23/12/2025. Lots of snow for parts of the Alps this week! Here we show maps of total amount of snow that has fallen in cm (not snow depth itself!) between the 20th and 24th of December for the  CTL and the +1.5K warmer run. Contours show the mean (vertically) integrated water when above 20 mm. The bottom row shows snowfall as a function of (model) altitude, with each dot a grid-location (within the red box on the top).  Details: HCLIM46-AROME, 2.5km, taken from the continuous run, only MA00.

What is interesting about these plots is the stark difference between low-altitude regions where snowfall clearly decreases with warming, and the high-altitudes regions where snowfall increases, even quite strongly! This is in line with existing research that shows that areas that are still cold enough to produce snowfall even in the future (warmer) climates might see an increase, especially in extremer conditions such as the once seen this week. One of the main fuelling engines at work here is the larger water holding capacity of the (warmer) atmosphere. Displayed here in the contours of the maps, it is clear that on average in the peak-regions the total column contains about 10-20% percent more moisture in the 1.5K warmer simulation.

Linked in: here