Specific Cases

On this page, we list some further details on specific cases:

Snowfall Netherlands (January 2026)
Alps snowfall (December 2025)
Italy floods & Storm Hans (April 2025)

Snowfall in the Netherlands / January 2026

Update 8/January.. With a new storm depression, snow is coming in. But in the warmer run it is mostly rain.

Interesting times for those of you who love snow! Two days back I posted on Linkedin (https://lnkd.in/eSyS6aqY) about the current snowy week in the Netherlands (and how it could have looked in a cooler or warmer climate, given similar large-scale circulation). Here is an update with an image of the snowdeck on Jan 6 and a link to an animation of how the (modelled) snowcover evolved over time, in current climate (middle) and in a globally cooler climate (-1.5 degree cooler than present day, left), and a 1.5 degree warmer climate. Overlain shaded contours are snow-precipitation (taken at hourly frequency, the snow deck evolution is unfortunately daily, so sometimes there is a mismatch where snow is falling but the snowdeck is lagging behind or already there... apologies). While the total amount of precipitation (snow+rain) in the warmer climates is higher than in present day, it is very clear that the amount of snow is much less. It is simply too warm and most precipitation fell as rain or as very wet snow. Of course the melting is also increased strongly.Let's see how the coming days unfold. The models are not quite decided yet. Have a look at our KNMI klimaatbericht (in Dutch): https://lnkd.in/euxXmibE

Snowfall in the Alps / December 2025

23/12/2025. Lots of snow for parts of the Alps this week! Here we show maps of total amount of snow that has fallen in cm (not snow depth itself!) between the 20th and 24th of December for the CTL and the +1.5K warmer run. Contours show the mean (vertically) integrated water when above 20 mm. The bottom row shows snowfall as a function of (model) altitude, with each dot a grid-location (within the red box on the top). Details: HCLIM46-AROME, 2.5km, taken from the continuous run, only MA00.

What is interesting about these plots is the stark difference between low-altitude regions where snowfall clearly decreases with warming, and the high-altitudes regions where snowfall increases, even quite strongly! This is in line with existing research that shows that areas that are still cold enough to produce snowfall even in the future (warmer) climates might see an increase, especially in extremer conditions such as the once seen this week. One of the main fuelling engines at work here is the larger water holding capacity of the (warmer) atmosphere. Displayed here in the contours of the maps, it is clear that on average in the peak-regions the total column contains about 10-20% percent more moisture in the 1.5K warmer simulation.

Linked in: here

Snowfall amounts between 20-24 December 2025 stratified as a function of elevation. Each dot represents a gridpoint within the red rectangle (maps). The lines are elevation-aggregated 98% quantile values (0-4000m grouped per 500m)

Snapshot from (KNMI internal) PGW website (24/12/2025 18UTC), showing results from the 12km RACMO model (RACMO is fed by ECMWF forecasts, and in turn is feeding HCLIM46-AROME). From top to bottom: snowdepth, QVI (total water column) and Dewpoint. Left: Present-day. Other columns, cooler and warmer climate responses (absolute differences). For the dewpoint response (bottom row), a white contour is used where the change equals the applied level of global warming. One can see that the dewpoint response over the bitterly cold central Europe is mostly exceeding the level of warming. Also visible is the moisture rich (high QVI) air that is coming from the Mediterranean and that is hitting the Alps.

Italy floods / April 2025

Precipitation associated with Storm Hans in the current climate, as simulated with HCLIM43-AROME at 2.5km resolution. Below we show some snapshots from the output of the driving RCM (12km, RACMO). Clearly visible is the large meander of the jet, and the narrow region of cold air, leading eventually to the cutoff low. Over the Mediterranean the cold air leads to strong latent heat fluxes, and some of that evaporating moisture may have ended up in the precipitation event. Past and future climates follow at a later stage. See more info here: linkedin post

wind 300hPa

wind 850hPa

temp 500hPa

surface latent heat flux

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