Trends Newsletter

ICA TRENDS Oct 2021


Record-Breaking Disasters Across World Have Root Cause in Common: Human Activity

全球各地破紀錄的災害導因的共同點:人類的活動

"The solutions we conceive of as a global society must allow for interconnected

ways of solving multiple problems at once.", Common Dreams, September 8, 2021

「我們以全球的角度所構思出的解決方案,必須同時解決這些多面向、彼此連結的問題。」

(Chinese follows English 中文請往下捲動)

A slew of recent record-breaking disasters that took place in faraway places across the world shouldn't be seen in isolation but as interconnected events for which human activity is a major root cause, according to a United Nations report released Wednesday.

The study (pdf), released by the UN University's Institute for Environment and Human Security, took a "deep dive" into 10 extreme events that occurred in 2020 and 2021 that "were not only disastrous for people and the environment but were also the symptoms of underlying processes ingrained in our society."

Such events include the Amazon wildfires, which were "fueled by global appetite"; Cyclone Amphan, which showed what happens "when a cyclone and a pandemic combine"; the Arctic heatwave, which was evidence of the world "spiraling into a climate disaster"; and the extinction of the Chinese Paddlefish—a "fish that survived the dinosaur extinction but not humankind."

Joining the list was the Arctic heat wave in 2020, which the study directly links to the Texas cold wave. "Increasing temperatures in the Arctic influence the stability of the polar jet stream, a spinning mass of air above the North Pole, allowing cold air to move southward into North America," researchers wrote.

“When people see disasters in the news, they often seem far away,” said UNU-EHS senior scientist Dr. Zita Sebesvari, a lead author of the new report. “But even disasters that occur thousands of kilometres apart are often related to one another and can have consequences for people living in distant places."

The study singles out three categories of root causes most commonly linked to the analyzed events—greenhouse gas emissions, insufficient disaster risk management, and an undervaluing of the environmental costs of development and governance decisions.

Given the interconnection between the events and overlapping root causes, the report warns against "fragmented responses." It also says the rapidly changing world means that "the past is no longer a reliable source in planning for future development or risk reduction."

But a change in tack in dealing with extreme disasters is indeed urgent, the report says. "The window of opportunity is closing; while some impacts outlined in this report are irreversible, such as the extinction of the Chinese Paddlefish, others require swift intervention to avoid passing tipping points where long-term impacts can no longer be avoided."

Behavior-influencing measures like "taxing fossil fuels could discourage the emitting of GHGs and enable the transition to climate neutrality," the report states. More broadly, the publication calls for policymakers to pursue "win-win-win" solutions that harness interconnectivity "to reduce the severity of impacts cascading from disastrous events and therefore the emerging risks they contribute to."

One such example is reducing deforestation, which would provide numerous benefits such as helping mitigate the climate emergency, protecting biodiversity, and reducing the spread of zoonotic diseases.

Inaction is a sure pathway to future disasters, the report warns.

"The failure to address interconnected root causes and emerging risks is accelerating the climate crisis, creating new and more intense extreme events, increasing societal vulnerabilities, and leading us to tipping points including mass extinctions and loss of ecosystem services," the report states. "The solutions we conceive of as a global society must confront these systemic issues and allow for interconnected ways of solving multiple problems at once."

"We must try to maximize risk reduction and adaptation benefits across multiple sectors," the report adds, "and for different members of society locally and globally to avoid the rise of inequalities."

Our work is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). Feel free to republish and share widely.


最近在許多遠方的地區發生多次大規模的災難,不應該是單一事件,而應該是連鎖性事件,根據聯合國在週三發佈的報告所指,其中根本的導因就是人類的活動。

這份報告 study (pdf)是由聯合國大學環境與人類安全研究所所發表,深入探索20202021年發生的十個重大「不僅為人類與環境帶來災害,也影響深植社會過程中的一些徵兆」的天災。

這其中包括亞馬遜森林大火,因為「全球越來越大的胃口」;印度洋安攀氣旋,因為「當安攀跟疫情同時發生就會變這樣」;北極熱浪,證明這個世界「轉進了氣候的災難」:還有中國白鱘的絕種,「在恐龍的世界存活但無法在人類的世界存活」。

列入單的還有2020年的北極熱浪,經研究發現是與德州的冰風暴有直接關係。研究專家表示:「北極溫度的升溫影響極鋒噴射氣流的穩定度,也就是北極大氣的大量空氣氣流,讓冷風南下移至北美洲。」

「大家在新聞上看到天災時,」聯合國大學資深科學家、同時也是這份最新報告作者 Dr. Zita Sebesvari博士表示,「但是即使間隔數千萬公里的天災,往往仍有其關連性,對於居住在偏遠地區的人也會有所影響。」

這份報告也點出與這些事件相關的三項最常見的導因類型溫室氣體排放、防災風險管理不足、發展與治理決策所導致的環境成本的低估。

也因為這些事件的根本原因以及重疊的導因,這份報告也警告大家不要「做出片段式的回應」,並表示這個快速變化的世界意味著「規劃未來和計畫減緩風險時,過去的經驗已經不是可以絕對參考的源頭。」

但是在因應嚴重災害時,策略的改變是急需的。這份報告表示:「機會的窗口已經快要關閉,雖然報告中所指出的一些影響已經無法修復,像是白鱘的絕種,還是可以做出一些快速的應變,免讓一些長遠的影響再也躲不掉。」

可以影響行為的一些作為,像是報告中所言「針對化石燃料易科稅金可以阻止溫室氣體排放,促使轉型成氣候中和」。更廣泛地說,這份報告呼籲政策決策者推動「多贏」的措施,利用大家互相連結的力量來「降低災害事件所帶來的嚴重衝擊,也降低這些帶來的極大風險」。

其中一個例子就是減少森林的砍伐,這樣會帶來很多的效益,幫助減緩氣候的緊急狀況,保護生物多樣化,減少人畜共通傳染病的傳播。

無作為肯定會在未來帶來災害,這份報告如此警示。

「因無法解決這些息息相關的根本原因,延伸出的風險也讓氣候危機更嚴重,引發更多、新的嚴重事件,讓社會更脆弱,逼我們來到一個臨界點,包括大量物種的絕種、生態系統服務的流失,」報告點出:「我們以全球的角度所構思出的解決方案,必須解決這些系統性的議題,同時解決這些多面向、彼此連結的問題。」

「我們必須努力盡量降低風險,在多重的區塊中作出調整,」報告也說明:「讓當地與全球的社會的不同成員一起避免讓不平等的狀態繼續惡化。」

本文透過知識共享 (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). 平台授權刊登,歡迎分享。原文出處: Common Dreams, September 8, 2021

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