of the East–West gap in the German population? We use newly collected regional data and combine a regression discontinuity design in space with a difference-in-differences approach to document that a substantial share of the East–West population gap emerged in the immediate postwar period, several years prior to the establishment of the German Democratic Republic (GDR). The timing and spatial pattern of this migration wave are consistent with displacement drive by dire living conditions and exposure to violence during the Soviet advance rather than by avoidance of the later socialist regime. We further document pronounced changes in the skill composition of the population in affected regions. The resulting population gap remains remarkably sharp in space and continues to widen overtime. These patterns are equally evident when extending the analysis from border regions to all German counties.

Paper download: link (updated in February 2026)
- Status: revised and re-submitted to JOPE

Testing for Ethnic Discrimination in Outpatient Health Care: Evidence from a Field Experiment in German

with Christopher Kah (Mercedes-Benz AG) & Rupert Sausgruber (WU Vienna)

To test for ethnic discrimination in access to outpatient health care services, we carry out an email-correspondence study in Germany. We approach 3,224 physician offices in the 79 largest cities in Germany with fictitious appointment requests and randomized patients' characteristics. We find that patients' ethnicity, as signaled by distinct Turkish versus German names, does not affect whether they receive an appointment or wait time. In contrast, patients with private insurance are 31 percent more likely to receive an appointment. Holding a private insurance also increases the likelihood of receiving a response and reduces the wait time. This suggests that physicians use leeway to prioritize privately insured patients to enhance their earnings, but they do not discriminate persons of Turkish origin based on taste. Still, their behavior creates means-based barriers for economically disadvantaged groups.

Paper download: link (February 2022)
- Status: submitted to a journal
- Non-technical summary (in German): link
- Media: aerzteblatt.de
- Tweet: link

The Effect of Statutory Sick Pay on Workers’ Labor Supply and Subsequent Health

with Susanne Pech (JKU) and Martina Zweimüller (JKU)

Social insurance programs typically comprise sick-leave insurance. An important policy parameter is how the costs of lost productivity due to sick leave are shared between workers, firms, and the social security system. We show that this sharing rule affects not only absence behavior but also workers' subsequent health. To inform our empirical analysis, we propose a model in which workers' absence decisions are conditional on the sharing rule, health, and a dismissal probability. Our empirical analysis is based on high-quality administrative data sources from Austria. Identification is based on idiosyncratic variation in the sharing rule caused by different policy reforms and sharp discontinuities at certain job tenure levels and firm sizes. An increase in either the workers' or the firms' cost share, both at public expense, decreases the number of sick-leave days. Policy-induced variation in sick leave has a significant effect on subsequent healthcare costs. The average worker in our sample is in the domain of presenteeism, that is, an increase in sick leave due to reductions in workers' or firms' cost share would reduce healthcare costs and the incidence of workplace accidents.

Paper download: link (updated in January 2017)

Parental Response to Early Human Capital Shocks: Evidence from the Chernobyl Accident

with Martina Zweimüller (JKU)

Little is known about the response behavior of parents whose children are exposed to an early-life shock. We interpret the prenatal exposure of the Austrian 1986 cohort to radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident as a negative human capital shock. We can rely on exogenous variation in the exposure to radioactive fallout (over time and) between communities due to differences in precipitation at the time of the accident. Our approach provides robust empirical evidence for compensating investment behavior. Families with low socioeconomic status reduce their family size, while families with higher status respond with reduced maternal labor force participation.

Downloads: paper, web-appendix (updated in November 2014)

media: IZA Newsroom

Child Custody Law and Family Behavior: Evidence from Austria

with René Böheim (WU Vienna) and Marco Francesconi (U Essex)

We examine the effect of the introduction of joint custody after divorce on marriage, divorce, fertility, and female employment. Our analysis is based on Austrian individual-level administrative data, which cover the entire population. We em-ploy a difference-in-differences estimation approach and use older couples with out children, and couples from neighboring Germany, as a control group. Our estima-tion results suggest that the reform has significantly increased marriage and marital births rates and has reduced divorce rates and the likelihood of female employment.Our findings are robust to several sensitivity checks and confirm most of the results previously found for the US.

Paper download: in February 2016: [paper]

(A previous version of this paper was circulated under the title, "Does Custody Law Affect Family Behavior In and Out of Marriage?": old paper version)

Currently inactive papers:

Divorce and the Excess Burden of Lawyers, July 2007:
[paper] lost in a R&R
media: The Financial Times Undercover Economist

Bargaining at Divorce: The Allocation of Custody with Christine Hölzl December 2007:
[paper] lost in a R&R

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