Research
Last updated: April 23, 2024
Research interests
Economic Development, Technological Change & Growth; International Economics; Applied Panel and Time Series Econometrics; Diversity in Academia; Early Modern Asia (Qing China, Tokugawa/Meiji Japan)
Working Papers and Manuscripts Under Review
'Assessing market integration in the early modern period', with Daniel Bernhofen, Jianan Li, and Stephen Morgan, under revision
*Data for 209 Chinese prefectures*Data for 20 Belgian markets*Online Appendix*
This paper replaces:
'Assessing market (dis)integration in early modern China and Europe'
*CEPR DP 11288*CESifo WP No. 5580*Earlier Appendix* and
'The Evolution of Markets in China and Western Europe on the Eve of Industrialisation'
‘Finance, Growth, and Crises’ with Rachel Cho and Rodolphe Desbordes
Submitted February 2024*Earlier version: CEPR DP 17022*VoxEU column*
'How does democracy cause growth?' with Vanessa Boese-Schlosser
Submitted March 2024
[10min video summary of this paper (from 53:50); mention in O Globo article]
Work in Progress
‘Banking Crises and the International Transmission of Vulnerability’ with Jakob Madsen and Andrea Presbitero
'Democracy and Its Unequal Effect on Capital Inflows' with Hyunkang Lim and Andrea Presbitero
‘Stereotyping in Reference Letters: Evidence and Consequences’ (working title)
with Giovanni Facchini, Anna Hochleitner, Valeria Rueda and Fabio Tufano
'Sources of market disintegration in 18th century China' with Daniel Bernhofen, Jianan Li, and Stephen Morgan
Main Publications (including accepted and forthcoming papers)
'Democracy Doesn't Always Happen Over Night: Regime Change in Stages and Economic Growth'
The Review of Economics and Statistics (conditionally accepted), 2024 with Vanessa Boese-Schlosser
*WP version*CEPR DP 16587*Auxiliary analysis: Determinants of Episode Failure*
'Climate Change and Economic Prosperity: Evidence from a Flexible Damage Function'
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2024 with Rodolphe Desbordes
*WP version*Published version (gated)*
'Gender differences in reference letters: Evidence from the Economics Job Market'
Economic Journal, 2023 with Giovanni Facchini and Valeria Rueda
*Open Access*WP version*VoxEU column*
'Democracy, Growth, Heterogeneity and Robustness'
European Economic Review, 2022
*Online Appendix*Data & code*Published version (open access)*
'Commodity Prices and Banking Crises'
Journal of International Economics, 2021 with Andrea Presbitero
*Online Appendix*Replication Data*Published version (gated)*WP version*VoxEU column*
'Estimating and Testing the Multicountry Endogenous Growth Model'
Journal of International Economics, 2020 with Stef De Visscher and Gerdie Everaert
*Online Appendix*Data & Matlab code*Published version (gated)*WP version*
'The Magnitude of the Task Ahead: Macro Implications of Heterogeneous Technology'
The Review of Income and Wealth, 2020 with Francis Teal
*Data*xtmg*Online Appendix*Published Version (gated)*WP version*
'Public debt and growth: heterogeneity and non-linearity'
Journal of International Economics, 2015 with Andrea Presbitero
*Replication data & do files*Technical Appendix*Open Access Published Paper*VoxEU column.
Media coverage: Financial Times (7th April 2014)
'Do spillovers matter when estimating private returns to R&D?'
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2013 with Christian Helmers and Hubert Strauss
*Replication data & do files*xtmg*Online Appendix*Published Version (gated)*WP version*
'No Mangoes in the Tundra: Spatial Heterogeneity in Agricultural Productivity Analysis'
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2013 with Francis Teal
*Data*xtmg*Technical Appendix*Published Version (gated)*WP version*
'Structural Change and Cross-Country Growth Empirics'
World Bank Economic Review, 2013 with Francis Teal
*Data*xtmg*Supplemental Appendix*Published Version (Gated)*WP version*
'Econometrics for Grumblers: A New Look at the Literature on Cross-Country Growth Empirics'
Journal of Economic Surveys, 2011 with Francis Teal
*Published Version (gated)*WP version*
Other Publications
'Nonlinearities in the relationship between debt and growth: (no) evidence from over two centuries'
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2019
VoxEU talk (RES 2014). Column in The Conversation (May 2014). Media coverage: Financial Times (7th April 2014).
*Data (zipped Excel files)*Published Version (gated)*Technical Appendix*WP version*
'The Effect of Agricultural Technology on the Speed of Development'
World Development, 2018 with Dietz Vollrath
*Published Version (gated)*WP version*
'What Can Explain the Chinese Patent Explosion?'
Oxford Economic Papers, 2017 with Christian Helmers and Zhihong Yu
GEP Briefing; VoxEU. Media: FT Investment Adviser; China Daily; BBC World Service; Rathbones Review
*Published Version (gated)*WP version*
'From One to Many Central Plans: Drug Advertising Inspections and Intra-National Protectionism in China'
Journal of Comparative Economics, 2016 with Zheng Wang and Zhihong Yu
CSAE Newsletter summary*Published Version (gated)*WP version*
'Patent litigation in China: protecting rights or the local economy?'
Vanderbilt Journal of Entertainment & Technology Law, 2016 with Brian J. Love and Christian Helmers
*Published Version (ungated)*
Article in Intellectual Asset Management magazine (March/April 2016), iam blog entry. Article in Mitteilungen der Deutschen Patentanwalte (04/2017)
'The Heterogeneous Effect of Software Patents on Expected Returns: Evidence from India'
Economics Letters, 2016 with Marcel Fafchamps, Christian Helmers and Manasa Patnam
*Online Appendix*Published Version (gated)*WP version*
'It's not Technical Progress: Empirical TFP Determination and Structural Change'
Oxonomics, 2008.
*Published Version (gated)*WP version*
Older/Retired Working Papers
'Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in panel time series models' November 2013, with Stephen R Bond
*Data*xtmg*Online Appendix*
'Gravity' January 2019, with Rodolphe Desbordes *GEP WP 2019/02*
'Panel Estimation for Worriers' November 2010, with Anindya Banerjee and J James Reade
'The Role of Crop Type in Cross-Country Income Differences', April 2016, with Dietz Vollrath
*CEPR discussion paper DP11248*
'Untested Assumptions and Data Slicing: A Critical Review of Firm-Level Production Function Estimators' November 2019,
with Christian Helmers
Stata Routines
'Estimating discrete choice panel data models with interactive fixed effects', September 2017 (article introducing xtnlmg). Work in progress
'Estimating panel time series models with heterogeneous slopes.' Stata Journal Vol.12(1), pp. 61-71, April 2012 (article introducing xtmg).
'MULTIPURT: Stata module to run 1st and 2nd generation panel unit root tests for multiple variables and lags' IDEAS: Statistical Software Components, February 2011.
'Panel time-series modeling: New tools for analyzing xt data' Presentation providing an overview of macro panel methods, given at the UK Stata User Group Meeting, September 2011.
'XTCD: Stata module to investigate Variable/Residual Cross-Section Dependence' IDEAS: Statistical Software Components, February 2011.
'XTMG: Stata module to estimate panel time series models with heterogeneous slopes' IDEAS: Statistical Software Components, February 2011.
Background Papers, Books and Book Chapters
'Empirical Development Economics' with Mans Soderbom and Francis Teal (lead authors), Simon Quinn and Andrew Zeitlin. Book manuscript, Routledge UK. Three chapters on Panel Time Series econometrics (publication date: September 2014)
'Growth, Employment, and Industry in Nigeria' with Francis Teal, in: Volker Treichel (ed.) Putting Nigeria to Work: A Strategy for Employment and Growth, Chapter 3, Washington: The World Bank, June 2010.
'Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire: Changing Places' with Francis Teal, in: Institut de Haute Études Internationales et du Développement (eds.) Revue internationale de politique de développement – Afrique: 50 Ans d'Indépendance, pp.33-49, Graduate Institute, 2010.
Cross-country Growth Empirics for Grumblers: Modelling Technology in Agriculture and Manfuacturing using Cross-country Panel Datasets, Saarbrücken: VDM Verlag, 2010. ISBN: 978-3-639-22559-4. (DPhil thesis)
'The Empirics of Economic Growth: A Dual Economy Approach' in: United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (eds.) Growth, Exports and Technological Change in Developing Countries: Contributions from Young Scholars, pp.9-21, Vienna: UNIDO, 2009.
'Extent and Causes of Global Shifts in Manufacturing' with Francis Teal, October 2007, Background Paper: UNIDO Industrial Development Report 2009 (Chapters 2, 4-5).
'China, the WTO, and the End of the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing' with John Thoburn, in: Zhang, H. (ed.) Marginalization in China, Ashgate, 2007.
'Challenges to Vietnam in the global garment and textile value chain' with John Thoburn, Khalid Nadvi, and Chris Edwards, in: Guliani, E., R. Rabellotti and M. P. van Dijk (eds.) Clusters Facing Competition: The Importance of External Linkages, Ashgate, 2005.
Earlier Publications on Manufacturing Sourcing & guanxi
As a result of my previous work at the University of Bath I have a number of publications on sourcing strategies for manufacturing in China and on the changing nature of guanxi. More information can be found here.